Saturday Racing - Newcastle, Newmarket & Windsor

Varying ground conditions expected at different courses this afternoon, all of which most likely being on the soft side. Newcastle has performed admirably to avoid being called off, considering the deluge of rain that battered the North East coast on Thursday. All in all, I am hopeful that despite the weather, having had a break from racing this last seven days and with plenty of races to choose from this afternoon, that we can hopefully have some runners perform at decent prices this afternoon!

Ascot Day Five - Please Give Me Some Ayr!

The final day of Ascot has arrived, and it could not have come sooner, after a weak of treacherous and unpredictable weather has made it a tough event to get to grips with. Some near misses at 9-2, 16-1 and 28-1 advised prices meant some good fortune was returning, but also bad luck as Black Spirit came within a neck of putting us in actual profit for the meeting! Clearly it was not meant to be!

I feel I am over my mini blip that came to existence earlier this week and know full well we have had a run of several fairly good weekends, and I do not want that to discontinue just yet. Therefore, with full motivation to score a winner on the day ahead I knowingly dive into the form book to look for my value bets!

Ascot Day Four - Keep It Simple

Day Four of the Royal Ascot meeting takes place on Friday afternoon with the rain having made a sizeable impact on the ground. The conditions have changed to 'soft' all round and we all know that Ascot on a wet day, with the rain in the ground, can be a true stamina test over any distance. With a two mile event scheduled this afternoon as well, this will no doubt separate the men from the boys.

I am staying positive and going back to basic rules of betting. Hopefully by keeping it simple, we get back amongst the winners.

Ascot So Far And Lessons Learned

Tough, is one way of describing Ascot so far. Not one winner and only a couple of placings. Desperate indeed. A prolonged period of excellent results have proceeded Royal Ascot, so before we reach a desperate spell of bad for, it is time to look at what has possibly been going wrong these last few days.

One thing that is quite difficult at Ascot is that most of the races have the 'correct' race favourite. On a Saturday, this is quite often not the case and I can take advantage, but at Ascot I often am trying to analyse a race when I think the favourite is most likely to win. In such an event I should be ignoring the race in it's entirety, but because it is Royal Ascot I take my chance.

That however, does not excuse the fact that I am way off the mark with many of my selections. Otherwise I would at least be finishing second or third with the majority of my picks. Another thing that has been going wrong though, is the weather. I have not been able to gauge how dry or wet the ground is likely to be on any given day and with trainers less likely to pull their runners out due to ground conditions, some of our bets have clearly not enjoyed themselves. On a normal Saturday we would at least be getting our money back, as trainers wait for another day to score!

Lastly, where I believe I have been going wrong over the first three days is by trying to bet in races that I do not fully investigate and am not experienced in. 2yo events are races I would bypass on a regular racing day, and the same should apply to Royal Ascot as they are very difficult to interpret. Often the winner of these races comes from a late market move and by that point, my analysis and bets are already complete.

Before I head into Day Four of the meeting, I need to make it clear in my own mind as to what is exactly value. I am not downhearted as by backing at the prices I like to bet on, the money lost will eventually come back at some stage. I just need to make sure it is in stages, and not chase a big priced winner just for the sake of it!

Day Four will be online before Midday. Time to start a new run of form!

Ascot Day Three - Rainy Days Are Here Again

Ascot hosts Ladies Day on the third day of the Royal meeting this afternoon and as yet, we have a fat zero in the winners column on the blog! Those that know how I work though know that it is not winners that matter, just the theory of maintaining a good discipline (which was lacking yesterday) and only backing value.

I made some serious misjudgements yesterday and my process of selections seemed to cater for 'good' ground with slight ease in it. Ultimately, with some record times almost getting beaten, the ground was clearly almost good to firm, and as such my anticipated value selections found some of the races to be over before they began. That said, only Reliable Man and Lay Time featured in a finish from all of my selections and neither would possibly have won in any case.

Time for an improvement!

Ascot Day Two - Drying Out Before The Storm

Relaxed, ready and motivated is a description that could be assigned to myself ahead of Day Two of Royal Ascot this afternoon. This is arguably one of the more difficult days racing with a couple of huge fields to contend with in the Jersey Stakes (Group 3) and the Royal Hunt Cup Handicap (Class 2). Other racing meanwhile also looks fiendishly difficult and so it is time, I forget the near misses of yesterday and carry out a  somewhat convoluted mission in finding value of the highest order.

Ascot Day One - Finding The Value

Day One of Royal Ascot on Tuesday starts with the second most anticipated race of the whole meeting. Frankel will reignite feverish media attention when he enters the parade ring ahead of his assignment to win the Queen Anne Stakes and his seventh Group 1 prize.

Other Group 1's on the card on this opening day will be the King's Stand Stakes and the St James's Palace Stakes to make the opening day, one to enjoy!

Be warned though,  that due to working commitments my usual routine of studying form in the early morning hours before proceeding with a detailed analysis has been scuppered for this opening day. Instead I began to review some of the contenders racing, on Sunday afternoon and have resurrected my write up in the late hours of Monday night. It is a known entity, that I am best when fresh, so tread very carefully!

Sunday Briefing

A couple of interesting races on Sunday which include the French Oaks at Chantilly and a typically competitive sprint race over 6f at Salisbury. I will offer an opinion for both, but there is no guarantee that I will engage in a bet myself as I am looking more towards Royal Ascot at this late stage. Five days of racing and plenty of form revision will have to be done between now and next Saturday. 

I am only hopeful that the good run continues and that I do not suffer from a total burnout in the process! Three days booked off work, should help a little at least!

Future Of The Oddspundit Blog

The year of 2012 has so far been quite stunning for the Oddspundit blog. An Antepost bet on Synchronised for Cheltenham was coupled with a dip into the big odds offered on Neptune Collonges for the Grand National. Two of the biggest races on the jumping calendar and gaining a profit in both.

The flat season began with a bang and the big race predictions continued with a successful prediction of the first three finishers in the 2000 Guineas. Correctly also identified were the first three home in the Derby at Epsom and the outstanding punt landed on Samitar for the Irish 1000 Guineas at an advised Betfair price of 39-1.

Saturday Racing Preview - Sandown and York

There is a moderate number of fairly decent races on offer this afternoon with the big racing ahead next week at Royal Ascot. York and Sandown offer the televised racing with a female rider Class 3 event, three Class 2 handicaps and a Listed event limited to 3yo's. I am not yet sure where my interests for the day will come from, but I am sure we can find at least a couple of overpriced runners to give us a good run for our money.

After a couple of midweek disappointments I am keen to get back in the winners enclosure ahead of Tuesday and the mammoth test that awaits.

Midweek Haydock Punt

With not a great deal to look forward to this weekend I thought I would try my hand at a midweek Class 3 affair at Haydock, to compensate. Finding value is what I am all about and I have nominated the 3.50 Trust Inns Publican Handicap as the race to try and attain my rewards.

One of my biggest rules in betting is to try and pinpoint a seemingly dodgy favourite and in the form of Ittirad we may possibly have one. Trained by Roger Varian, this horse will be reappearing on track some 49 days after disappointing in heavy ground at Epsom. Obviously well regarded by his trainer he has yet to prove himself and it was readily noticed how well he was backed in the market before his seasonal debut, only to disappoint once again. Accusations by the race reporter that day insinuating that he may possibly have needed the run, does not quite follow logic as he had won on his debut the previous season and with market support was expected to flourish in that race.

Sunday Betting Views

We are having a smashing season, so much so that I have decided to see if I can topple the professional tipsters on racing-index.com as well as the semi pro punters that engulf the gg.com Tipzone leaderboards. All in all I could not be more pleased, though I still have lurking in the back of my mind, the severe and utter shambolic failure to include my Chester Cup selections (1st and 4th) and my Oaks prediction (1st) on this chart. I had an excuse by being a bit confused, totally lost, and tired on a stag do with the latter though!

Everyone makes mistakes and despite this I still rate very highly on gg.com (see Leaderboard) and my latest results should appear on racing-index over the next few weeks. It may prove to be that I have missed the boat by proofing my selections in a professional manner with them too late, after already having so many winners already in 2012! 

Anyway, this post is about racing on Sunday and there are a couple of interesting contests scheduled. The Silver Stakes at The Curragh is my main interest, but I will try to offer a view on the Gold Cup at Perth for anyone reading today who enjoys a Summer bet on the National Hunt scene.

Saturday Preview - Racing on Channel 4

In my three years since I created the blog, and snatched the Oddspundit URL, I have only once failed to blog for a Saturday afternoon of racing. Not a bad effort really, is it? After considerable rain though over the last week I am bemused over whether we should risk any of our 2012 profits when there is likely to be very little racing going to form.

However I am certain if we look thoroughly we will notice at least one or two will have been priced up incorrectly after their recent efforts. The televised racing this afternoon comes from Chester, Doncaster and Newmarket, but many of the good handicappers and all of the Group runners are now at home awaiting Royal Ascot. I will have a look to see if any gems can be unearthed, but I definitely am not expecting any miracles today!

EURO 2012 - Bets Of Interest

In addition to my earlier preview of the Euro 2012 tournament that will begin on Friday the 8th of June, I now find myself searching for potential value bets to keep the tournament an entertaining and interesting spectacle throughout.

Here are some of the hopeful gems that I have found and reasons why I believe them to be fair value selections: -

Zetland Gold Cup - Quick Analysis

The Zetland Gold Cup is the feature event this Diamond Jubilee Bank Holiday Monday, live from Redcar. A strong looking and competitive event run over a distance of 1m 2f featuring 11 runners.

In 2010 I was successful with the winner Forte Dei Marmi and by pinpointing runner up Sweet Lightning, but I never got close to suggesting 2011 rank outsider winner Nanton, and I hope this afternoon I can get back to winning ways in the event, to continue the success of the blog.

French Derby - Prix Du Jockey Club Preview

This afternoon Chantilly will play host to the Prix Du Jockey Club, better known to English racegoers as the French Derby. This is more of a speed test than the other Western European equivalents courtesy of its reincarnation in 2005 as a 1m 2 1/2f contest.

This is my final day in Magaluf and finally we have seen some rain, so what better way to spend my final few hours, looking for another Classic result. When it comes to the big races I can always find an angle and substantiate my argument with an alternative thought process to many others in the industry.

I do not have time for ratings, all I am interested in are the key elements in terms of ground, trainer, distance, course, draw and best odds. Ratings can be too deceptive an evaluation of a horses performance with conditions so variable throughout the course of a season. With the added fact that plenty of horses develop at different speeds, anyone reliant on them will struggle to gain results in the very biggest races.

Quick Picks For Saturday Racing

Still warm, still on a Stag Do! Perfect qualifications then for an attempt at beating the Bookmakers and layers on Epsom Derby Day. The Derby itself is quite possibly done and dusted in terms of the winner, but there may be some value in the without favourite market I would expect.

By now I feel accustomed to the Spanish keyboard layout and am almost certainly good to go, after a quiet evening in only a couple of Magaluf bars last night.

Here are a few small bets of interest, that I am planning for Saturday. Hopefully the illegal Bookmakers here in Spain will be happy to settle some of them. However, I am drowning in Euros and need to speculate, not accumulate them even more!

Epsom Derby Day - Dash Study

An alarmingly rushed Derby Day form study and write up comes from a sun drenched Magaluf in Spain. The very best of my brain cells have been killed or tormented by a flurry of San Miguel pints, but the passion for racing still encourages me to look, at the very least, for value on this illustrious day.

The only race though I have a potential investment in, comes courtesy of the Epsom Dash. My brain tells me that any further involvement in the days racing could prove costly! Hopefully when back on English soil, we can regain the winning momentum and continue on our surge for profit.