Sunday Bets - Plus Reflections On Goodwood

Sunday embroils myself in one or two races of interest too soon after the appalling pain self inflicted by ill judgement, niave selections and some outright bad luck. My usual policy would be to have a full week off from any form research or betting and keep a fresh head for the following weekend. However with one or two nice races at Chester, Newbury and in Ireland I still feel obliged to keep my head in the formbook but ascertain that I WILL not be chasing my losses now Goodwood is over.

Goodwood Finale Added Bets

Please read on for my additional selections for Goodwood Day Five. WILL my luck change?

Goodwood Day Five - Laugh Or Cry?

Goodwood Day FIVE has arrived and 'unfortunately' the blog has found NO WINNERS over the five days. The best performance of the meeting has been Day Two and that is only due to choosing not to bet. We've had multiple SECOND places with some relatively decent prices and then yesterday arguably the biggest hard luck story of the whole meeting arrived to coincide with some poor sportsmanship which went unnoticed by many as the horses passed the line.

Oak Tree Stakes - Perfect Tribute

What a difference half an hour makes. I literally sat down and analysed the form for this race just prior to midday before I spent several minutes messing around trying to update my card details to get the 18-1 available on Perfect Tribute in the 4.50 Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3). A rather large 2pt bet placed and I leave my PC to attend to my Jacket Potato and Southern Fried Chicken (healthy eating is not on my agenda). Half an hour later I have returned and Coral have decapitated their 18-1 offer and have slashed the Clive Cox trained runner to a miserly 11-1. 14-1 however is still available with Bluesquare and that I believe is still a decent price about a filly on an explicit upward curve. The fast pace, trip and starting gate are all in her favour and it must be acknowledged that if she had been trained by either a Cecil or a Stoute then her odds would be surely single figures.

Clive Cox is no mug and he had the fast finishing Beacon Lodge flash home in a Group race earlier this week. He also trains Poet who is adept to Group racing and Polly's Mark to name but two others. I feel Perfect Tribute can surpass these colleagues adjudged by the form she has shown so far in her career and should she be able to chase the strong pace then it will take a very solid Group 2 or above prospect to beat her.

These are the basic reasons why I am interested in her chance at these larger than expected odds. Some of my favourite fillies line up here including Law Of The Range and Rhythm Of Light so as can be expected it took a fair amount of convincing to have me avoid them both on this occasion in preference of the race selection Perfect Tribute.

Pundit Pointer:

4.50 - Perfect Tribute (2pts @ 14-1 Bluesquare)
Arguably I only bet 2pts because I was getting 18-1 with Coral so it may be worth downsizing the bet slightly at these lesser odds if you prefer. Remember, it is all about value!

Goodwood Day Four - No Pain No Gain!

Glorious Goodwood Day Four has arrived with some pleasant offerings scheduled for this afternoon. Pleasant however only if my selections do well! The Totesport Mile handicap is often a thrilling event subjected to a terrible draw bias that in general has instantly discounted many classy runners over the years as they can only run on late. Added to the mix are a couple of Group 3 events and a high quality 3yo only Listed race. I am very keen to let my research do the talking and get back on track so fingers crossed that today will be a little more lucky than previously this week.

Below Par But Not Far Off

Disappointed with the results on Thursday having backed two flops, two second places and one unlucky runner. Like I always say, it only takes one winner to turn it all around when betting my way. Glorious Goodwood is genuinely a meeting for well backed horses and Thursday proved no different with FIVE of the seven winners on the card running with an SP of 9-2 or shorter! That may be great news for an average joe but I need the more pleasantly priced runners to come to the fore if I am to have a successful meeting.

Having only bet on two of the three days so far and achieved healthy second places on three occasions I am still confident going into Day 4 that I can turn things around and plan ahead for a profitable meeting. The key to overcoming bad luck is to not try and be any different and keep the same attitude and methods before making any further selections. I just need to make sure that I avoid the bad value bets such as Delegator on Wednesday and Manighar today.

Having been slightly unlucky so far overall (come on, three seconds suggests some bad luck is involved) I perhaps will go back to being disciplined for Friday and only backing the horses I believe are generously priced with bags of potential to succeed in the races they are involved in.

Let us hope that tomorrow brings about a change in fortune and that none of you have deserted me yet!

Goodwood - Additional Bet

Having already gathered my betting verdicts for the televised races this afternoon in my earlier post (READ HERE) I am now adding one final bet to conclude proceedings on Day Three of Glorious Goodwood.

In the 4.55 Tatler Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) the selection is Bridgefield for this open looking 7f handicap. He looks to be handicapped accordingly but a recent win showed him in good light and an entry in the ultra competitive Totesport Mile handicap has been sidestepped in favour of this more realistic and simpler challenge. I believe from a decent starting position he could well prove best and show his possible Group race potential. Only a small bet but lets hope by this point we already have a winner under our belts!

Barry Hills meanwhile reports Shropshire to have ran well in a recent gallop after flopping on his latest start. He could be one to run well at a big price and should he perform here with some potential he may well be up to winning next time out. Hopefully he will not win on this occasion as my money is all tied up on the rest of today's selections!

Pundit Pointer:

4.55 - Bridgefield (1pt @ 8-1 Bet365)

Goodwood Day Three - Back In Business

Hand on heart I can joyously declare I would most likely not have won a single bet had I chosen to take part in yesterdays Glorious Goodwood action. Today I feel more refreshed and there are races being run that will suit my methods so I have to consider myself at least hopeful of breaking my Goodwood duck this afternoon. Goodwood is certainly not my favourite track as I prefer more conventional layouts where a galloping horse has an advantage but I make not excuses ahead of what I hope will be a more than adequate and profitable afternoon.

Glorious Goodwood Day Two - No Bets

This is just a note so that no one gives themselves a dislocated finger Wednesday morning by frantically clicking their mouse to refresh this betting blog.

There simply is nothing at all worthy of an interest from my own personal viewpoint with even the showpiece Sussex Stakes (Group 1) more of a tragic "what could have been" rather than a "can't wait for this" kind of race.

Supporting races fair little better on Day Two and whilst I had a vague interest in studying one of the handicaps I feel there is far too much guesswork involved to be optimistically confident about anything that I may ultimately pick.

I am off work for the remaining three days of the meeting starting Thursday so hopefully we can make amends for what turned out to be an unfortunate and disappointing Day One. Burwaaz nearly came good in the Molecombe Stakes (Group 3) at early 12-1 odds, but was denied in a tough race finishing a respectable second place.

As many of you know - sprints seems to be where I come good at the minute and there are a few on the horizon over the coming days so please make sure you do not waste your money on Wednesday and are still alive and ready to bet come Thursday afternoon!

Goodwood Day One - Finding Value Or Favourites?

Historically betting on short priced selections during Glorious Goodwood has proven to be acceptable and has gleaned addicted punters a fair return on their stake. However with you all knowing my style and the fact that losing does not bother me in the slightest I am keen to stick with the methods that have helped yield several attractively priced winners throughout the year. Goodwood is quite noticeably a specialist track and the very formidable "horses for courses" rule applies more at this venue than anywhere else in the UK. Winning form previously found here counts far more than relatively similar form located elsewhere, so take heed and get ready for those best value bets from Day One.

A Sad Day For Racing

Pure bad luck locked itself into the sport of kings this afternoon with the untimely demise of dual Group 1 winner Rewilding as he sadly suffered an ill fated broken leg during todays showpiece King George (Group 1) event. Once again when viewing figures for the sport were at their peak distressing scenes were sent out into the public domain to quash any small chance that the sport can impose itself on mainstream public viewing.

It hardly mattered to me what had gone on before in the afternoon after witnessing this tragic event unfold in what was a messy race at best. Nathaniel won well but Workforce confirmed himself as anything but straightforward on the Ascot track as he once again ran questionably at the venue.

I will hopefully be back to my positive self on Tuesday for the first day of the Glorious Goodwood meeting. However my own betting activities will be quiet until I am off work from Thursday onwards. I just hope that todays scenes are not repeated any time soon and that not too many are put off from watching horse racing again in the future.

These things sadly just happen from time to time.

Saturday Racing Preview - Ascot, Newmarket & York

An enthralling spectacle awaits us with the King George (Group 1) scheduled to take place featuring a pacemaker and four very talented future stallion greats. Deciphering the form lines for not just this race but several of the supporting races featured on both the BBC and Channel 4 this afternoon promises to be tough. Do I expect winners? No, but as ever I am as hopeful as I can be that at least one horse I pick will come good later today.

Time To Study

Having had a glorious ELEVEN HOUR sleep on Friday (I so needed it) I feel in fine fettle ahead of continuing my research for Saturday's big races. This is possibly the most significant racing day of the season so far and finding just one nicely priced winner should prove quite a tough challenge.

I have roughly three hours to sort myself out and prepare my notes so please do check back and see if we can recapture last weekends form and find one or two impressive results.

Update will be online before 12.30pm which will give you almost two full hours to place your bets ahead of the races I am planning for this afternoon.

A Surfeit Of Horse Racing Is Imminent & A Birthday!

Last weekend was a welcome winning one ahead of some fascinating and awe inspiring rivalries that will be paired up both this weekend at Ascot and during next week at Glorious Goodwood. Some of the greatest horses in Europe will be on display over the remaining days in July with the superstar quartet of Workforce, St Nicholas Abbey, Rewilding and Nathaniel set to oppose in the King George this weekend. This is only a week before Canford Cliffs tries to lower the colours of the progressive Frankel in the Sussex Stakes. Inbetween we have a plethora of Group race action at Glorious Goodwood to contend with as well as some intriguing handicaps spread across the cards.

With my Birthday on the horizon this Thursday there is no better way to celebrate it this weekend than to watch and win on my favourite sport! Most of all though I am just relieved to still be in a position to enjoy it and place my bets after some wayward moments in my earlier days that nearly prevented me from still spending time researching the sport I love most.

Frankie Delightful

"What if?" was the start of the question I could be found asking myself on Sunday evening. "What if Frankie Dettori had not messed up at Epsom, would he have ridden Blue Bunting to win at the Curragh?"

Sunday Selections - Irish Oaks Day

A very intriguing day of racing lies ahead of us with the Irish Oaks (Group 1) the showpiece event at the Curragh. The weather is gloomy and the ground is softening but I still feel happy enough with conditions to proceed and place my bets.

Compos Mentis - It's a Start!

I have awoken feeling quite well within myself with no ill effects from the evening before. Luckily I knew my limits and that I had a very interesting Sunday ahead of me which I would have been ill advised to miss out on due to excessive alcohol intake the previous evening.

However I am running behind schedule and am just finalising my selection in one final race before I make my views on the day clear. There are some interesting runners today at bigger prices but I am not sure if they are more than place chances in all truth so do not expect much magic today!

The Sunday Selections will be online shortly.

Another Day Another Dollar

I chose to go out this evening in celebration of my personal triumph in the 2yo division. As I claimed this morning - I simply do not touch the juveniles! I just don't like them and rarely see anything at a price with form in the book land a race. Saturday however broke that mould and strangely despite it being the month of July I chose to make my probable only bet this season on a youngster. Might as well end on a high after all?

Charles The Great Scores For Oddspundit!

The Weatherby's Super Sprint this afternoon at Newbury was won in quite taking fashion by the Oddspundit BET OF THE DAY Charles The Great. As I indicated just prior to lunchtime on Saturday if I had not found this runner lurking quite hidden on the racecard I would have had the day off from betting as there was nothing else running that I could see winning at a silly price.

There was enough confidence (or should that read madness?) in my analysis of the form that I did not bother to bet on more than one runner and cover my selection. When there is value to be had I always aim to be there and this proved a delightful bet at odds of 40-1+ on Betfair.

Charles The Great becomes the THIRD biggest priced winner for the blog in little over a year. This legendary performance comes hot on the heels of Burning Thread who won at odds of over 75-1 on Betfair last month when winning the Scottish Sprint Cup at Musselburgh. In 2010 on the very same racing weekend Bertoliver scored in blistering fashion for blog readers in the Epsom Dash at odds in excess of 50-1 on the exchanges that day.

It should be noted that perhaps in future when I am raving about massively priced individuals to just go gung-ho and back them! For sure I rarely tip horses above 25-1 yet seemingly each time I do - THEY WIN!

Racing Preview - Saturday at Newbury and Newmarket

Having woken up contemplating a day off from the exertions of form reading and likely disappointments I was considering having the day off but having dragged myself infront of the PC early this morning I must admit I am very taken by one individual and think that a couple more have chances across the cards this afternoon. Lets get started!

Reliable Man - Grand Prix de Paris

This is an ultra quick note on the showpiece Group 1 event this evening at 6.50 Longchamp. Reliable Man takes on six rivals including the Irish Derby winner Treasure Beach as he bids to enhance his already high class reputation. With the ground unsure to suit Treasure Beach fully and Seville appearing to have his limitations it could be worth siding with the probable favourite on this occasion.

Bubble Chic has an extraordinary run of 2nd place finishes stretching now to the last six outings and that generally will appeal to most as a possible 2nd selection for a forecast bet. However Andre Fabre is a trainer not to be discounted for this event having won it on numerous occasions and most recently in 2009. He has supplemented Meandre for the event this year and whilst that one looks on paper to have too much to do it is notable that he has a C&D win to his name albeit in Listed company and he may well improve enough on that to run Reliable Man quite close.

I have had a 1pt single win bet on Reliable Man (5-2) and a 1pt S/Forecast bet on both the selection and Meandre in the hope of hitting the jackpot. The early Bet365 odds about the forecast result in a 23-1 priced bet, which was too tempting. Now I just need the Irish Derby contingent to not be at their best having ran a tough race only 18 days ago and we may just have a winning result!

140th Open Champion Preview - My Golf Bets

The Open Golf Championship begins Thursday morning at 6.30am where Jerry Kelly will be the first player scheduled to strike off on the opening tee. Never has a Major been so wide open and with that in mind it is once more worthwhile to go for the win with some value bets.

Saturday Selections - Newmarket, York and Chester

A mountain of top class action takes place across the country today with top handicaps and Group racing on show throughout the afternoon. The main action comes from Newmarket and York but Ascot also hosts a high class Group 2 with my own other action coming from Chester for their big Listed race late on. No time to dwell so lets get straight to it and declare my interests.

Rise and Shine

So far so good this week. On Thursday the only bet of the day was the scintillating Crystal Capella who performed even beyond my wildest expectations to win her Group 2 by an impressive EIGHT lengths. This coming despite her being a "confident" selection ahead of the race. Yesterday I contemplated trying a similar tactic and going for the single bet but the only horse I felt would "probably" win yesterday was the French raider Sahpresa in the Falmouth Stakes (Group 1). Her early price of 3-1 was highly tempting as a recommendation to back big but even despite these quite favourable odds I just had a discomfort over placing my faith in monetary terms. As a result I left well alone for Day Two and thanks to Timepiece that ultimately proved to be the correct decision.

This means for today I feel in the right frame of mind to approach my races with an unnerving confidence where no runner will be discounted purely on trends or price. Hopefully this will result in some good winners for the big races this afternoon or at the very least, some good performances!

Time to get studying!

Update in full should be online before 1PM. Check back sooner if you can.

Crystal Capella Can Land Big Prize

Just a brief update for the blog this afternoon with one bet only planned for Day One of Newmarket's July Meeting. The highlight of the card is the feature race Princess of Wales´s sportingbet.com Stakes (Group 2) at 3.00. This is open for horses aged 3+ and run over a distance of 1m 4f. My only play in the race is to back the mare Crystal Capella who is very much likely to progress on the back of her recent outing at Haydock against Listed opposition. She carried a penalty burden that day which was always likely to hinder her ability to win and having not looked likely to feature over a furlong out she was quite visibly left to come home in her own time and wait for another day.

Today I feel that day has come. I have noted negatives about much of the opposition and none of them look unbeatable given the conditions at Newmarket this afternoon. It is clear Crystal Capella is suited by the course given that many of her greatest career performances have come at this venue. Her trainer Sir Michael Stoute seems to steadily be improving his form in recent days and she gets the confident vote as a result.

Pundit Pointer:

3.00 - Crystal Capella (4pt WIN @ 5-1 Sportingbet / Victor Chandler)

Dear oh Dear

Just noticed the most stupid error to date that I have ever written on these pages. In the first race just finished at 2.00 Sandown I claimed my selection to be Prohibit. Obviously anyone reading with any sense will have been thinking I had been sniffing glue as Prohibit had never even been declared for the event. Some will have realised that I did infact mean Triple Aspect by what I had written but it was still a very strange mistake to make. I am not quite sure how I got them both mixed up as the names are not even closely matched. Nevertheless the horse did not win but my second choice Night Carnation whom I did not back flew home. Typical! Still plenty more racing left on the day and there may be a blog update at 3pm if earlier races go in my favour as I have a small interest at Haydock late on in the afternoon that I discovered a short time ago.

Saturday Racing Selections

Having already had a nightmare this week with the withdrawal of my only major interest this weekend I am already facing a deficit despite not having seen a horse run. Today my plan is to keep it simple and with the better weather that we are experiencing now everything should fit into place. Obviously it is unlikely that it will be that easy but I do have a fair number of mild interests at Haydock and Sandown so I am hopeful that I can regain those losses from the Antepost bet placed on Myplacelater early this week.