All in all we will be treated to a thrilling 11 races on terrestrial television, over the course of this weekend which is good news for all racing fans. Goodwood plays a supporting roles on Saturday with a couple of Listed treats, but the main focus firmly lies with what is being served up at Newmarket.
A reminder to everyone that I wrote up my initial thoughts for the 2000 Guineas earlier this week with a supposedly eccentric first choice proving to be Hermival. On Sunday night he was trading at over 40-1 on Betfair and thus had to be my main play at generous odds. Only twice raced you can read what I thought on him and several of the other contenders by clicking HERE.
Since that preview was written one of my predicted first four finishers has been withdrawn. If I had to make a replacement selection to finish amongst the front four it would be a close call between Fencing, Power and the French raider Abtaal. Everywhere I look, the latter named horse has become the choice of every man and his dog, so in theory he should be my choice. However, I simply love to be different and if choosing an alternative I would be inclined to believe Fencing has a fair chance of scoring, for each way backers, at very decent odds.
Power also ticks many trends boxes and is an ultra consistent horse expected to improve over this trip. His best performances last season came when there was cut in the ground and with Ryan Moore in the saddle he surely should figure at the business end of the race. This one time 2000 Guineas favourite should not be far away, and if the trip proves too short for his stablemate, Hermival and himself may be the ones who are best able to take advantage.
Meanwhile my instincts in favouring French Fifteen for a positive result, since the start of the week, have dwindled. With 8 runs to his name already I have a gut feeling that more than one rival may improve past him now he is a 3yo, once again tackling a mile. Abtaal and himself may be fighting it out for minor honours ultimately and I am almost certain that with a good ride, Hermival will improve past both of them, on just his third start.
Therefore my NEW First Four prediction looks like this:
1. Hermival
2. Power
3. Fencing
4. Camelot
My reason for demoting Camelot to fourth, from an initial second place, is courtesy of the damning trend that was highlighted by Kevin Blake of the www.theirishfield.ie. He vividly points out in his recent article about Camelot that:
"Montjeu has sired over 150 horses that have been officially rated 100 or higher. Yet, of all those talented horses, not a single one of them has won a Group race at a mile or shorter as a three-year-old or older in Europe."
Whatever happens in this Classic, I hope it is a fair race and that the ground conditions do not pour scorn on what looks to be a quite fascinating race on paper.
Other interests on Saturday are also quite healthy with some very nice high class action at both Newmarket and Goodwood. The best of these appear below:
NEWMARKET
2.00PM - Makfi Suffolk Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) 1m 1f.
This race was installed on the card in 2005 and in seven previous renewals only one horse carrying above 9st have tasted victory. That sole victory came via the Sir Michael Stoute trained Confront who carried 9st 10lb past the winning post in 2009. He ultimately became a horse just shy of top class having ran well in Group 2 company and winning once against Group 3 opposition.
Fury is this seasons topweight and has looked good on his two starts so far this season. He looks a potential player but his odds are restrictive and having failed to win handicaps this season off marks of 98 and 99, I would not be willing to chant that he is value now that he is rated 104.
Proponent now aged 8 is on a career high mark and can easily be overlooked, whilst Spanish Duke has been out of sorts for quite some time and only ever shows his best form for jockey Eddie Ahern, who is not aboard this afternoon. Danadana would have appealed more had Kieran Fallon remained in the saddle and looks a more long term prospect this season. Meanwhile the same can be said of Memory Cloth who has Barry McHugh in the saddle having already been raised 8lb for his most recent win just 10 days ago.
Two with possibilities include Circumvent and Dick Doughtwylie with preference possibly for the latter on account of his unexposed look. The former is proven on soft going having won a Group 3 in France on very soft ground in his younger days. His overall profile suggests though, that off a mark of 100 he has potential having peaked at a career high of 108 two years ago. The negatives are perhaps a weight of 9st 6lb and conceding weight to some potentially well weighted types including the selection DICK DOUGHTYWYLIE.
This inexperienced 4yo has only raced on four occasions and did not win a maiden until on his third attempt last season. He reappeared at Epsom with his connections hoping he would take after his half sister Gertrude Bell who performs well on sharp downhill tracks. He has already won at Chester, but the heavy ground was reportedly the reason why he failed to show any kind of form when he was tested at Epsom.
On account of that poor run he has strangely been relegated in the handicap by a 1lb to a mark of 89 which is surely too low for a potential improver. Pleasant Day is perhaps best of the rest on account of him being 1lb lower than his previous highest handicap winning mark. He was a Group level performer in his younger days and whilst not of that standard any more, he can at least score in handicap company later in the year.
THE BET: DICK DOUGHTYWYLIE @ 15-1 (Betfair)
2.30PM - Qatar Bloodstock Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2) 1m 4f.
This race is filled with a fair bit of class and gives off vibes that make it appear a Group 1 contest on paper. Quite often there can be a disappointing turnout and the race normally tends to attract a competitive high quality field, but this years renewal seems to have attracted some of the best, including Group 1 winners Dunaden, Meandre and Masked Marvel.
This race has also cemented itself as a race for the punters, or more so favourite backers in recent years, with the favourite winning 6 of the last 8 renewals. There is reason to believe this season may prove different as many of those 8 renewals have attracted one high class Group 1 or Group 2 performer and then a mixed bunch to make up the numbers. This year that is not the case, and as a result of this, the 2-1 favourite Meandre is very little value.
There is no doubting that he is the most likely winner having failed to meet the conditions for a penalty despite being a previous Group 1 winner last season. His trainer Andre Fabre has won this race twice in the past decade, but both were with 5yo's who had proven themselves to be of the highest calibre. Meandre may have a Group 1 to his name, but the Seville finished 2nd and that suggests to me, despite Reliable Man finishing 3rd, that it was not a vintage renewal of Group 1 in which he was successful in at Longchamp.
Pace may be an issue in a race where there is no designated front runner and with ground causing some grievance with trainer John Gosden and the distance being on the sharp side already it could pay to side with the Godolphin runner SADEEK'S SONG.
On official ratings the selection has no hope but a victory on just his fourth career start last season over a credible Group 2 level runner Colombian illustrated his potential for this season. On the basis of that victory, with a form line taken at face value, he is only a small gap between Meandre and himself and he is the more likely horse to progress at much bigger odds.
THE BET: SADEEK'S SONG @ 14-1 (William Hill)
If 8 runners remain, an each way bet is a viable alternative.
3.45PM - Pearl Bloodstock Palace House Stakes (Group 3) 5f.
I love sprints. My results over the last two seasons justify my reason for appreciating them, but they can be so awkward to study and a fair amount of good fortune can be involved too. When I began to research this race on Friday afternoon I felt the market was misplaced in it's judgement of the 3yo contenders that are scheduled to run.
The two are Stepper's Point and CALEDONIA LADY with special consideration and interest in the latter for this contest as she has proven her wellbeing with a taking effort at Bath most recently. During her early career she was able to mix it with some of the elite in her age group and was sent off joint favourite to win the Cornwallis Stakes at Ascot at the end of last season.
Recent 3yo winners of this race Captain Gerrard and Amour Propre won that race before confirming their form with victory in this contest. Whilst the selection failed to win her final 2yo start, she had excuses with a very slow start and ran without any cover for much of the race.
In a Listed event at Bath most recently her chance of victory was negated by the outside stall which determined that she would be held up behind runners for a late charge. This can prove difficult at that venue and she came out of the race in my view as the moral winner having just failed to close down on the winner Beyond Desire who is a useful Group 3 performer herself.
With the booking of Joe Fanning in the saddle giving reason to expect a better showing I believe that her speed will come into play and she can use her flyweight age and sex allowance to her advantage at the death. I will go as far as suggesting that she is priced wrongly in a competitive race. Her only issue can be at the start but if she can at least break on equal terms this time around she has huge claims of success.
THE BET: CALEDONIA LADY @ 19-1 (Betfair)
With 16 runners likely to come down further there is a good chance this selection may prove a fair investment on the place market to finish amongst the first 4. Also consider the fact with her slow starts that she may prove to be a wiser inrunnig investment as she could reach double her odds in-play.
With my funds tied up at Newmarket I will not be previewing the racing at Goodwood. Hopefully one of these huge priced bets lands later today!
NEWMARKET
2.00PM - Makfi Suffolk Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) 1m 1f.
This race was installed on the card in 2005 and in seven previous renewals only one horse carrying above 9st have tasted victory. That sole victory came via the Sir Michael Stoute trained Confront who carried 9st 10lb past the winning post in 2009. He ultimately became a horse just shy of top class having ran well in Group 2 company and winning once against Group 3 opposition.
Fury is this seasons topweight and has looked good on his two starts so far this season. He looks a potential player but his odds are restrictive and having failed to win handicaps this season off marks of 98 and 99, I would not be willing to chant that he is value now that he is rated 104.
Proponent now aged 8 is on a career high mark and can easily be overlooked, whilst Spanish Duke has been out of sorts for quite some time and only ever shows his best form for jockey Eddie Ahern, who is not aboard this afternoon. Danadana would have appealed more had Kieran Fallon remained in the saddle and looks a more long term prospect this season. Meanwhile the same can be said of Memory Cloth who has Barry McHugh in the saddle having already been raised 8lb for his most recent win just 10 days ago.
Two with possibilities include Circumvent and Dick Doughtwylie with preference possibly for the latter on account of his unexposed look. The former is proven on soft going having won a Group 3 in France on very soft ground in his younger days. His overall profile suggests though, that off a mark of 100 he has potential having peaked at a career high of 108 two years ago. The negatives are perhaps a weight of 9st 6lb and conceding weight to some potentially well weighted types including the selection DICK DOUGHTYWYLIE.
This inexperienced 4yo has only raced on four occasions and did not win a maiden until on his third attempt last season. He reappeared at Epsom with his connections hoping he would take after his half sister Gertrude Bell who performs well on sharp downhill tracks. He has already won at Chester, but the heavy ground was reportedly the reason why he failed to show any kind of form when he was tested at Epsom.
On account of that poor run he has strangely been relegated in the handicap by a 1lb to a mark of 89 which is surely too low for a potential improver. Pleasant Day is perhaps best of the rest on account of him being 1lb lower than his previous highest handicap winning mark. He was a Group level performer in his younger days and whilst not of that standard any more, he can at least score in handicap company later in the year.
THE BET: DICK DOUGHTYWYLIE @ 15-1 (Betfair)
2.30PM - Qatar Bloodstock Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2) 1m 4f.
This race is filled with a fair bit of class and gives off vibes that make it appear a Group 1 contest on paper. Quite often there can be a disappointing turnout and the race normally tends to attract a competitive high quality field, but this years renewal seems to have attracted some of the best, including Group 1 winners Dunaden, Meandre and Masked Marvel.
This race has also cemented itself as a race for the punters, or more so favourite backers in recent years, with the favourite winning 6 of the last 8 renewals. There is reason to believe this season may prove different as many of those 8 renewals have attracted one high class Group 1 or Group 2 performer and then a mixed bunch to make up the numbers. This year that is not the case, and as a result of this, the 2-1 favourite Meandre is very little value.
There is no doubting that he is the most likely winner having failed to meet the conditions for a penalty despite being a previous Group 1 winner last season. His trainer Andre Fabre has won this race twice in the past decade, but both were with 5yo's who had proven themselves to be of the highest calibre. Meandre may have a Group 1 to his name, but the Seville finished 2nd and that suggests to me, despite Reliable Man finishing 3rd, that it was not a vintage renewal of Group 1 in which he was successful in at Longchamp.
Pace may be an issue in a race where there is no designated front runner and with ground causing some grievance with trainer John Gosden and the distance being on the sharp side already it could pay to side with the Godolphin runner SADEEK'S SONG.
On official ratings the selection has no hope but a victory on just his fourth career start last season over a credible Group 2 level runner Colombian illustrated his potential for this season. On the basis of that victory, with a form line taken at face value, he is only a small gap between Meandre and himself and he is the more likely horse to progress at much bigger odds.
THE BET: SADEEK'S SONG @ 14-1 (William Hill)
If 8 runners remain, an each way bet is a viable alternative.
3.45PM - Pearl Bloodstock Palace House Stakes (Group 3) 5f.
I love sprints. My results over the last two seasons justify my reason for appreciating them, but they can be so awkward to study and a fair amount of good fortune can be involved too. When I began to research this race on Friday afternoon I felt the market was misplaced in it's judgement of the 3yo contenders that are scheduled to run.
The two are Stepper's Point and CALEDONIA LADY with special consideration and interest in the latter for this contest as she has proven her wellbeing with a taking effort at Bath most recently. During her early career she was able to mix it with some of the elite in her age group and was sent off joint favourite to win the Cornwallis Stakes at Ascot at the end of last season.
Recent 3yo winners of this race Captain Gerrard and Amour Propre won that race before confirming their form with victory in this contest. Whilst the selection failed to win her final 2yo start, she had excuses with a very slow start and ran without any cover for much of the race.
In a Listed event at Bath most recently her chance of victory was negated by the outside stall which determined that she would be held up behind runners for a late charge. This can prove difficult at that venue and she came out of the race in my view as the moral winner having just failed to close down on the winner Beyond Desire who is a useful Group 3 performer herself.
With the booking of Joe Fanning in the saddle giving reason to expect a better showing I believe that her speed will come into play and she can use her flyweight age and sex allowance to her advantage at the death. I will go as far as suggesting that she is priced wrongly in a competitive race. Her only issue can be at the start but if she can at least break on equal terms this time around she has huge claims of success.
THE BET: CALEDONIA LADY @ 19-1 (Betfair)
With 16 runners likely to come down further there is a good chance this selection may prove a fair investment on the place market to finish amongst the first 4. Also consider the fact with her slow starts that she may prove to be a wiser inrunnig investment as she could reach double her odds in-play.
With my funds tied up at Newmarket I will not be previewing the racing at Goodwood. Hopefully one of these huge priced bets lands later today!
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