Every Winning Run Comes To An End, And For Me That End May Come In Spain!

Steady profit is what betting on racing is all about and this weekend continued the recent success story of the blog and my own selections. I have no contacts, no inside info, just an eye for a bookmaking misjudgement and fellow punter waywardness.

Admittedly I know from previous seasons that this tends to be my time of year. Keeping the focus on high quality televised races can often be difficult to sustain a profit, as Bookmakers tighten their grip on these bigger markets in general. In such circumstances the recent results have been quite unbelievable and the statistics back this up.

According to the gg.com Tipzone Leaderboard, this blog has shown a growth of 69% since I began recording my selections and is placed #4 on the All Time chart. Considering I forgot to register my Chester Cup winner, this is pretty good! I do not actually ever display my staking recommendation on these pages nowadays, as I would always seemingly suggest moderate stakes in typical fashion for those that tended to win! Isn't that usually the case, though?

Changes are on the horizon this week however and on Wednesday morning, I unfortunately find myself heading to Spain for a Stag Party in Magaluf. This untimely jaunt means I will not be totally dedicated and focused on the Classic weekend at Epsom, where the Oaks and Derby will take place. This is a double disappointment as I was looking forward to the hattrick, having given out 54-1 and 79-1 Betfair winners on the Derby Saturday, in each of the last two seasons! (Search the blog, it is all there for those that wish not to believe!)

Not to be outdone, I will be planning my drinking/sunbathing around my Epsom revision, where I expect to be joined in a Magaluf Internet Cafe by 20+ shouting little Spanish kids playing Warcraft. I may need to take a stun gun to keep these little amigos in check, as my ability to revise the form needs careful precision and a relaxing, quiet atmosphere.

A rest though may do us all some good and any write ups from now until the 8th of June will be sparsely populated. Hopefully these shorter pieces will maintain an overall level of accuracy and conform to the profitable nature I am trying to exhibit. There is always room for improvement and I will not be resting up, with plenty more big races to come over Summer!

Please share the profit and give the blog a shout out on Facebook and Twitter where possible!

Many thanks!

MC - Oddspundit

Irish 1000 Guineas and Sunday Bets

Sunday is here and I am sober, which is often great news and thankfully there is plenty of quality racing to make not being hungover worthwhile. The Irish 1000 Guineas is the main highlight in the UK, with a supporting Tattersalls Gold Cup being the high standard Group 1, to add to the mix. There are also two Group 1's courtesy of racing at Longchamp and that kindly makes Sunday, the best racing day of this week.

I was quite fortunate in some respects yesterday, but you make your own luck in this world and winners are winners when all said and done. There will be more speculative efforts today, and it may be that you decide only to bet on them, if you feel that you are in agreement with me.

Saturday Racing Preview - Best Bets

A whopping NINE races will be televised live on Channel 4 this afternoon, which from memory is the largest number I have ever witnessed from their two hour long show. Races from each of Goodwood, Haydock and York, plus additional Classic 2000 Guineas action from The Curragh are all scheduled, on what looks set to be quite fast ground almost everywhere.

The good thing about fast ground is that the best horses win, but it can mean less value as favourites tend to have a bigger say. There are still chances and mispriced selections though, and that is what I am hoping to find this afternoon.

Listed Fillies At Goodwood

One race on Thursday offers the potential to be rewarding for punters, despite there only being 7 runners engaged in the 3.45 Height Of Fashion Stakes (Listed). The contest is run over a distance of 1m 1f 192yds and looks a decent contest for 3yo fillies.

I have carried out my research and pinpointed a possible dutch bet for those wishing to play it more safely. This involves two runners against the field, which I am very hopeful will prove a wise investment as we head into a thrilling weekend of racing in the UK and Ireland.

EURO 2012 PREVIEW - FOOTBALL THIS SUMMER

After a fiery and captivating domestic league campaign, featuring a duel between two neighbouring football clubs from Manchester, and a miraculous European Cup winning journey from Chelsea, we now await in great anticipation for the European Championships 2012 from Poland and Ukraine.

Here I talk about the possibility of a shock and who exactly are the possible value bets for success, or present themselves as a valuable trade later on in the tournament. This tournament promises to be a great Summer of football, but England fans be warned, it might not be for us.

Small Sunday Bet At Ripon

Only one Class 2 handicap in Great Britain this afternoon, which comes from Ripon at 3.40. A field of eight gather to compete in a race almost guaranteed to be run at a solid pace courtesy of the speedy Dunno. With pace guaranteed and a smallish field counted for as added value for hold up runners, my selection is the Ruth Carr trained DUBAI DYNAMO.


He was runner up in this race last season off a mark 3lb lower and went onto win over C&D next time out in a lesser grade. His overall course form when not given an impossible draw is very good and with the race pace set up to suit, he should go well.

Chief danger is Osteopathic Remedy who may have preferred further rain and is very tightly matched on current ratings with the selection. The improving Silvery Moon should also not be far away and may make up the top three.

9-2 is the best price available on the selection and I feel this is a fair price should EIGHT runners remain lined up! A bet in running could also yield a bigger profit as he generally trades at bigger odds when winning, due to his early placement being behind in his races.

Racing On Saturday - Best Bets at Newbury

Frankel stars on what should be an insatiable Saturday afternoon of not just racing action, but sport in general, providing of course that you like football too. Channel 4 racing has designated itself to the southern courses of Newbury and Newmarket for their coverage this afternoon, with no doubt the main focus will be Frankel and the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes.

My bets will be few and far between on the racing front but there is one horse I am quietly intrigued by and think will run very well. Let us hope that profit arrives this afternoon, in any case.

York Day Three - The Value Calculator is Out!

Day Three of the Dante Festival has arrived and there is a decent card awaiting those still trying hard to end the meeting in profit. Fury was a courageous winner on Day Two and happily backed early by myself at 13-2 (3-1SP) to make it an acceptable afternoon. I am hoping for an improvement further still on Friday with the highlight on the card being the Sportingbet Yorkshire Cup (Group 2).

There is clearly still room for improvement and I hope I can end the three day betting experience on a high with one or two enterprising, value selections.

York Day Two - Quick Picks

York Day Two and the feature race of the whole three day meeting takes place on Thursday afternoon courtesy of the Derby Trial that is the Dante Stakes. I have revised the form for the televised races and here I will quickly give details of them.

York Dante Festival - Day One Analysis

There are four races on terrestrial television on Wednesday as the Channel 4 cameras continue their consistent racing coverage with a visit to the Knavesmire for the three day Dante Festival. As it is midweek racing, I do not have the same capacity to enjoy the visual aspect of the sport live, due to working commitments. However I still use the same logic in preparation and hope to end the day in profit with a few well advised bets.

Recent form has been good, but overconfidence can be wounding, so we will tread carefully and try not to place our faith in mediocre priced participants and non-value selections.

The Dante Festival at York is the Next Target and the GG.COM Tipzone League

The Dante Festival is the highlight of the midweek racing calendar, with the three day meeting scheduled to begin on Wednesday. Ground conditions will be verging on soft, but will more than likely remain good to soft on the opening day giving plenty of horses a winning chance.

With a recent improvement in my own form, despite still having a fair share of unlucky results, I am hopeful we may be able to find a couple of betting treats for each day. With the runners yet to be finalised I cannot be certain of any bet at present, but I am expecting to invest on at least two of three occasions before the weekend.

Do not miss out. I am on a quest to reach the higher echelons of horse racing analysis and form reading,  having set myself a target of reaching the elite, amongst those competing on the GG.COM Tipzone League.

Having started to vet my blog predictions after the Aintree Festival via GG.COM I currently lie 15th on their All-Time list of 'guessers' with 24 selections having been made so far. Other figures show a growth in betting bank of 41% and a 33% strike rate. This would have been more, but for initially tipping my long shots to win only and forgetting to add my Chester Cup selections.

It is early days yet, but I am keen to look up the league table, rather than down it, with a fair 347 active tipsters taking part! I love a challenge and having won the Betfair Forum Premier Division Competition in my younger days, I know I will master it eventually.

Saturday Racing - Preview and Thoughts for Victoria Cup and Other Ascot Races (Part 2)

Ascot today has the unenviable conditions of soft on the straight course and heavy conditions on the round circuit. Whatever races horses are entered for this afternoon there, they will need stamina in abundance and preferably they will have raced well or won over further than the trip they are tested by today!

The main target at Ascot will be to find the winner of the Victoria Cup which is a 24 runner battle over a straight seven furlongs. Hopefully we can find some good value at bigger prices, having only found short priced selections earlier this morning for the racing at Lingfield.

Saturday Racing - Preview and Thoughts (Part 1 - Lingfield)

There are small glimpses of form starting to arise and I am slowly but surely beginning to abscond my natural ability to chase an improbable betting dream. I feel I am at the stage now where I should be betting strategically and using my initiative. How this will pan out I am not certain, but gung-ho bets on big priced selections is clearly not the way forward, as so often they find one or two just that little bit better, finishing in front.

Today, the best of the racing action comes from Lingfield and Ascot, but only Ascot will feature turf racing as Lingfield has suffered from a deluge of rain this week, that has forced them to use their All Weather surface for their biggest racecard of the season. Hopefully that measure, on their part, will not impede any of my forthcoming selections and we can all still enjoy a profitable day.

Chester Day One - Chester Cup Preview

The start of the flat season on the Roodee beckons with the Chester May Meeting getting underway on Wednesday. The showcase feature race on the opening day being the Stanjames.com Chester Cup where 16 runners this year will hustle and bustle their way around the track over a 2m 2f 147yd trip.

Newmarket 1000 Guineas Preview & Televised Racing Thoughts

With the 1000 Guineas just hours away it is time to get my head into the form book for one last time, as I try to understand and convey what each fillie's capabilities are, so early in the season. Yesterday my early week preview for the colts Classic which was run yesterday saw me predict the first three home correctly, which I am told would have paid out just over £303 had I done a small tricast for a £1 combination stake.

Where it went wrong for myself yesterday is that I got too enthused by outsider Hermival, to the point where I started to believe that he could not lose. Before my eyes, I saw a visibly impressive, inexperienced colt would could match up to the very best his age group had to offer. Another error came after I had written up my own preview, I began to read other people's thoughts which ultimately changed my own mind, thus making me put small bets on other runners who I had initially dismissed as being no value! Not just terrible on my part, but incredibly numb!

The lesson I have learnt from yesterday is, that if your own research is logical and wholesome, do not let your mind be inflicted with ramblings from others. Leave your bets as they stand and cover all possibilities if you readily fancy two or three ahead of the competition.

Classic Saturday - Newmarket Preview & Value Bets

The first Classic of the season is upon us on Saturday afternoon, courtesy of the colts and the 204th running of the 2000 Guineas. This will quickly be followed by the second Classic that immediately follows on Sunday afternoon for the fillies and their version of this elite contest thanks to the 1000 Guineas.

All in all we will be treated to a thrilling 11 races on terrestrial television, over the course of this weekend which is good news for all racing fans. Goodwood plays a supporting roles on Saturday with a couple of Listed treats, but the main focus firmly lies with what is being served up at Newmarket.