For the rest of this week I will be solely devoting my horse race analysing sessions to Aintree and focusing on the Grand National which is scheduled for Saturday on ground that is as yet, quite unknown. All my minor flirtations with the Antepost market for the big race itself seem ill advised on softer ground and I am likely to draw a line through some of these bets and try to claim my stakes back on the exchanges.
As for today the one bet comes from Fairyhouse in the 5.30 Dan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase (Grade A). Several of the field come into this race highly regarded and a few with something to prove, with my form at present not to my liking I envisage another discomforting experience later this afternoon.
This race could perhaps be ground dependant as more rain is scheduled to hit the Fairyhouse track throughout the afternoon. If the rain becomes a serious issue then Nearest The Pin is one horse more certainly who will find things difficult, as he is far more assured with decent underfoot conditions in tow.
Bellvano is top weight and runs here on the back of a quite superb win in the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual at Cheltenham. That day the ride he was given brought about huge acclaim and a 10lb rise in the weights courtesy of that flyweight victory has to be of serious concern at a shorter price.
Foildubh is quite possibly rated accordingly and this is perhaps as good as he is, whilst The Sneezer who has already had 17 chase outings, is running off a career high mark courtesy of a win last time out at Gowran Park. That day under an ultra lightweight he was able to sprint away from the front and the likelihood is that he will not be able to muster a similar effort this afternoon, with conditions unlikely to be testing enough.
There has to be a doubt as to whether the trip will do Bob Lingo any favours and this 10yo is dismissed on account that he has nothing in hand of the handicapper and is looking exposed. Meanwhile Uncle Tom Cobley has a fair strike rate for placing but has only recorded one victory to date from 16 chase outings and is ignored.
Jigalo needs little introduction as he appears to be contesting a race that is possibly beyond him. His overall profile is again one of those that often fail to deliver at the business end of their races.
By a thorough process of elimination and evaluation of the present betting odds it leaves me with a race selection of PEAK RAIDER who runs in this race from 1lb out of the handicap proper. His claiming jockey Peter Carberry takes off 5lb however giving the runner a tantalising race weight of just 9st 12lb.
The selection loves this venue and has produced some of his best form at the track so far when conditions have not been too testing. The 14-1 odds on Betfair about his chance look too big to ignore and I have acted accordingly knowing that conditions this afternoon are likely to worsen to a level he will be best equipped to deal with. Any substantial rainfall and 'heavy' description in the ground though will be a negative so a chance is taken on the weather not having a colossal impact pre race.
Finally I hope to be on an outsider that will at least run close! However, I have a suspicion he could pull off a minor shock win.
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