Recent form has been good, but overconfidence can be wounding, so we will tread carefully and try not to place our faith in mediocre priced participants and non-value selections.
I think it is most efficient of me to decipher the form behind the big race of the afternoon, which on Day One is the 3.00 Duke Of York Totepool Stakes (Group 2).
Understanding trends can be a useful starting point, but I rarely solely rely on them being fully informative and like to uncover characteristics of previously run races in similar conditions.
Despite the racing post declaring the 6f straight at York to be 'Good' ground on Wednesday, a brief look at the Turftrax website illustrates that 4 1/2 furlongs of the home straight is actually good to soft at 3.45pm on Tuesday afternoon. It is misleading, but no harm done as we have realised this ourselves before the analysis has begun.
The ground may indeed dry up sufficiently enough tomorrow afternoon to be Good by the time of the race, but it would be foolish at this stage, to exclude horses with a preference for cut in the ground.
7 of the last 10 renewals have been run on ground described as Good or Good to Firm. One criteria I have noticed in these circumstances is that horses with a rating of 111+ have proven their class, ignoring the results of 2002 which overall looked a substandard renewal.
In fact, based on the other six renewals 11 out of the 12 top two places went to horses rated 111+ on ground described as Good or faster. This clearly indicates that when speed is of the essence, the classier horses have a healthy advantage.
However, let us compare this very strong trend with the results gleamed from the renewals that were run between 2004 and 2006. These three contests were run on ground described as Good to Soft or Soft. With a total of SIX first two places available during these years, just ONE horse rated 111+ managed to fill them. This obviously highlights the notion that softer ground conditions can be a great leveller and no horse can be excluded from calculations in them!
The summary of this brief research means with ground conditions on Wednesday not yet finalised, any early written preview may prove to be misleading. I cannot predict 18 hours in advance whether the ground will be Good or whether it will remain in it's present state as Good to Soft. In this situation it seems crucial to know, so I will develop my analysis with an open mind and proceed to determine a plausible outcome.
The other consideration for a possible Good to Soft declaration of ground is that in those three years between 2004 and 2006, the winner had run at least two times already that season. This is a probable indication that race fitness holds an advantage when the going is on the slow side.
The field of 14 this year features just five horses rated 111+ and a definite advantage would have to be given to these if conditions did dry out before the race. The five candidates are Hoof It, Libranno, Society Rock, Soul and the supplemented French raider Restiadargent.
If softer ground prevails then our shortlist becomes markedly different with an almost entirely new set of runners qualifying through the research carried out earlier. These being Mayson, Sirius Prospect, Soul and Bannock.
The race appears now to be more confusing than a 1000 piece jigsaw puzzle when these findings are laid out bare on the table infront of us. However the weather for Wednesday at York indicates there to be a plethora of sunshine with temperatures reaching 12c in the afternoon. With the race not due off until 3 O'clock this gives sufficient time, should there be no unanticipated rainfall, for the home straight to dry out and become Good ground.
Given all these considerations and based on value I have no hesitation in claiming Restiadargent (12-1) and Libranno (16-1) as the two to focus on at the prices. Hoof It and Mayson are the two likely favourites, but despite a recent improvement in form I am sceptical of Mayson proving up to this grade at present. Hoof It meanwhile has Ryan Moore in the saddle for the first time and despite winning at this meeting for the last two years, he is fresh and may find the two I have chosen ahead of him, to be fitter individuals at this present moment in time.
Libranno has already had a run this year over a race distance of one mile, in considerably heavy ground that proved much too far on a stiff track like Sandown. He can easily be forgiven that run having showed his best form at 6f and 7f previously. He has a rating of 112 and has two Group 2 successes under his belt and a further two at Group 3 level. Let us not forget to mention that he also placed in last seasons Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 2) at Ascot and was a close 4th in the Darley July Cup (Group 1), both of which came over 6f.
Arguably an even more considered contender will be Restiadargent who has been supplemented by connections for a tilt at this Group 2 prize. He is only a 3yo but showed a considerable turn of foot aged 2 to land two big prizes in his native France at Group 3 and Group 2 level. My only casting doubt can be my dislike for a career best that has been gained in heavy ground, it is never a true reflection of a horses ability and having never tasted a big race success on decent ground, there has to be some minor doubt.
One more contender who does not meet the 111 rating bracket, but who looks capable based on his previous years form is Sirius Prospect. His draw should not inconvenience him as he is a hold up performer and has been unfortunate in his two races so far this season. Much better can be expected and with race fitness assured, he may prove capable now of much better. It is very much noted that his career best effort to date, came over C&D and a repeat of that would have him run very close in this Group 2.
THE BET:
Dutch bets on Libranno (16-1), Restiadargent (12-1) and Sirius Prospect (14-1) equates to a 4-1 chance, and that in this case is my preferred play. The race appears to be too difficult for a less sporadic approach.
BEST OF THE REST:
1.30 - Infinity Tyres Stakes Handicap (Class 2) 1m 2f 88yds
Some big yards contest this useful looking handicap with Luca Cumani, Sir Michael Stoute, Saeed Bin Suroor and John Gosden all represented amongst the 14 runner field. The topweight is Kirthill ridden by Kieran Fallon, but I am not fully certain he will be able to concede weight so some of these anticipated improvers.
Labarinto did not show enough on his seasonal debut to warrant major interest in this, but it is noted that his stable is now in better form and these conditions will suit him far better than last time. Meanwhile Flag Officer has a 340 day absence to overcome and will need to continue his progression to score and this is by no means guaranteed.
The John Gosden trained Gatewood looks like an unknown quantity and is seemingly well bred (Dam a G3 winner over 1m2f and Sire being the notorious Galileo). While he may look like a handicap snip and unexposed there is no guarantee that he may run a career best first time out, and that is what will be required to win.
My idea of the potential winner is last years runner up RIGHT STEP who may have improved enough to defy his latest mark of 97. A winner last time out in heavy ground at Epsom showed him in good light and his confidence should be high after that result with conditions likely to be in his favour once more in this event.
A strong pace is very likely with several featured who like to race from the front lined up. This hold up performer may be able to use the slightly worse ground in the home straight to his advantage with a late run past possible tiring rivals who are entered here for their debut run. However due to a very poor winning strike rate, I can advise no better than an each way stake.
THE BET: RIGHT STEP @ 9-1 (Paddypower) "EW"
2.00 - William Birch & Sons Construction Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2)
Arriving at this contest with a similar profile to last seasons winner Hoof It, is the very capable YORK GLORY, who looks certain to develop into a pattern class performer this season, all being well. No doubt this runner will get backed in the ring due to his name and therefore it is advised to get on early!
His hold up performances require astute timing and his trainer has remarked previously that he finds the pace of a race too slow over 6f. However with Dickie's Lad in opposition he can set useful fractions for the selection to get up and score, given a clear run.
THE BET: YORK GLORY @ 7-1 ( Bet365) "EW"
Arriving at this contest with a similar profile to last seasons winner Hoof It, is the very capable YORK GLORY, who looks certain to develop into a pattern class performer this season, all being well. No doubt this runner will get backed in the ring due to his name and therefore it is advised to get on early!
His hold up performances require astute timing and his trainer has remarked previously that he finds the pace of a race too slow over 6f. However with Dickie's Lad in opposition he can set useful fractions for the selection to get up and score, given a clear run.
THE BET: YORK GLORY @ 7-1 ( Bet365) "EW"
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