The newly named totesport.com Grand National Trial Handicap (Grade 3) run over a stamina sapping distance of 3m 4f 110yds is all set to go on Saturday February 19th with a large array of interesting applicants ready to take the prize.
Monday, 31 January 2011
Sunday, 30 January 2011
Carefully Trying To Recouperate
Woke up this morning, wait start again. Went to bed this morning before I awoke this afternoon still blurry eyed with the toxins still streaming through my bloodstream. You know you are going to wake up in a mess when the final destination on your binge drinking tour around the city is called The Death Institute.
Saturday, 29 January 2011
Cheltenham Selections For Saturday
Cheltenham survived a second inspection at 10.45am to give racing enthusiasts some much needed quality action after Doncaster failed to beat the freezing temperatures earlier this morning. After initial disappointment I recalled that my antepost bet Dance Island, who became a non runner on Thursday, would indeed now be refunded. Result! So already in profit on the day without any racing taking place. Let's hope though that Cheltenham can provide us with a spectacle and that my selections today give us a winning chance.
Hopeful Of A Good Weekend
Racing will hopefully take place at both Cheltenham and Doncaster on Saturday after both courses called for an early morning precautionary inspection. I can honestly say I have no horse name fixed in my mind for selection later today but I will not be repeating the mistake I made last week and backing at shortish odds just because I cannot see a likely alternative at bigger prices.
(Though I should have seen a likely alternative as on the Thursday I had been emailed the name of Tatenen from reader Reg who felt at 33-1 odds he was overpriced. Gutting for me that it then went and won, but extremely well done! Great pick.)
(Though I should have seen a likely alternative as on the Thursday I had been emailed the name of Tatenen from reader Reg who felt at 33-1 odds he was overpriced. Gutting for me that it then went and won, but extremely well done! Great pick.)
Friday, 28 January 2011
Thyestes Handicap Chase - Stewarts House Looks Ready
The Thyestes Handicap Chase may finally just get the go-ahead at the third time of asking if the Gowran Park track can survive a 7.30am inspection later this morning. If the news is positive and the race goes ahead then it could be time to attack with our selection.
Thursday, 27 January 2011
Clutter Be Gone!
To all readers:
I think its about time I tidied this blog up. I have found myself that Oddspundit is far from mobile user friendly and on slow connection speeds can take a little time to load so to help I am making a few immediate changes to help with speed and other issues that have disappointed me to date.
I think its about time I tidied this blog up. I have found myself that Oddspundit is far from mobile user friendly and on slow connection speeds can take a little time to load so to help I am making a few immediate changes to help with speed and other issues that have disappointed me to date.
Antepost Mess But A Win For Sure At Meydan
The disappointment of knowing my early antepost tip for the Sky Bet Chase on Saturday was declared a non runner was soon forgotton this evening as Win For Sure fired to glory in the Xpress Trophy handicap at Meydan. I was only able to watch the feat on a television fifteen years old which meant his sweeping last to first run in the home straight out wide did not even get onto my screen until the latter stages due to a void of widescreen capability.
Meydan - 6.25 Xpress Trophy
Win For Sure runs in the finale this evening at Meydan over 8f and appears to be relatively good value in a field compromising of many also rans coupled with the odd possible improver. Win For Sure has often been seen in Graded company in his native Germany and this will infact be his first start in a handicap. A rallying third place a fortnight ago behind the impressive Mendip on the Tapeta surface showed the horse to be in peak form and I see no reason not to expect better on this occasion back on turf.
Monday, 24 January 2011
Sky Bet Chase - Dance Island Anyone?
With the five day entries list for Saturday's feature Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster now online we are able to get a more informed opinion over likely contenders and a possible outcome.
I have been keen to hunt the value early this week as I am a firm believer that an early bet on a race a few days prior to an event can yield a far better return than when betting on the actual day. Many punters are put off by the prospect of not getting a run for their money but the occasional non runner in my mind is acceptable as the winning rewards for an early bet are far greater. Alot of people will disagree with this theory but we are all entitled to our opinion.
I have been keen to hunt the value early this week as I am a firm believer that an early bet on a race a few days prior to an event can yield a far better return than when betting on the actual day. Many punters are put off by the prospect of not getting a run for their money but the occasional non runner in my mind is acceptable as the winning rewards for an early bet are far greater. Alot of people will disagree with this theory but we are all entitled to our opinion.
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Looking Ahead / Lucky Lays
Doncaster hosts the Skybet Listed Handicap Chase next weekend over a stamina engaging three miles that looks sure to be hotly contested this season after the abandonment of the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock yesterday.
Prices are already available with most bookmakers for this event and it could be a race that rewards an early antepost punt at a big price.
Prices are already available with most bookmakers for this event and it could be a race that rewards an early antepost punt at a big price.
Wayward Trend Of The Day
Has anyone in the world noticed that in the Irish Champion Hurdle this afternoon at 2.45 that Hurricane Fly will have to defy his previous career form to indeed win!
At 1-2 he is an ugly looking price but there is no doubt at the present time he is the best Ireland has got in the hurdling division.
However Hurricane Fly has never previously won more than three starts in succession and today he tries to claim for the first time a fourth win on the bounce.
At the same time Solwhit has never previously ran more than two races without winning!
Crazy! Could it be that this simple fact makes Solwhit the winner of todays big race?
Anyonelse having a fun bet just incase? 4-1 on Betfair against Solwhit makes it rather tempting!
At 1-2 he is an ugly looking price but there is no doubt at the present time he is the best Ireland has got in the hurdling division.
However Hurricane Fly has never previously won more than three starts in succession and today he tries to claim for the first time a fourth win on the bounce.
At the same time Solwhit has never previously ran more than two races without winning!
Crazy! Could it be that this simple fact makes Solwhit the winner of todays big race?
Anyonelse having a fun bet just incase? 4-1 on Betfair against Solwhit makes it rather tempting!
Noble Prince and Mr Cracker...
In the 1.45 Frank Ward Solicitors Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1) at Leopardstown today I feel Noble Prince can improve sufficiently to challenge now he has a couple of races behind him. Last time out he fought hard and stayed on to come 2nd in the Grade 1 Novice Chase over the same course and distance 24 days ago.
The winner that day was Realt Dubh but he was a more experienced Novice and when comparing these two rivals over hurdles there is no arguing that Noble Prince was the better. It should be alot closer between the two this afternoon so the 5-1 available about Noble Prince is interesting enough.
Willie Mullins probably holds all the aces with his very unexposed and inexperienced Flat Out. This horse could be a star in the making but has been very lightly raced. Having only had one chase start there have to be doubts about the likelihood he can win this race so soon but if he did succeed here he will noticeably shorten in price for whatever Cheltenham race he holds an entry in.
Interesting race.
Pundit Pointer:
1.45 - Noble Prince (1pt @ 5-1 Bet365)
UPDATE:
I have noticed the trainer quotes regarding MR CRACKER in this race and he has suggested previously that the horse would improve for going left handed. Having only raced right handed so far in his chasing career he has accomplished himself as a classy horse in a lower grade. Now he is faced with the prospect of finally going left handed he may be about to jump from the front and set a decent gallop to put some of his less experienced rivals to shame. I feel he is monster value to bet pre-race and lay off at short odds inrunning
My additional advice is:
Back Mr Cracker at 9-1 on Betfair
Lay in-running at 3-1 on Betfair (4.0)
The winner that day was Realt Dubh but he was a more experienced Novice and when comparing these two rivals over hurdles there is no arguing that Noble Prince was the better. It should be alot closer between the two this afternoon so the 5-1 available about Noble Prince is interesting enough.
Willie Mullins probably holds all the aces with his very unexposed and inexperienced Flat Out. This horse could be a star in the making but has been very lightly raced. Having only had one chase start there have to be doubts about the likelihood he can win this race so soon but if he did succeed here he will noticeably shorten in price for whatever Cheltenham race he holds an entry in.
Interesting race.
Pundit Pointer:
1.45 - Noble Prince (1pt @ 5-1 Bet365)
UPDATE:
I have noticed the trainer quotes regarding MR CRACKER in this race and he has suggested previously that the horse would improve for going left handed. Having only raced right handed so far in his chasing career he has accomplished himself as a classy horse in a lower grade. Now he is faced with the prospect of finally going left handed he may be about to jump from the front and set a decent gallop to put some of his less experienced rivals to shame. I feel he is monster value to bet pre-race and lay off at short odds inrunning
My additional advice is:
Back Mr Cracker at 9-1 on Betfair
Lay in-running at 3-1 on Betfair (4.0)
Late Late Night
I am going to look at the cards due to the quality of the racing on offer in some races at Leopardstown today but having been out drinking until the early hours I am not certain to be placing any bets this afternoon unless something strikes out at me.
Come back just incase though! Yesterday admittedly was a mess. Hopefully more proof to myself of why I should not back favourites! The only sensible bet perhaps yesterday maybe was the forecast attempt with Master Minded and Mad Max at 7-1 but Somersby went and ruined that faint hope.
Not an horrendous Saturday though as there were only three bets but perhaps if I am having to side with favourites in races in future I should just not bet in the race.
Maybe I should have reviewed the Wincanton cards but having not looked at them at all approaching Saturday I felt I did not have enough time to do it justice.
Come back just incase though! Yesterday admittedly was a mess. Hopefully more proof to myself of why I should not back favourites! The only sensible bet perhaps yesterday maybe was the forecast attempt with Master Minded and Mad Max at 7-1 but Somersby went and ruined that faint hope.
Not an horrendous Saturday though as there were only three bets but perhaps if I am having to side with favourites in races in future I should just not bet in the race.
Maybe I should have reviewed the Wincanton cards but having not looked at them at all approaching Saturday I felt I did not have enough time to do it justice.
Saturday, 22 January 2011
Saturday Preview - Televised Racing At Ascot
After the belated and mildly surprising cancellation of the Haydock meeting this morning and Ireland's big meeting at Gowran Park it leaves me with Ascot to assess over the next few hours.
Luckily I have been checking the racecard for the Ascot meeting on a daily basis this week as Haydock with their current management are a liability and cannot be trusted to provide racing as scheduled these days.
First up on the agenda is the 1.50 1942 Was A Vintage Year Mares´ Hurdle (Grade 2) which was a race when I reviewed it midweek that I noted as being contested by likely clear favourite Carole's Legacy. To my surprise this morning when the bookmakers have released their odds the mare is a 13-8 chance with Ladbrokes with the second favourite L'Accordioniste 2-1. I have reassessed the form as a result and even with a 5lb Grade 2 penalty to carry I feel Carole's Legacy is more of a 5-4 chance with the rest of the field needing fairly significant improvement to take her on. A three mile trip should be just about perfect for the favourite as she is yet to be beaten over such a distance in her career with three outings over 3m+ to date and three wins. Compare this feat to her two nearest market challengers and you will note that both will be stepping up in trip today to tackle her and so in my opinion despite the short price that 13-8 is a good enough price to take in the circumstances.
The next scheduled race is the days feature event run over 2m 1f. This is the 2.25 Victor Chandler Chase (Grade 1) where Master Minded is expected to rout his rivals once again. Place bets and forecast bets are the only plausible angle for me to show any interest in here and I may opt out of the race from a personal betting point of view. The intriguing angle could come in the form of one of my Totesport Tentofollow entrants Mad Max who is a reasonable price at 12-1 and definitely commands some respect. Already a Grade 2 Novice winner when putting in a solid effort to beat Somersby in the Manifesto Novices Chase at Aintree last season Mad Max has shown impressive form to date on the whole.
The form sequence of Mad Max when not contesting a Cheltenham event is highly impressive with five wins and a third to date. Clearly these runs have come mostly in a lesser grade but there needs to be a consideration that perhaps Cheltenham is not his preferred track and the flatter layout of Ascot will be more to his advantage in this race. If Master Minded is on his game today he cannot be beaten but for those considering the forecast of place bet I would not put you off a small play on Nicky Henderson's Mad Max considering the form that the trainer finds himself in of late.
There are still no expectations by me in the 2.55 Holloway´s Hurdle (Limited Handicap) Grade 2 race. Quite often the formula for finding a successful value bet is recognising a race with a somewhat dodgy favourite. Soldatino's forecast odds for todays race were just 5-2 which was an absurdly short price but punters were not fooled and layers have given fair odds of 4-1 about last seasons Triumph Hurdle winner to progress again here. The fact remains though that with 309 days off the track and improvement needed, is that likely? The Henderson stable is undoubtedly in form but with this race unlikely to be his main target of the season I suspect they would be happy with just a "good run".
Notus De La Tour the now 3-1 favourite is being backed off the boards this morning as if defeat is not an option but he is another contender who features after a sizeable absence as do several others. This race looks on paper like it will be run at a ferocious gallop and that must cause concern with several of the field only knowing how to win from the front. Horses worth watching for future reference include Walkon and Shalone who could progress and capture Grade 1 honours later this year but I must maintain my discipline as there is no value on Notus De La Tour and questions to be answered elsewhere.
Annoyingly I cannot find any real prospect at value odds as a win only contender from Ascot's feature events. In the last televised victorchandler.com Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) at 3.30 Breedsbreeze should be able to outclass his rivals giving weight away. Formerly a Grade 1 Novice Chase winner before injury took over he made a gracious reappearance 38 days ago when being outbattled by the no nonsense Tartak in the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase. However what do you get when you put a topclass Graded horse in a handicap? More often than not - THE WINNER!
The fact remains that to a muscular animal such as a thoroughbred racehorse a little additional weight makes invariably no difference. This is why in handicaps the top racehorses often win unless the ground is bottomless where lightweights often hold an advantage. 2-1 is a storming price for a contender I feel would not be wrong still at 6-4. Rare Bob was my selection in a handicap recently and being a former Grade 1 winner look where he finished. Infront!
Pundit Pointers:
1.50 - Carole's Legacy (1pt @ 13-8 Ladbrokes)
2.25 - Master Minded / Mad Max (0.5pt S/F'cast Bet @ 7-1 Bet365)
3.30 - Breedsbreeze (1.5pts @ 2-1 Sportingbet)
My bets are mediocre prices compared to my usual double figured offerings. Apologies but Haydock has cost me as I felt I had a monster price ready to win there! I have done some additional personal multiple bets with these selections in an attempt to win big. This is my attempt at making it more interesting when betting on the leading contenders! Something I do not like to do that often.
Luckily I have been checking the racecard for the Ascot meeting on a daily basis this week as Haydock with their current management are a liability and cannot be trusted to provide racing as scheduled these days.
First up on the agenda is the 1.50 1942 Was A Vintage Year Mares´ Hurdle (Grade 2) which was a race when I reviewed it midweek that I noted as being contested by likely clear favourite Carole's Legacy. To my surprise this morning when the bookmakers have released their odds the mare is a 13-8 chance with Ladbrokes with the second favourite L'Accordioniste 2-1. I have reassessed the form as a result and even with a 5lb Grade 2 penalty to carry I feel Carole's Legacy is more of a 5-4 chance with the rest of the field needing fairly significant improvement to take her on. A three mile trip should be just about perfect for the favourite as she is yet to be beaten over such a distance in her career with three outings over 3m+ to date and three wins. Compare this feat to her two nearest market challengers and you will note that both will be stepping up in trip today to tackle her and so in my opinion despite the short price that 13-8 is a good enough price to take in the circumstances.
The next scheduled race is the days feature event run over 2m 1f. This is the 2.25 Victor Chandler Chase (Grade 1) where Master Minded is expected to rout his rivals once again. Place bets and forecast bets are the only plausible angle for me to show any interest in here and I may opt out of the race from a personal betting point of view. The intriguing angle could come in the form of one of my Totesport Tentofollow entrants Mad Max who is a reasonable price at 12-1 and definitely commands some respect. Already a Grade 2 Novice winner when putting in a solid effort to beat Somersby in the Manifesto Novices Chase at Aintree last season Mad Max has shown impressive form to date on the whole.
The form sequence of Mad Max when not contesting a Cheltenham event is highly impressive with five wins and a third to date. Clearly these runs have come mostly in a lesser grade but there needs to be a consideration that perhaps Cheltenham is not his preferred track and the flatter layout of Ascot will be more to his advantage in this race. If Master Minded is on his game today he cannot be beaten but for those considering the forecast of place bet I would not put you off a small play on Nicky Henderson's Mad Max considering the form that the trainer finds himself in of late.
There are still no expectations by me in the 2.55 Holloway´s Hurdle (Limited Handicap) Grade 2 race. Quite often the formula for finding a successful value bet is recognising a race with a somewhat dodgy favourite. Soldatino's forecast odds for todays race were just 5-2 which was an absurdly short price but punters were not fooled and layers have given fair odds of 4-1 about last seasons Triumph Hurdle winner to progress again here. The fact remains though that with 309 days off the track and improvement needed, is that likely? The Henderson stable is undoubtedly in form but with this race unlikely to be his main target of the season I suspect they would be happy with just a "good run".
Notus De La Tour the now 3-1 favourite is being backed off the boards this morning as if defeat is not an option but he is another contender who features after a sizeable absence as do several others. This race looks on paper like it will be run at a ferocious gallop and that must cause concern with several of the field only knowing how to win from the front. Horses worth watching for future reference include Walkon and Shalone who could progress and capture Grade 1 honours later this year but I must maintain my discipline as there is no value on Notus De La Tour and questions to be answered elsewhere.
Annoyingly I cannot find any real prospect at value odds as a win only contender from Ascot's feature events. In the last televised victorchandler.com Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) at 3.30 Breedsbreeze should be able to outclass his rivals giving weight away. Formerly a Grade 1 Novice Chase winner before injury took over he made a gracious reappearance 38 days ago when being outbattled by the no nonsense Tartak in the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase. However what do you get when you put a topclass Graded horse in a handicap? More often than not - THE WINNER!
The fact remains that to a muscular animal such as a thoroughbred racehorse a little additional weight makes invariably no difference. This is why in handicaps the top racehorses often win unless the ground is bottomless where lightweights often hold an advantage. 2-1 is a storming price for a contender I feel would not be wrong still at 6-4. Rare Bob was my selection in a handicap recently and being a former Grade 1 winner look where he finished. Infront!
Pundit Pointers:
1.50 - Carole's Legacy (1pt @ 13-8 Ladbrokes)
2.25 - Master Minded / Mad Max (0.5pt S/F'cast Bet @ 7-1 Bet365)
3.30 - Breedsbreeze (1.5pts @ 2-1 Sportingbet)
My bets are mediocre prices compared to my usual double figured offerings. Apologies but Haydock has cost me as I felt I had a monster price ready to win there! I have done some additional personal multiple bets with these selections in an attempt to win big. This is my attempt at making it more interesting when betting on the leading contenders! Something I do not like to do that often.
Haydock Abandoned - What a Surprise....
Haydock's Peter Marsh Meeting was cancelled after an early inspection this morning. The clerk of the course Kirkland Tellwright in his wisdom had decided it was unnecessary to cover the course. Indeed the inspection was only a precaution after Kirkland Tellwright had told owners, trainers and media alike that it should be "ok".
This is not the first time he has deceived connections and racegoers over the likelihood of a meetings safety.
Something very fishy going on and it could be viewed that perhaps with their lack of an attempt to get the meeting to survive the cold weather that maybe the meetings cancellation is a good result for the track financially.
There seriously needs to be a change. This has ruined my day on a sporting front but now I have more time perhaps to concentrate on some of the other races on offer this morning from the more professional Ascot racecourse. However it is very frustrating from a betting point of view as my focus this week had been in finding a winner at the now abandoned meeting!
This is not the first time he has deceived connections and racegoers over the likelihood of a meetings safety.
Something very fishy going on and it could be viewed that perhaps with their lack of an attempt to get the meeting to survive the cold weather that maybe the meetings cancellation is a good result for the track financially.
There seriously needs to be a change. This has ruined my day on a sporting front but now I have more time perhaps to concentrate on some of the other races on offer this morning from the more professional Ascot racecourse. However it is very frustrating from a betting point of view as my focus this week had been in finding a winner at the now abandoned meeting!
Thursday, 20 January 2011
A Good Betting Read
Being a very moderate collector of Racing Books I often find them fascinating and the only literature that I thoroughly enjoy and can read from beginning to end in almost no time at all. I mention that I am a moderate collector as I only have a vague few that I have purchased over the years and one of them is in pieces thanks to the burning sun in Cancun which saturated the glue of my 'Winning Horse Racing Formulae' paperback whilst on holiday a few years ago. This left me scantily clad running around the beach chasing loose pages before they blew into the sea - not a pretty sight at all (and by that I mean me being scantily clad).
I came across a new addition to my small collection today when a work colleague spotted a book that she felt had my name written all over it. It was a book first written in 1992 entitled "Betting For A Living" written by Nick Mordin. Obviously so far I have only read small sections of it and due to the date it was written some aspects of it are perhaps outdated but I ascertain that it is definitely worth looking for either online or in book/charity shops.
There is a thorough examination of racing within the pages of this possible gem of a book and whilst it cannot be said that I will be taking everything that I read with all seriousness there look to be several offerings that I feel will help me with my ongoing education into horse racing and the many betting principles involved within.
One of the more disturbing highlights of the book has to come from P.142. System 7 - The Lady Jockeys System.
Rules: Bet any horse starting at 3-1 or less that is ridden by a woman against men in an amateur rider's race.
Absolutely brilliant! I could not imagine myself even considering ever betting on a female jockey at such short odds yet this book claims that over 3 seasons on the flat and 1 season in the National Hunt game this system in the very early 90's brought about a 24% profit on original investment.
I do not want to further spoil the book for those who wish to enquire into it's current existence. Whilst I may not agree that the above System is one which I would ever entertain the thought of using there is a vast array of information spanning over 300 pages which really should be read by anyone interested in making a profit and learning more about the sport of kings.
Highly recommended and I have not even read it all yet! Check out some of the customer reviews on Amazon by following the below book link and let me know if it gets added to your collection in the near future!
Link To Book: Betting For A Living
Link To Author: Nick Mordin
I came across a new addition to my small collection today when a work colleague spotted a book that she felt had my name written all over it. It was a book first written in 1992 entitled "Betting For A Living" written by Nick Mordin. Obviously so far I have only read small sections of it and due to the date it was written some aspects of it are perhaps outdated but I ascertain that it is definitely worth looking for either online or in book/charity shops.
There is a thorough examination of racing within the pages of this possible gem of a book and whilst it cannot be said that I will be taking everything that I read with all seriousness there look to be several offerings that I feel will help me with my ongoing education into horse racing and the many betting principles involved within.
One of the more disturbing highlights of the book has to come from P.142. System 7 - The Lady Jockeys System.
Rules: Bet any horse starting at 3-1 or less that is ridden by a woman against men in an amateur rider's race.
Absolutely brilliant! I could not imagine myself even considering ever betting on a female jockey at such short odds yet this book claims that over 3 seasons on the flat and 1 season in the National Hunt game this system in the very early 90's brought about a 24% profit on original investment.
I do not want to further spoil the book for those who wish to enquire into it's current existence. Whilst I may not agree that the above System is one which I would ever entertain the thought of using there is a vast array of information spanning over 300 pages which really should be read by anyone interested in making a profit and learning more about the sport of kings.
Highly recommended and I have not even read it all yet! Check out some of the customer reviews on Amazon by following the below book link and let me know if it gets added to your collection in the near future!
Link To Book: Betting For A Living
Link To Author: Nick Mordin
Tuesday, 18 January 2011
Dubai Carnival 2011
Many will have noticed that the Dubai Carnival began last Thursday and that I never gave it a mention on these pages. This is mostly due to the consideration that I probably would have been wasting my money as I did last year (pre-oddspundit).
The main reason I found last years Dubai Carnival impossible to fathom was due to the Nad Al Sheba venue being replaced by the impressive Meydan racetrack. There were no statistics for the racetrack, no draw bias analysis or anything. I had no clues and little luck.
This year I will approach it more conservatively and now that I am armed with my blog I expect much better as good discipline should naturally follow.
I would advise anyone who is interested in betting on the 2011 Dubai Carnival to download the Racing Post Dubai Carnival PDF document available on the Racingpost.co.uk website.
I have not read through it yet myself but I am certain it will contain some useful information to assist us for when we plan the occasional VALUE attack over the coming weeks.
The main reason I found last years Dubai Carnival impossible to fathom was due to the Nad Al Sheba venue being replaced by the impressive Meydan racetrack. There were no statistics for the racetrack, no draw bias analysis or anything. I had no clues and little luck.
This year I will approach it more conservatively and now that I am armed with my blog I expect much better as good discipline should naturally follow.
I would advise anyone who is interested in betting on the 2011 Dubai Carnival to download the Racing Post Dubai Carnival PDF document available on the Racingpost.co.uk website.
I have not read through it yet myself but I am certain it will contain some useful information to assist us for when we plan the occasional VALUE attack over the coming weeks.
Another Weekend Awaits
The racecards for the weekend are now online across various sites and so my homework has begun in anticipation of finding some further good runs with my investments. Last weekend was delightful to watch and I was lucky enough to score in one of the Graded chases when West End Rocker prevailed in a hard fought totesport.com Classic Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) at Warwick.
It was strange as despite doing the most research for that race I never felt confident as I needed two runners on my side in order to feel slightly more comfortable in placing my bets for the race. Initially I had selected a shortlist of four in midweek for the race which had consisted of the the winner, Incentivise (3rd), Richard's Sundance (PU) and Officier De Reserve (PU). Ultimately I withdrew my interest in the latter due to my suspicion he brought little to the table at the prospective odds. After all Officier De Reserve had failed to win a chase event since 2007 so at 15-2 I felt you needed to be intoxicated to show any interest in him. Then there was Richard's Sundance who was more difficult to ignore as he fitted the profile in my view of a potential winner for the event. Luckily as I was debating between him and my other final two fancies I realised that he had only won on three occasions and each time it was on a right handed track. Therefore was he value to win a gruelling race travelling the opposite way around? I took a chance and decided he was not! Much to my horror though he was well supported in the betting and I began to turn pessimistic about the prospects of me having supported the correct two in the betting.
Fortunately though I had chosen wisely as both the horses I dropped from my line up failed to finish and I gave out a gentle fist pump knowing that no matter how badly my last bet of the day went afterwards I would still be in profit. I enjoyed it even more as I had topped up with a further 0.5pt stake on both my selections as they had drifted in the betting on Betfair pre-race! If I felt they were value before then a small drift meant they were amazing value now!
The important factor for the forthcoming weekend is to maintain my interest and keenness to revise the complications that the formbook continually has on offer. It is a menacing challenge but one which I am somewhat relishing at the moment. Give me a weekend of losers and my mentality may change come next week back to a lacklustre and sombre blogging mood!
As it stands I am planning my assault for a visit to Haydock this weekend where there are no fewer than FOUR Grade 2 races featured on the card. I attended the same meeting last year and enjoyed watching such horses as Peddler's Cross, Medermit, Diamond Harry and the superlative Our Vic all shine in their races. This years meeting will no doubt unearth some future gems with Peddler's Cross possibly being the main attraction this time around.
The race that I will most likely spend the greatest amount of time studying is the Peter Marsh Chase (Grade 2) Handicap as this is a hard race for many a horse to win where weaknesses can be exposed. If I just win this one race all weekend then I will assess it as time well spent.
It was strange as despite doing the most research for that race I never felt confident as I needed two runners on my side in order to feel slightly more comfortable in placing my bets for the race. Initially I had selected a shortlist of four in midweek for the race which had consisted of the the winner, Incentivise (3rd), Richard's Sundance (PU) and Officier De Reserve (PU). Ultimately I withdrew my interest in the latter due to my suspicion he brought little to the table at the prospective odds. After all Officier De Reserve had failed to win a chase event since 2007 so at 15-2 I felt you needed to be intoxicated to show any interest in him. Then there was Richard's Sundance who was more difficult to ignore as he fitted the profile in my view of a potential winner for the event. Luckily as I was debating between him and my other final two fancies I realised that he had only won on three occasions and each time it was on a right handed track. Therefore was he value to win a gruelling race travelling the opposite way around? I took a chance and decided he was not! Much to my horror though he was well supported in the betting and I began to turn pessimistic about the prospects of me having supported the correct two in the betting.
Fortunately though I had chosen wisely as both the horses I dropped from my line up failed to finish and I gave out a gentle fist pump knowing that no matter how badly my last bet of the day went afterwards I would still be in profit. I enjoyed it even more as I had topped up with a further 0.5pt stake on both my selections as they had drifted in the betting on Betfair pre-race! If I felt they were value before then a small drift meant they were amazing value now!
The important factor for the forthcoming weekend is to maintain my interest and keenness to revise the complications that the formbook continually has on offer. It is a menacing challenge but one which I am somewhat relishing at the moment. Give me a weekend of losers and my mentality may change come next week back to a lacklustre and sombre blogging mood!
As it stands I am planning my assault for a visit to Haydock this weekend where there are no fewer than FOUR Grade 2 races featured on the card. I attended the same meeting last year and enjoyed watching such horses as Peddler's Cross, Medermit, Diamond Harry and the superlative Our Vic all shine in their races. This years meeting will no doubt unearth some future gems with Peddler's Cross possibly being the main attraction this time around.
The race that I will most likely spend the greatest amount of time studying is the Peter Marsh Chase (Grade 2) Handicap as this is a hard race for many a horse to win where weaknesses can be exposed. If I just win this one race all weekend then I will assess it as time well spent.
Sunday, 16 January 2011
Unexpected Flos Las Bet Lined Up
I think I have only ever previously had one bet at Flos Las in my life so far and it was a winner! Galaxy Rock December 21st 2009 - Never to be forgotton!
Ironic then that both that winner and todays selection both have Irish connections as todays sole interest comes in the 3.15 Marubeni Komatsu Handicap Chase (CLASS 3).
There are no previous trends for the race as the track is still finding its feet in terms of which races to host and meetings to provide so that is a hinderence. However if you look at the racecard for this race the topweight is only rated 125 so it is an average Class 3 race at best.
With only 8 runners scheduled to go to post it is a race that has potential to be studied with optimism. Two of the field have had long absences coming into the race with Kildonnan having had 324 days off the track and Tamadot the race favourite 700 days. The latter is the prescribed favourite for this event as the handicapper has been lenient upon his absence and reduced his handicap rating for this debut by 10lb to give him an intriguing mark of 125. However with such an absence to overcome he becomes an unrealistic bet at the price.
Pak Jack another contender has seen better days and is now in the latter stages of his career at the age of 11. Meanwhile at the bottom of the weights a horse called Sweden is only 3-1 in the market yet has little form on offer to make him such a price. Rated only 108 there is surely better to come but it is not assured and therefore a silly price from my point of view.
Federstar is another contender but surely will not run having raced at Warwick yesterday in the mud whilst Sporting Rebel is another well touted runner but has had two months off and is running from his handicap mark to date at the age of 11. Another no bet which is what can be said about 125 rated Costa Courta who needs to win off a mark 14lb higher than his previous best. Unlikely under top weight in these conditions.
This leaves me through a process of elimination with my only realistic contender being the 9yo Money Order who runs in the J P McManus colours. The horse has started this season waywardly admittedly but could have been finding fitness with some irregular runs. There is also the likelihood that his handicap mark over hurdles is over zealous at 130 so connections revert to fences here where Money Order is able to run off a mark of just 121.
Richie McLernon is a very capable rider able to claim another 3lb so that gives him a solid handicap mark for this event of just 118. Now lets be honest here with this. Would J P McManus seriously retain ownership of a horse running off a mark of 118 if he did not think it could earn him some money? I have my doubts and so this horse on paper looks a realistic bet at a favourable price of 7-1.
He was a good horse before an injury setback in winter 2007 having claimed four wins in just five career outings. Since reappearing in January 2009 he has only been successful once but he did show signs of regaining his form early last year. Money Order has failed to spring into life so far this season but with fitness regained and off a reasonable handicap mark he could be the one that wins against a collective group of mediocrity.
Pundit Pointer:
3.15 - Money Order (1pt @ 7-1 Ladbrokes)
Ironic then that both that winner and todays selection both have Irish connections as todays sole interest comes in the 3.15 Marubeni Komatsu Handicap Chase (CLASS 3).
There are no previous trends for the race as the track is still finding its feet in terms of which races to host and meetings to provide so that is a hinderence. However if you look at the racecard for this race the topweight is only rated 125 so it is an average Class 3 race at best.
With only 8 runners scheduled to go to post it is a race that has potential to be studied with optimism. Two of the field have had long absences coming into the race with Kildonnan having had 324 days off the track and Tamadot the race favourite 700 days. The latter is the prescribed favourite for this event as the handicapper has been lenient upon his absence and reduced his handicap rating for this debut by 10lb to give him an intriguing mark of 125. However with such an absence to overcome he becomes an unrealistic bet at the price.
Pak Jack another contender has seen better days and is now in the latter stages of his career at the age of 11. Meanwhile at the bottom of the weights a horse called Sweden is only 3-1 in the market yet has little form on offer to make him such a price. Rated only 108 there is surely better to come but it is not assured and therefore a silly price from my point of view.
Federstar is another contender but surely will not run having raced at Warwick yesterday in the mud whilst Sporting Rebel is another well touted runner but has had two months off and is running from his handicap mark to date at the age of 11. Another no bet which is what can be said about 125 rated Costa Courta who needs to win off a mark 14lb higher than his previous best. Unlikely under top weight in these conditions.
This leaves me through a process of elimination with my only realistic contender being the 9yo Money Order who runs in the J P McManus colours. The horse has started this season waywardly admittedly but could have been finding fitness with some irregular runs. There is also the likelihood that his handicap mark over hurdles is over zealous at 130 so connections revert to fences here where Money Order is able to run off a mark of just 121.
Richie McLernon is a very capable rider able to claim another 3lb so that gives him a solid handicap mark for this event of just 118. Now lets be honest here with this. Would J P McManus seriously retain ownership of a horse running off a mark of 118 if he did not think it could earn him some money? I have my doubts and so this horse on paper looks a realistic bet at a favourable price of 7-1.
He was a good horse before an injury setback in winter 2007 having claimed four wins in just five career outings. Since reappearing in January 2009 he has only been successful once but he did show signs of regaining his form early last year. Money Order has failed to spring into life so far this season but with fitness regained and off a reasonable handicap mark he could be the one that wins against a collective group of mediocrity.
Pundit Pointer:
3.15 - Money Order (1pt @ 7-1 Ladbrokes)
Saturday, 15 January 2011
King George Prediction
A small personal note that I did indeed predict the FIRST FIVE finishers home in the King George VI Chase during my preview earlier this week (See HERE). Admittedly though I was almost incorrect with all their placings with only Riverside Theatre running as I thought in 2nd. The fact I could safely predict the first five home and ignore the loosely hyped up also rans yet still be totally incorrect with my thoughts shows you just how difficult a race it was to assess.
Kauto Star showed his age but was still a commendable third and can continue to perhaps pick up another Grade 1 in Ireland or good place money on these shores should connections wish to carry on after the Gold Cup in March. The winner Long Run proved my doubts to be far fetched as his class shone steadily through under his amateur jockey Sam Waley-Cohen. I strangely covered my eyes for every jump that Kauto Star ensued from the start which indicates that inside I was indecisive and cautious about what may entail for the great as the tape was raised.
Kauto Star still remains a great horse but I must be one of the few people that has never even placed a penny on him to win in his lifetime. He has often been minimal odds and my love of finding the bigger prices means that I could never even be tempted to part with my cash on a short priced favourite with multiple fences in it's path. That situation is not for me no matter who the horse is.
Kauto Star showed his age but was still a commendable third and can continue to perhaps pick up another Grade 1 in Ireland or good place money on these shores should connections wish to carry on after the Gold Cup in March. The winner Long Run proved my doubts to be far fetched as his class shone steadily through under his amateur jockey Sam Waley-Cohen. I strangely covered my eyes for every jump that Kauto Star ensued from the start which indicates that inside I was indecisive and cautious about what may entail for the great as the tape was raised.
Kauto Star still remains a great horse but I must be one of the few people that has never even placed a penny on him to win in his lifetime. He has often been minimal odds and my love of finding the bigger prices means that I could never even be tempted to part with my cash on a short priced favourite with multiple fences in it's path. That situation is not for me no matter who the horse is.
Revision Pays Off Again
The day began on a positive note when I awoke to find that Warwick had passed its early morning inspection at 8am. Normally it would not have bothered me but I had put some hard work into the revision of the totesport.com Classic Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) and it would have been unpleasant to have not had the chance to place my bet.
In the end I almost claimed the 1-2 finish with my two selections but had to settle for 1st and 3rd. West End Rocker proved what had been illustrated in his early career form by loving the extended distance and much to my delight appreciating the heavy ground. It was the latter that was the worry and as such he drifted from the early morning 8-1 out to an incredible 10-1SP which was so much value that I ended up adding a top up to my bet! Excellent.
Meanwhile credit to Incentivise who did indeed continue to progress and managed a gutsy third place having raced at the rear of runners for much of the way. His light weight came into play and he stayed on all the way to the line to show that staying is his game.
The betting aspect of the day had started off quite tediously when my opening bet Bible Lord was backed in from 8-1 down to just a 4-1SP. My brain should have engaged at this point and told myself take the free bet and lay off but I decided to ride it out and hope it was "informed" money. Ultimately it was probably just money from your everyday punter who realised his handicap mark had reached an all-time low. What should be noted though is a handicapper only assesses a horse based on performances. There is no use sometimes backing a horse that has slipped 13lb in the ratings in 15 months because this is the horse the handicapper is presented with now and that was then. Just because a horse was highly rated during 2009 does not mean he is going to be any good in 2011. It is the chance we take and the only positive about this is that perhaps I was betting at a value price. The people betting on Bible Lord at just 4-1 were simply nutters!
The Grade 1's on the Kempton card were terrific races to watch and Binocular proved his worth with a determined run in the soft ground to prevail with abit up his sleeve in the Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1). My hope that he would not quite be primed did not materialise and my fourth in the betting tip Overturn therefore could only claim 2nd. It was still a brilliant effort from the outsider having had 180 days off the track whilst uncertain to be suited by the softish ground. Starluck and Khyber Kim were pretty dire in behind and rightly ignored by myself in the race preview.
The only remaining bets lined up floundered in the Lanzarote Hurdle (Class 2) handicap. This was a race I had revisited on no less than three occasions throughout this week and on each occasion I could not quite determine who was on my shortlist. It was a race I should not have touched and perhaps where discipline was lacking on my part. Azertac never got into the race on this occasion and Bygones Of Brid nearly chopped Tony McCoy in half when the jockey departed two thirds of the way round.
This was a lapse of my discipline and one which I will remind myself of by re-reading this posting before I do the same approach to my betting for the racing next weekend. I hope to be visiting Haydock next Saturday for the probable visit of Peddler's Cross but I will resist the temptation to go if no competitive and interesting betting races are offered on the card. After all it would be absurd to focus all my attention on finding personal glory at Haydock when I could be finding value in offerings elsewhere.
Lastly I envisage there will be no betting by me on Sunday as the ground is heavy in Ireland and likely to be cancelled. Meanwhile in Great Britain Flos Las hosts a run-of-the-mill card that offers little inspiration for me to try and solve.
I am going to save myself now for another methodical but hopeful punt next weekend. Can there be a reward for the fourth consecutive betting day that we have attempted in 2011? Hopefully!
Strange as this is 100% not my favourite time of year with regards to placing any bets.
In the end I almost claimed the 1-2 finish with my two selections but had to settle for 1st and 3rd. West End Rocker proved what had been illustrated in his early career form by loving the extended distance and much to my delight appreciating the heavy ground. It was the latter that was the worry and as such he drifted from the early morning 8-1 out to an incredible 10-1SP which was so much value that I ended up adding a top up to my bet! Excellent.
Meanwhile credit to Incentivise who did indeed continue to progress and managed a gutsy third place having raced at the rear of runners for much of the way. His light weight came into play and he stayed on all the way to the line to show that staying is his game.
The betting aspect of the day had started off quite tediously when my opening bet Bible Lord was backed in from 8-1 down to just a 4-1SP. My brain should have engaged at this point and told myself take the free bet and lay off but I decided to ride it out and hope it was "informed" money. Ultimately it was probably just money from your everyday punter who realised his handicap mark had reached an all-time low. What should be noted though is a handicapper only assesses a horse based on performances. There is no use sometimes backing a horse that has slipped 13lb in the ratings in 15 months because this is the horse the handicapper is presented with now and that was then. Just because a horse was highly rated during 2009 does not mean he is going to be any good in 2011. It is the chance we take and the only positive about this is that perhaps I was betting at a value price. The people betting on Bible Lord at just 4-1 were simply nutters!
The Grade 1's on the Kempton card were terrific races to watch and Binocular proved his worth with a determined run in the soft ground to prevail with abit up his sleeve in the Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1). My hope that he would not quite be primed did not materialise and my fourth in the betting tip Overturn therefore could only claim 2nd. It was still a brilliant effort from the outsider having had 180 days off the track whilst uncertain to be suited by the softish ground. Starluck and Khyber Kim were pretty dire in behind and rightly ignored by myself in the race preview.
The only remaining bets lined up floundered in the Lanzarote Hurdle (Class 2) handicap. This was a race I had revisited on no less than three occasions throughout this week and on each occasion I could not quite determine who was on my shortlist. It was a race I should not have touched and perhaps where discipline was lacking on my part. Azertac never got into the race on this occasion and Bygones Of Brid nearly chopped Tony McCoy in half when the jockey departed two thirds of the way round.
This was a lapse of my discipline and one which I will remind myself of by re-reading this posting before I do the same approach to my betting for the racing next weekend. I hope to be visiting Haydock next Saturday for the probable visit of Peddler's Cross but I will resist the temptation to go if no competitive and interesting betting races are offered on the card. After all it would be absurd to focus all my attention on finding personal glory at Haydock when I could be finding value in offerings elsewhere.
Lastly I envisage there will be no betting by me on Sunday as the ground is heavy in Ireland and likely to be cancelled. Meanwhile in Great Britain Flos Las hosts a run-of-the-mill card that offers little inspiration for me to try and solve.
I am going to save myself now for another methodical but hopeful punt next weekend. Can there be a reward for the fourth consecutive betting day that we have attempted in 2011? Hopefully!
Strange as this is 100% not my favourite time of year with regards to placing any bets.
Saturday Racing - Warwick / Kempton Betting Preview
Having already written my preview for the King George VI Chase (Grade 1) earlier this week there will be no mention of the race here and no bets either as I concentrate only on finding races where I feel the market offers value and the favourite can be exposed.
There first betting activities that I have planned for Saturday come in the 1.55 William Hill - Home of Betting Handicap Chase. This is a Class 3 race so it is lower than the level I normally revise the form of but it looks like a good enough race to possibly gain some early rewards from so the rest of the afternoon can become stress free!
In this race it could be worth siding with one of the runners that has not had his preparations hindered and actually got to run during December. Many of the entrants here come into the race off the back of a two month break or more and that can never be ideal unless the horse is proven to go very well fresh.
Bible Lord is the selection after deliberating between his chance and some of the other main fancies for the race. It is very hard to ignore his dropping handicap mark in the acknowledgement that his performances of late have been slightly improved. Despite several runs over three miles or further throughout Bible Lord's career it is worth pointing out that he has never won under rules beyond todays trip. The last of those successes came 15 months ago when he ran at Wetherby over this distance in a Listed Chase handicap where he was rated 136 by the handicapper. Not far on and after several lacklustre runs the handicapper has been relenting his grip in the last two months and Bible Lord must enter calculations in ground which will not affect him and in a race he can race prominently in and reach shorter odds inrunning for. Last time out at Ffos Las Bible Lord was placed behind a very unexposed and well handicapped horse in first called Royal Tune. The runner up that day Plunkett was also well represented in the ratings and both were young horses still developing. Todays race features a series of horses aged eight and above who have experience behind them so with improvers less likely here Bible Lord can regain the winning thread now he is rated just 124.
At 2.25 it is the williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1). A small field has assembled for this race but the quality on offer is exemplery with the one-two finishers from last years Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham again renewing rivalries. Others to feature include Starluck who was an unfortunate runner up in last years race behind Go Native. Also not to be forgotton is the Donald McCain improver Overturn who has proven he would be at home in a regular Graded hurdle but has no experience of competing against the true elite in this sphere as yet. Those who are willing could always just pray for lightning to strike the field and leave Bocamix to score!
It is a difficult race to assess and the betting suggests that this morning with three of the runners available at identical prices. Starluck is perhaps not being backed as I thought he would be given his love of this sharp, speedy track and that could possibly be down to the conditions as he is not sure to enjoy the soft parts of the course.
Binocular is publicly being declared by his trainer Nicky Henderson as being trained for "the big race in March" so whether he will be primed for this occasion - only he knows. Khyber Kim meanwhile has a race absence of 280 days to overcome and an exact two miles on a sharp track may not be enough of a test for his abundant stamina to stake a claim on matters at the finish.
This leaves me with a tempting proposal of a small bet being placed on Overturn who has been unconsidered by most pundits. Quicker ground would have been preferred but with the assurance that Overturn will be the pacesetter of the race he will be in charge of how the race pans out. He proved on the flat in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle that if given a lead he is not one that can easily be shifted and so there is some possible value here in setting up a pre race bet to lay off at shorter odds inrunning when may appear to be in control with two to jump. A very interesting and tactical affair is sure to occur and for that reason I feel the 15-2 shot could be the best value given the nature of the race.
The 3.35 williamhill.com Lanzarote Hurdle Handicap is a Class 2 race and I must impose a warning for anyone carrying out their own analysis of this race using the Racingpost website. Once again they have failed to link to the correct previous years results in their "past winners" tab. An error that should have been fixed no later than Thursday. They have no excuses with the revenue that they bring in through advertising and membership fees. The correct historical results can be viewed on Wikipedia.
In the last 12 renewals it is worth noting that 9 of the winners have weighed in under 11st. Of those that have weighed over that ceiling there have been signs of high class form previously. Interestingly you have to go back to 1988 to find a winner aged more than SEVEN!
My original selection before viewing the past trends would have been Tony McCoys mount Bygones Of Brid but he is an 8yo and is 11st so statistically he has only a minor chance in this. However for those not conforming to trends he is available at 25-1 on Betfair, enjoys soft ground, will stay the distance and is a former Grade 2 Novice Hurdle winner. A very big price I feel. A price so big that I feel I will kick myself should I not place at least a little on it. McCoy is not your typical jockey and the horse has not been overraced during his career. There is reason to suggest that he could take a hand in the finish and for that reason I will back him to place.
My win option for the race however goes to Ackertac which is Paddy Brennan's mount. He is bottom weight for this race and 1lb out of the handicap which means his jockey will be starving himself to obtain his minimal weight possible of just 10st. Rarely does a jockey slim down for a ride unless he feels it has an above average chance and on form it is easy to see why connections quite possibly feel optimistic about the outcome. Ackertac was a no nonsense winner of two Uttoxeter Novice hurdles back in the Autumn and has since turned his attentions to two outings at Cheltenham over extended trips. At Cheltenham on the first of those occasions the trip proved too far in the ground at 3m 2f and the horse gave way with two hurdles left having previously looked in with a chance. Next time out over just 3m in better ground the horse was brought down when staying on with three fences to go. This quicker track is an unknown but the trip should be adequate and the 10st weight he is set to carry ideal. This is arguably the most intriguing bet of my Kempton interests with 13-1 available on Betfair.
Due to the deteriorating ground at Warwick my only interest that remains there comes in the 3.20 totesport.com Classic Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3). In heavy ground this will be an absolute stamina sapping affair with a 3m 5f test awaiting those that start. Two that capture my imagination are West End Rocker and Incentivise.
West End Rocker is a decent sort but is unproven in both heavy ground and over an extended trip such as this. He has previously shown form though that suggests a staying test is what he requires and it was only when being hampered in last seasons Scottish National that his chances diminished. He is fairly handicapped with a mark of just 133 and fits the criteria of one of the more likely winner if he proves suited by the heavy going.
Incentivise was another to make my shortlist of four earlier this week and was then dismissed at that stage but I have reissued my faith in him by giving him a mention here. An interesting contender who may not be out of the equation despite being raised 8lb to a mark of 121 after his latest run. That day at Bangor he ran over 3m 6f and beat a horse of Donald McCains who was on a four timer and a very decent prospect. It was a commendable effort for a horse trying a marathon distance for the first time. The horse had shown signs previously of being capable over further when winning in heavy at Chepstow over 3m carrying 11st 7lb. That was a poor race but it showed his stamina traits off well and it was about time connections gave him the chance to impress at Bangor last time out. With 5lb claimer Giles Hawkins in the saddle his rise in the ratings is partially negated and he will be saddled in this contest with 9st 9lbs. A very dangerous weight for a proven stayer!
Pundit Pointers:
Kempton
1.55 - Bible Lord (1pt @ 8-1 Bet365)
2.25 - Overturn (1pt @ 7-1 Ladbrokes)
Inrunning I will have a lay set up at 4's (3-1) for my 1pt stake to recoup funds should he lose.
3.35 - Ackertac (1pt @ 13-1 Betfair)
3.35 - Bygones Of Brid (0.5pts @ 4-1 TO PLACE Betfair)
Warwick
3.20 - West End Rocker (1pt @ 8-1 Betfair)
3.20 - Incentivise (1pt @ 11-1 Bet365)
Note that should any Bet365 bet provide us with a fortunate winner we can claim a free bet on the next televised race! But BE QUICK to get that next bet placed or you miss out.
Back any single winner at 4/1 or more on a bet365 Feature Race and you can have a free bet to the same stake on the next bet365 Feature Race. If your free bet also wins at odds of 4/1 or more, you qualify for a free bet on the next bet365 Feature Race. Keep backing those winners and bet365 will keep giving you free bets! This offer is available with bet365 on two races per day when there is no scheduled live Channel 4 racing and now on every race live on the BBC!
There first betting activities that I have planned for Saturday come in the 1.55 William Hill - Home of Betting Handicap Chase. This is a Class 3 race so it is lower than the level I normally revise the form of but it looks like a good enough race to possibly gain some early rewards from so the rest of the afternoon can become stress free!
In this race it could be worth siding with one of the runners that has not had his preparations hindered and actually got to run during December. Many of the entrants here come into the race off the back of a two month break or more and that can never be ideal unless the horse is proven to go very well fresh.
Bible Lord is the selection after deliberating between his chance and some of the other main fancies for the race. It is very hard to ignore his dropping handicap mark in the acknowledgement that his performances of late have been slightly improved. Despite several runs over three miles or further throughout Bible Lord's career it is worth pointing out that he has never won under rules beyond todays trip. The last of those successes came 15 months ago when he ran at Wetherby over this distance in a Listed Chase handicap where he was rated 136 by the handicapper. Not far on and after several lacklustre runs the handicapper has been relenting his grip in the last two months and Bible Lord must enter calculations in ground which will not affect him and in a race he can race prominently in and reach shorter odds inrunning for. Last time out at Ffos Las Bible Lord was placed behind a very unexposed and well handicapped horse in first called Royal Tune. The runner up that day Plunkett was also well represented in the ratings and both were young horses still developing. Todays race features a series of horses aged eight and above who have experience behind them so with improvers less likely here Bible Lord can regain the winning thread now he is rated just 124.
At 2.25 it is the williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1). A small field has assembled for this race but the quality on offer is exemplery with the one-two finishers from last years Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham again renewing rivalries. Others to feature include Starluck who was an unfortunate runner up in last years race behind Go Native. Also not to be forgotton is the Donald McCain improver Overturn who has proven he would be at home in a regular Graded hurdle but has no experience of competing against the true elite in this sphere as yet. Those who are willing could always just pray for lightning to strike the field and leave Bocamix to score!
It is a difficult race to assess and the betting suggests that this morning with three of the runners available at identical prices. Starluck is perhaps not being backed as I thought he would be given his love of this sharp, speedy track and that could possibly be down to the conditions as he is not sure to enjoy the soft parts of the course.
Binocular is publicly being declared by his trainer Nicky Henderson as being trained for "the big race in March" so whether he will be primed for this occasion - only he knows. Khyber Kim meanwhile has a race absence of 280 days to overcome and an exact two miles on a sharp track may not be enough of a test for his abundant stamina to stake a claim on matters at the finish.
This leaves me with a tempting proposal of a small bet being placed on Overturn who has been unconsidered by most pundits. Quicker ground would have been preferred but with the assurance that Overturn will be the pacesetter of the race he will be in charge of how the race pans out. He proved on the flat in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle that if given a lead he is not one that can easily be shifted and so there is some possible value here in setting up a pre race bet to lay off at shorter odds inrunning when may appear to be in control with two to jump. A very interesting and tactical affair is sure to occur and for that reason I feel the 15-2 shot could be the best value given the nature of the race.
The 3.35 williamhill.com Lanzarote Hurdle Handicap is a Class 2 race and I must impose a warning for anyone carrying out their own analysis of this race using the Racingpost website. Once again they have failed to link to the correct previous years results in their "past winners" tab. An error that should have been fixed no later than Thursday. They have no excuses with the revenue that they bring in through advertising and membership fees. The correct historical results can be viewed on Wikipedia.
In the last 12 renewals it is worth noting that 9 of the winners have weighed in under 11st. Of those that have weighed over that ceiling there have been signs of high class form previously. Interestingly you have to go back to 1988 to find a winner aged more than SEVEN!
My original selection before viewing the past trends would have been Tony McCoys mount Bygones Of Brid but he is an 8yo and is 11st so statistically he has only a minor chance in this. However for those not conforming to trends he is available at 25-1 on Betfair, enjoys soft ground, will stay the distance and is a former Grade 2 Novice Hurdle winner. A very big price I feel. A price so big that I feel I will kick myself should I not place at least a little on it. McCoy is not your typical jockey and the horse has not been overraced during his career. There is reason to suggest that he could take a hand in the finish and for that reason I will back him to place.
My win option for the race however goes to Ackertac which is Paddy Brennan's mount. He is bottom weight for this race and 1lb out of the handicap which means his jockey will be starving himself to obtain his minimal weight possible of just 10st. Rarely does a jockey slim down for a ride unless he feels it has an above average chance and on form it is easy to see why connections quite possibly feel optimistic about the outcome. Ackertac was a no nonsense winner of two Uttoxeter Novice hurdles back in the Autumn and has since turned his attentions to two outings at Cheltenham over extended trips. At Cheltenham on the first of those occasions the trip proved too far in the ground at 3m 2f and the horse gave way with two hurdles left having previously looked in with a chance. Next time out over just 3m in better ground the horse was brought down when staying on with three fences to go. This quicker track is an unknown but the trip should be adequate and the 10st weight he is set to carry ideal. This is arguably the most intriguing bet of my Kempton interests with 13-1 available on Betfair.
Due to the deteriorating ground at Warwick my only interest that remains there comes in the 3.20 totesport.com Classic Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3). In heavy ground this will be an absolute stamina sapping affair with a 3m 5f test awaiting those that start. Two that capture my imagination are West End Rocker and Incentivise.
West End Rocker is a decent sort but is unproven in both heavy ground and over an extended trip such as this. He has previously shown form though that suggests a staying test is what he requires and it was only when being hampered in last seasons Scottish National that his chances diminished. He is fairly handicapped with a mark of just 133 and fits the criteria of one of the more likely winner if he proves suited by the heavy going.
Incentivise was another to make my shortlist of four earlier this week and was then dismissed at that stage but I have reissued my faith in him by giving him a mention here. An interesting contender who may not be out of the equation despite being raised 8lb to a mark of 121 after his latest run. That day at Bangor he ran over 3m 6f and beat a horse of Donald McCains who was on a four timer and a very decent prospect. It was a commendable effort for a horse trying a marathon distance for the first time. The horse had shown signs previously of being capable over further when winning in heavy at Chepstow over 3m carrying 11st 7lb. That was a poor race but it showed his stamina traits off well and it was about time connections gave him the chance to impress at Bangor last time out. With 5lb claimer Giles Hawkins in the saddle his rise in the ratings is partially negated and he will be saddled in this contest with 9st 9lbs. A very dangerous weight for a proven stayer!
Pundit Pointers:
Kempton
1.55 - Bible Lord (1pt @ 8-1 Bet365)
2.25 - Overturn (1pt @ 7-1 Ladbrokes)
Inrunning I will have a lay set up at 4's (3-1) for my 1pt stake to recoup funds should he lose.
3.35 - Ackertac (1pt @ 13-1 Betfair)
3.35 - Bygones Of Brid (0.5pts @ 4-1 TO PLACE Betfair)
Warwick
3.20 - West End Rocker (1pt @ 8-1 Betfair)
3.20 - Incentivise (1pt @ 11-1 Bet365)
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Phew - Warwick Passes 8am Inspection
Warwick has suffered with sizeable downpours all week and on Friday was nearly called off. An 8am inspection was called this morning and it was intimated that if any of the forecast rain arrived Friday evening then the meeting would be cancelled.
This would have left me with just Kempton and Wetherby to review and I was not keen to start divulging into the Class 3 and below races that Wetherby has on offer.
I thank my lucky stars this morning that the forecast rain never arrived and that I can finalise my plans and get an update out before lunchtime. Nothing has leapt out at me all week at incredible prices but there has been a few horses that have intrigued me. Now I just need to ignore the red herrings and the hyped up horses and try and find those that will be inclined to run a good race, get into the mix and hopefully win!
This would have left me with just Kempton and Wetherby to review and I was not keen to start divulging into the Class 3 and below races that Wetherby has on offer.
I thank my lucky stars this morning that the forecast rain never arrived and that I can finalise my plans and get an update out before lunchtime. Nothing has leapt out at me all week at incredible prices but there has been a few horses that have intrigued me. Now I just need to ignore the red herrings and the hyped up horses and try and find those that will be inclined to run a good race, get into the mix and hopefully win!
Thursday, 13 January 2011
Ready For The Weekend? Saturday Racing Preview
It is safe to say that Saturday is arguably the biggest racing day so far of 2011 (did you spot the sarcasm?) and I'm keen not to let the previous good weekend of very concise betting be ruined by an over the top elaborate play with those very winnings. This year I want to maintain a focused mindset when it comes to any investments and be very selective and methodical in my approach. There will definitely be no more cramming four or five races into just ninety minutes revision. Last weekend proved that an understanding of a race through detailed analysis can provide a good return despite no inside knowledge. A solid consistent run would be very welcome and the first step to being rewarded with that is by making sure I have consecutive good weekends.
The television cameras will be mainly focused on Kempton this weekend for the King George VI Chase (Grade 1) but with my preview already highlighting that it is not the greatest race for reaping financial rewards through betting I am keen to focus my betting on some of the televised support races.
There is a mild chance that I may have a small play on the Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) at Kempton despite there only being a small field. With doubts about the likely readiness of Binocular who is a leading player at 2-1 it could bring in some value regarding course lover Starluck and the very interesting third favourite Khyber Kim who should not lack in fitness despite having been off the track for 280 days.
The other main feature on an excellent Kempton Card held back from Boxing Day is the Lanzarote Hurdle. This is a Class 2 handicap event and looks likely to be contested by a very competitive field. Not certain if I will be able to learn of any strong trends regarding this race so this is not a betting certainty from my point of view and could possibly be a race that I just watch out of interest.
Elsewhere though there is the Classic Chase Grade 3 handicap at Warwick which appeals to me as a possible money spinner. At this stage of the week I have finalised my shortlist but not made any investments as I would like to see what develops in the betting. This race does appear to have some recurring trends but it has only been a marathon trip since 2004 and has not been run in consecutive years with no records to be found regarding any 2009 or 2010 renewals. The result of this could be that I recheck my findings again before I commit to any selections and voice them on here.
There are a further three high class races on offer at Warwick which I will need to engage myself with before Saturday with the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) likely to be the most interesting of these from a betting perspective.
Plenty to look forward to so lets hope good luck stays with us for another weekend.
The television cameras will be mainly focused on Kempton this weekend for the King George VI Chase (Grade 1) but with my preview already highlighting that it is not the greatest race for reaping financial rewards through betting I am keen to focus my betting on some of the televised support races.
There is a mild chance that I may have a small play on the Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) at Kempton despite there only being a small field. With doubts about the likely readiness of Binocular who is a leading player at 2-1 it could bring in some value regarding course lover Starluck and the very interesting third favourite Khyber Kim who should not lack in fitness despite having been off the track for 280 days.
The other main feature on an excellent Kempton Card held back from Boxing Day is the Lanzarote Hurdle. This is a Class 2 handicap event and looks likely to be contested by a very competitive field. Not certain if I will be able to learn of any strong trends regarding this race so this is not a betting certainty from my point of view and could possibly be a race that I just watch out of interest.
Elsewhere though there is the Classic Chase Grade 3 handicap at Warwick which appeals to me as a possible money spinner. At this stage of the week I have finalised my shortlist but not made any investments as I would like to see what develops in the betting. This race does appear to have some recurring trends but it has only been a marathon trip since 2004 and has not been run in consecutive years with no records to be found regarding any 2009 or 2010 renewals. The result of this could be that I recheck my findings again before I commit to any selections and voice them on here.
There are a further three high class races on offer at Warwick which I will need to engage myself with before Saturday with the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) likely to be the most interesting of these from a betting perspective.
Plenty to look forward to so lets hope good luck stays with us for another weekend.
Tuesday, 11 January 2011
King George VI Chase (Kempton Runner's Guide)
Welcome to the Oddspundit preview and runner's guide for Saturday's much anticipated event - The King George VI Chase (Grade 1) at Kempton.
Kauto Star should prove too good for his rivals in this years renewal but how often do you see the same horse win the same race on five successive occasions? It has to be a rare occurrence and so there has to be slight doubts about the likelihood of that very outcome. This is why I suggest anyone who has a bet on the favourite treads with the utmost caution.
However on form figures Kauto Star simply cannot be beaten as he still has a lot to offer at this level but who is best equipped to remove him as the number one jumps horse in training?
These are my thoughts -
Long Run (6-1 with Ladbrokes / William Hill)
Massively hyped youngster after a very decent youthful chasing career in France prompted the Waley-Cohen's to get him racing in England. The horse has placed twice in Cheltenham events and both were decent efforts when it can be considered he is arguably a better horse on a flat track. He showed his liking for a flat layout when a cantering winner of the Grade 1 Feltham Novice's Chase at Kempton during December 2009. The time that day was impressive but still some 8.3 seconds slower than Kauto's demolition by 29 lengths of a Grade 1 field in the King George held on the same day. Long Run did only carry 11st that day which was 10lb less than Kauto Star cruised along with in his event. A year older and two races wiser since then will have improved him but whether that is enough to beat an ageing Kauto Star there would have to be some doubt. Racing to be placed I suspect.
Nacarat (11-1 with William Hill / Skybet)
Interesting runner in that he was the horse that made the biggest impression in last years renewal when attempting to take the race to Kauto Star before realising he was out of his depth and tiring out of the places in the home straight. A commendable effort and one which can definitely be rated better than the miserly 157 RPR he was given that day. Bounced back this term with a win in the Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) at Wetherby before trying to sneak in a run in the Betfair Chase (Grade 1) at Haydock where he was most likely still feeling the effects of his previous winning effort. On the plus side the race delay will have helped him recover from those exploits but at the same time this horse is now 10 and is yet to win a Grade 1 so most likely his winning chance is almost nil as he is unlikely to improve at this stage of his career. Although not one to consider for the win unless something unfortunate happens elsewhere, he is an interesting place prospect having shown high class handicap form on this course in the Racingpost Chase (Grade 3) handicap for the past two seasons - finishing 1st in 2009 and 2nd in 2010.
Forpadydeplasterer (14-1 Ladbrokes)
Always the best man and never the groom this beast of a horse who is 100% genuine but also 90% unlucky and quite frankly 10% not good enough. Ever since his gutsy win in the 2009 Arkle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) at Cheltenham (a race in which Kalahari King was very unfortunate not to win) he has been second on every occasion no matter what level or distance his race has been contested at. He simply lacks the finishing speed to win over two miles but yet when tried at 2 1/2 miles in the past, on all four occasions he has also failed to win too. Now connections are trying to work the oracle by stepping him up further but it should not improve his chances of going one better. Infact it may only result in the long sequence of 2's in his form being replaced by a slightly larger figure. Still a lovely horse and one I will always enjoy watching jump a fence.
Riverside Theatre (14-1 Various)
A seemingly interesting runner when reviewing the context of his form at shorter distances. Part owned by actor James Nesbitt this horse is a youthful 7yo and appears to be improving at a steady rate. Four visits to Kempton over trips ranging from 2m to 2m 4 1/2f and four wins is not to be laughed at but he lacks an all important Grade 1 success. He has only had four outings over the larger obstacles however and he showed his best form to date when beating a decent field when stepped up in trip for his final prep race for this contest in a Class 2 Graduation Chase at the beginning of November 2010. Trends are on the side of youngsters in this event so he commands respect and looks fairly priced - perhaps more for the forecast bet perhaps.
Planet Of Sound (16-1 Various)
A decent specimen and only just turned the age of 9 so there could well be much more to come this season. Indeed he is a previous winner of the Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup (Grade 1) so knows what it takes to win a big race over 3m. Suspicion was that the race was not quite upto the true standard of a Grade 1 but still clearly high class form regardless - especially for a first career attempt at the distance. In his favour is his high cruising speed and the form of the Phillip Hobb's stable at the moment is not to be overlooked. On the negative side he would arguably prefer some decent ground and with the constant rainfall forecast for Kempton this week the chances of that are remote. Despite the ground not quite being to his liking on Saturday he goes there with place prospects and the promise of better to come.
The Nightingale (10-1 Various)
The gambled on outsider seems to be coming into calculations on most people's forecasts as the odds continue to collapse as race day approaches. Soft ground is a must and with weather reports this week pretty much assuring a significant amount of rainfall on and before Saturday soft ground beckons. However despite him deserving respect as a Paul Nicholl's trained Grade 2 winner I am just not seeing where he can bridge the gap - not only on Kauto Star but on some of the other race principles as well. Arguably nailed on for a top five finishing position given the likely conditions but needs to improve as his Grade 2 Novice win at Kempton was against a moderate field and his Irish Grade 2 win when beating Roberty Goldback although decent enough was not exhilarating form in a race where he simply stayed better than the rest. The top-rated opponent in that race was only rated 150 meanwhile so he was entitled to win as he did. This will be a much sterner test and the ground being in his favour should not be enough for him to make a major impact in the race.
Albertas Run (33-1 William Hill)
Ran a very composed race in this event back in 2008 when runner up behind Kauto Star. However the ground that day was GOOD. Infact whenever soft is in the going description for a race he has run underpar. Ideal race conditions are 2m 4f in good ground and he will be greeted 3m on Saturday in likely soft ground. My opinion is that connections are possibly wasting their money by entering him in the race and they should perhaps be waiting for a more suitable race when the ground dries out a little later in the year. Great horse on his day but this will not be his cup of tea. Would not be surprised if he is not pulled out prior to race day. McCoy publicly ditched him in order to ride Kauto Star in this race several weeks ago. Fighting possibly to not come last if running.
Madison Du Berlais (40-1 Bet365 / William Hill)
This horse stole second place last year by not running beyond his ability and trying to keep tabs on collosol winner Kauto Star. He has often ran one or two good performances at Kempton with the best of those coming in the 2009 Levy Board Chase (Grade 2) which he won by a scintillating 23 lengths ahead of Denman. This gave him a RPR of 173 and an actual repeat of that run would have him nailed on for the runners up spot here. Likelihood of a repeat run however? Not so good. Having fallen on his last two chase outings and ran only moderately in every run since taking 2nd in last years event it is likely that Madison Du Berlais has surpassed his best years. Only a 10yo though so cannot be totally dismissed as over the hill but this is a very tough assignment to do well in if you are not running well prior to it.
Ollie Magern (200-1 Various)
Not quite sure why he has an entry in this race as he is clearly not upto the level that many of these are capable of. A decent runner in his prime but at the age of 13 he is more likely to get lapped than win this race.
....and that is that. Will I myself be having a bet on the race? Well in a year where I am ascertaining prudence is the key to success then that answer has to be no. This is simply because I feel that the only places up for grabs barring a serious incident are 2nd and 3rd. Betting on Kauto Star is not worthwhile as to gain any significant return you need to be betting large stakes and by doing that on such a short priced selection the fun aspect of the sport no longer exists. My thinking is that if you cannot enjoy one of the biggest races of the year without placing a bet then there is something wrong somewhere and only GAMCARE can help you!
I imagine that at some stage this week I will find a selection heathily priced in another event that has realistic winning hopes and not just a "chance" of making the frame.
Oddspundit prediction for the King George is as follows:
1ST - KAUTO STAR
2ND - RIVERSIDE THEATRE
3RD - LONG RUN
4TH - PLANET OF SOUND
5TH - NACARAT
Kauto Star should prove too good for his rivals in this years renewal but how often do you see the same horse win the same race on five successive occasions? It has to be a rare occurrence and so there has to be slight doubts about the likelihood of that very outcome. This is why I suggest anyone who has a bet on the favourite treads with the utmost caution.
However on form figures Kauto Star simply cannot be beaten as he still has a lot to offer at this level but who is best equipped to remove him as the number one jumps horse in training?
These are my thoughts -
Long Run (6-1 with Ladbrokes / William Hill)
Massively hyped youngster after a very decent youthful chasing career in France prompted the Waley-Cohen's to get him racing in England. The horse has placed twice in Cheltenham events and both were decent efforts when it can be considered he is arguably a better horse on a flat track. He showed his liking for a flat layout when a cantering winner of the Grade 1 Feltham Novice's Chase at Kempton during December 2009. The time that day was impressive but still some 8.3 seconds slower than Kauto's demolition by 29 lengths of a Grade 1 field in the King George held on the same day. Long Run did only carry 11st that day which was 10lb less than Kauto Star cruised along with in his event. A year older and two races wiser since then will have improved him but whether that is enough to beat an ageing Kauto Star there would have to be some doubt. Racing to be placed I suspect.
Nacarat (11-1 with William Hill / Skybet)
Interesting runner in that he was the horse that made the biggest impression in last years renewal when attempting to take the race to Kauto Star before realising he was out of his depth and tiring out of the places in the home straight. A commendable effort and one which can definitely be rated better than the miserly 157 RPR he was given that day. Bounced back this term with a win in the Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) at Wetherby before trying to sneak in a run in the Betfair Chase (Grade 1) at Haydock where he was most likely still feeling the effects of his previous winning effort. On the plus side the race delay will have helped him recover from those exploits but at the same time this horse is now 10 and is yet to win a Grade 1 so most likely his winning chance is almost nil as he is unlikely to improve at this stage of his career. Although not one to consider for the win unless something unfortunate happens elsewhere, he is an interesting place prospect having shown high class handicap form on this course in the Racingpost Chase (Grade 3) handicap for the past two seasons - finishing 1st in 2009 and 2nd in 2010.
Forpadydeplasterer (14-1 Ladbrokes)
Always the best man and never the groom this beast of a horse who is 100% genuine but also 90% unlucky and quite frankly 10% not good enough. Ever since his gutsy win in the 2009 Arkle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) at Cheltenham (a race in which Kalahari King was very unfortunate not to win) he has been second on every occasion no matter what level or distance his race has been contested at. He simply lacks the finishing speed to win over two miles but yet when tried at 2 1/2 miles in the past, on all four occasions he has also failed to win too. Now connections are trying to work the oracle by stepping him up further but it should not improve his chances of going one better. Infact it may only result in the long sequence of 2's in his form being replaced by a slightly larger figure. Still a lovely horse and one I will always enjoy watching jump a fence.
Riverside Theatre (14-1 Various)
A seemingly interesting runner when reviewing the context of his form at shorter distances. Part owned by actor James Nesbitt this horse is a youthful 7yo and appears to be improving at a steady rate. Four visits to Kempton over trips ranging from 2m to 2m 4 1/2f and four wins is not to be laughed at but he lacks an all important Grade 1 success. He has only had four outings over the larger obstacles however and he showed his best form to date when beating a decent field when stepped up in trip for his final prep race for this contest in a Class 2 Graduation Chase at the beginning of November 2010. Trends are on the side of youngsters in this event so he commands respect and looks fairly priced - perhaps more for the forecast bet perhaps.
Planet Of Sound (16-1 Various)
A decent specimen and only just turned the age of 9 so there could well be much more to come this season. Indeed he is a previous winner of the Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup (Grade 1) so knows what it takes to win a big race over 3m. Suspicion was that the race was not quite upto the true standard of a Grade 1 but still clearly high class form regardless - especially for a first career attempt at the distance. In his favour is his high cruising speed and the form of the Phillip Hobb's stable at the moment is not to be overlooked. On the negative side he would arguably prefer some decent ground and with the constant rainfall forecast for Kempton this week the chances of that are remote. Despite the ground not quite being to his liking on Saturday he goes there with place prospects and the promise of better to come.
The Nightingale (10-1 Various)
The gambled on outsider seems to be coming into calculations on most people's forecasts as the odds continue to collapse as race day approaches. Soft ground is a must and with weather reports this week pretty much assuring a significant amount of rainfall on and before Saturday soft ground beckons. However despite him deserving respect as a Paul Nicholl's trained Grade 2 winner I am just not seeing where he can bridge the gap - not only on Kauto Star but on some of the other race principles as well. Arguably nailed on for a top five finishing position given the likely conditions but needs to improve as his Grade 2 Novice win at Kempton was against a moderate field and his Irish Grade 2 win when beating Roberty Goldback although decent enough was not exhilarating form in a race where he simply stayed better than the rest. The top-rated opponent in that race was only rated 150 meanwhile so he was entitled to win as he did. This will be a much sterner test and the ground being in his favour should not be enough for him to make a major impact in the race.
Albertas Run (33-1 William Hill)
Ran a very composed race in this event back in 2008 when runner up behind Kauto Star. However the ground that day was GOOD. Infact whenever soft is in the going description for a race he has run underpar. Ideal race conditions are 2m 4f in good ground and he will be greeted 3m on Saturday in likely soft ground. My opinion is that connections are possibly wasting their money by entering him in the race and they should perhaps be waiting for a more suitable race when the ground dries out a little later in the year. Great horse on his day but this will not be his cup of tea. Would not be surprised if he is not pulled out prior to race day. McCoy publicly ditched him in order to ride Kauto Star in this race several weeks ago. Fighting possibly to not come last if running.
Madison Du Berlais (40-1 Bet365 / William Hill)
This horse stole second place last year by not running beyond his ability and trying to keep tabs on collosol winner Kauto Star. He has often ran one or two good performances at Kempton with the best of those coming in the 2009 Levy Board Chase (Grade 2) which he won by a scintillating 23 lengths ahead of Denman. This gave him a RPR of 173 and an actual repeat of that run would have him nailed on for the runners up spot here. Likelihood of a repeat run however? Not so good. Having fallen on his last two chase outings and ran only moderately in every run since taking 2nd in last years event it is likely that Madison Du Berlais has surpassed his best years. Only a 10yo though so cannot be totally dismissed as over the hill but this is a very tough assignment to do well in if you are not running well prior to it.
Ollie Magern (200-1 Various)
Not quite sure why he has an entry in this race as he is clearly not upto the level that many of these are capable of. A decent runner in his prime but at the age of 13 he is more likely to get lapped than win this race.
....and that is that. Will I myself be having a bet on the race? Well in a year where I am ascertaining prudence is the key to success then that answer has to be no. This is simply because I feel that the only places up for grabs barring a serious incident are 2nd and 3rd. Betting on Kauto Star is not worthwhile as to gain any significant return you need to be betting large stakes and by doing that on such a short priced selection the fun aspect of the sport no longer exists. My thinking is that if you cannot enjoy one of the biggest races of the year without placing a bet then there is something wrong somewhere and only GAMCARE can help you!
I imagine that at some stage this week I will find a selection heathily priced in another event that has realistic winning hopes and not just a "chance" of making the frame.
Oddspundit prediction for the King George is as follows:
1ST - KAUTO STAR
2ND - RIVERSIDE THEATRE
3RD - LONG RUN
4TH - PLANET OF SOUND
5TH - NACARAT
Sunday, 9 January 2011
Two Solid Days - About Time!
Been gagging for an upturn in fortunes for a couple of months and finally it came this weekend when arguably every selection ran according to it's merits and defied its initial odds. Today RARE BOB provided me with a very welcome winner at Leopardstown at favourable odds of between 10-1 and 12-1. He led his rivals a merry dance by leading from start to finish with some quite superb jumping. A commendable effort by the former Grade 1 winning novice chaser but not a performance to get overly excited about as his handicap mark for future events will be too high whilst at the same time he is not quite upto Graded chase company.
My other main bet of the day was The Bishop Looney in the Pertemps Qualifier and he ran with some intent and was not beaten by far when placing third. He did not have enough speed for the home straight but was clearly staying on well and there could be more to come from him so I will track him accordingly.
The only difference between this weekend and all the rest is that I have had a lot of free time by using up holiday entitlement and no hassles to sort out which has helped me concentrate on preparing my selections more wisely than on the odd occasion in the past. It is very clear that the more effort you put into your preparation of finding winners the better results you will yield. Now I need to find a way to set some time aside whilst working a 40 hour week where I can be awake and fresh enough to find the value that is on offer. It is easy to see why the regular newspaper tipsters can come good for BIG race days as all they do throughout the week is concentrate on racing and write about it. It is an easy life! One which I would enjoy doing should I ever be given that opportunity.
For now though I want to concentrate on staying emotion free and making my selections according to a horses merits, the history surrounding the race in question and the scope for value present in the odds on offer!
2011 looks exciting already....
Bring on next week!
My other main bet of the day was The Bishop Looney in the Pertemps Qualifier and he ran with some intent and was not beaten by far when placing third. He did not have enough speed for the home straight but was clearly staying on well and there could be more to come from him so I will track him accordingly.
The only difference between this weekend and all the rest is that I have had a lot of free time by using up holiday entitlement and no hassles to sort out which has helped me concentrate on preparing my selections more wisely than on the odd occasion in the past. It is very clear that the more effort you put into your preparation of finding winners the better results you will yield. Now I need to find a way to set some time aside whilst working a 40 hour week where I can be awake and fresh enough to find the value that is on offer. It is easy to see why the regular newspaper tipsters can come good for BIG race days as all they do throughout the week is concentrate on racing and write about it. It is an easy life! One which I would enjoy doing should I ever be given that opportunity.
For now though I want to concentrate on staying emotion free and making my selections according to a horses merits, the history surrounding the race in question and the scope for value present in the odds on offer!
2011 looks exciting already....
Bring on next week!
Pertemps Qualifier at Leopardstown - Preview
Warning for those reading this blog posting as I have not spent HOURS reading the form for this race. I have however still looked through a succession of past winners to get a basic guideline of what I need to be looking for and then had a quick check over this years field and their past form and capabilities.
TWO HORSES in this race ring out at me which in the past would have made me decide on just one and hope I chose the right one but halving a bet I do not see as such a bad thing anymore and therefore I am still a willing player on both selections.
Shamefully one of my selections is the favourite The Shepherd which is mediocre in creativity but his form from last time out reads very well and it could possibly be that the handicapper has failed to catch up with him as yet. Due to him being the favourite that is where my description of him ends and I may perhaps only bet on him to cover my bet on my more interesting second selection.
My second selection is The Bishop Looney who on form must have an absorbing chance of claiming the spoils after showing recent signs of coming into good form. This horse is a former Grade 3 Novice Hurdle winner and Grade 2 Novice Hurdle runner up so there is clearly some class present. The Bishop Looney runs today off a mark that is very tame as just 123 and this will be only his sixth handicap hurdle experience so he should in time clearly be capable of better than this.
His price of 12-1 is not overly big having failed to research this race last night to catch the bigger odds that were available. Support should be noted as the selection comes from a tiny stable with very limited runners. Limited to the extent that the stable has not managed a jumps winner since March 2010!
This horse though when runner up in a Novice Hurdle at Grade 2 level in 2009 split Clan Tara who won and Healy's Bar who was back in third place. The latter eventually progressed to be rated in the 140's and that can be used as supporting evidence that today's mark of 123 for The Bishop Looney is low and can be taken advantage of in the right conditions. Today I feel he has those conditions! Interesting.
Pundit Pointers:
3.00 - The Shepherd (0.5pts @ 16-5 Sportingbet)
3.00 - The Bishop Looney (1pt @ 14-1 Betfair)
TWO HORSES in this race ring out at me which in the past would have made me decide on just one and hope I chose the right one but halving a bet I do not see as such a bad thing anymore and therefore I am still a willing player on both selections.
Shamefully one of my selections is the favourite The Shepherd which is mediocre in creativity but his form from last time out reads very well and it could possibly be that the handicapper has failed to catch up with him as yet. Due to him being the favourite that is where my description of him ends and I may perhaps only bet on him to cover my bet on my more interesting second selection.
My second selection is The Bishop Looney who on form must have an absorbing chance of claiming the spoils after showing recent signs of coming into good form. This horse is a former Grade 3 Novice Hurdle winner and Grade 2 Novice Hurdle runner up so there is clearly some class present. The Bishop Looney runs today off a mark that is very tame as just 123 and this will be only his sixth handicap hurdle experience so he should in time clearly be capable of better than this.
His price of 12-1 is not overly big having failed to research this race last night to catch the bigger odds that were available. Support should be noted as the selection comes from a tiny stable with very limited runners. Limited to the extent that the stable has not managed a jumps winner since March 2010!
This horse though when runner up in a Novice Hurdle at Grade 2 level in 2009 split Clan Tara who won and Healy's Bar who was back in third place. The latter eventually progressed to be rated in the 140's and that can be used as supporting evidence that today's mark of 123 for The Bishop Looney is low and can be taken advantage of in the right conditions. Today I feel he has those conditions! Interesting.
Pundit Pointers:
3.00 - The Shepherd (0.5pts @ 16-5 Sportingbet)
3.00 - The Bishop Looney (1pt @ 14-1 Betfair)
Leopardstown Pointers and Preview
Some high class action at Leopardstown today has had me revising the form and trends quite intensely to gauge an opinion on what is value and what possible outcome there might be in the 1.50 Tote Pick Six Every Sunday Leopardstown Handicap Chase (Grade A).
It looks a tricky handicap but here are some of the more interesting research finds for the event: -
Looking through the field in full for Grade 1 or 2 form then it appears very limited with only Rare Bob, Follow The Plan and Jered offering anything noteworthy. Jered's form is not particularly bright over fences with his third placed effort in a Grade 1 Novice Chase achieved when there were just four finishers and he was 37+ lengths behind the winner Pandorama that day. On a positive note though he does have McCoy aboard him here and so cannot be dismissed readily but the likelihood is that no value will be offered on his mount.
Follow The Plan meanwhile had a race in name only during December as he fell at the first fence. This is easily no blessing in disguise and leaves him with a lack of race preparation which could well scupper his chance.
Therefore it leaves me with just Rare Bob with the Graded form to his name that has some sustaining appeal in what will be first time blinkers on this occasion. He is a former Grade 1 Chase winner so has not inherited topweight here by chance. He has found life tough at the top level since that victory but connections have seemingly found him a possible winning opportunity now and at 12-1 he rates as the decent value that will probably shorten as race time approaches.
I am keen to split my stake for this event with the lightly raced Silent Creek who ran as well as he has ever managed to when a recent unlucky third on just his fourth start over fences last time out. That came in a Grade B handicap so whilst it is short of featuring well on our trends it is boosted by the fact that the horse will carry only 10st 1lb which is a huge positive. He looked an assured jumper on his debut over fences and has taken time to come to full health after two seasons injured. It would be rewarding for connections should he prove good enough for this race and on paper he could indeed be the most interestingly handicapped runner in the whole field.
So there are my thoughts. I have this as a possible match up between a proven Grade 1 Novice Chase winner in Rare Bob and the improving Silent Creek who looks a horse who can improve on what he has shown so far to win here. Tough call and therefore splitting stakes is the safest option as I am not the greatest decision maker that has ever lived.
Good luck.
If I find more for Sunday you will be the first to know!
Pundit Pointer
12.50 - Rare Bob (0.8pts @ 10-1 with Bet365)
12.50 - Silent Creek (0.8pts @ 6-1 on Betfair)
EDIT: Sadly missed the 18-1 that was floating around on Betfair for Rare Bob. I was greedy and left a bet to be matched at 17-1 overnight which just failed to get matched and unfortunately I have been greeted with just 10-1 odds now come the next day! Disappointing but the horse is clearly quite fancied so even though he remains less value he has to have a winning chance and therefore I will remain a player!
It looks a tricky handicap but here are some of the more interesting research finds for the event: -
- In the last eleven years 9 of the 11 winners have been aged 9 or older. (6 = 9yo, 2 = 10yo, 1 = 11yo)
- The race distance was reduced to 2m 5f from 3m in 2009 and so only two previous renewals have been held at the current shorter trip.
- In the last eleven years 8 of the 11 winners had previous GRADE 1 or 2 level placed or even winning form. In 2004 and 2005 this trend was bypassed only by a placed horse and a winner in Grade A handicap company. The placed horse had managed that feat during the previous seasons Irish National. In 2006 the winner was on a four timer but his best previous effort was only to win a Grade C level handicap.
- In the last eleven years 10 of the 11 winners had raced during the previous month so a DECEMBER run is mandatory when making your selection. The only exception to this rule was in 2004 but that winner had won last time out in an expensive handicap during the last week of November. A recent run therefore looks a necessity!
Looking through the field in full for Grade 1 or 2 form then it appears very limited with only Rare Bob, Follow The Plan and Jered offering anything noteworthy. Jered's form is not particularly bright over fences with his third placed effort in a Grade 1 Novice Chase achieved when there were just four finishers and he was 37+ lengths behind the winner Pandorama that day. On a positive note though he does have McCoy aboard him here and so cannot be dismissed readily but the likelihood is that no value will be offered on his mount.
Follow The Plan meanwhile had a race in name only during December as he fell at the first fence. This is easily no blessing in disguise and leaves him with a lack of race preparation which could well scupper his chance.
Therefore it leaves me with just Rare Bob with the Graded form to his name that has some sustaining appeal in what will be first time blinkers on this occasion. He is a former Grade 1 Chase winner so has not inherited topweight here by chance. He has found life tough at the top level since that victory but connections have seemingly found him a possible winning opportunity now and at 12-1 he rates as the decent value that will probably shorten as race time approaches.
I am keen to split my stake for this event with the lightly raced Silent Creek who ran as well as he has ever managed to when a recent unlucky third on just his fourth start over fences last time out. That came in a Grade B handicap so whilst it is short of featuring well on our trends it is boosted by the fact that the horse will carry only 10st 1lb which is a huge positive. He looked an assured jumper on his debut over fences and has taken time to come to full health after two seasons injured. It would be rewarding for connections should he prove good enough for this race and on paper he could indeed be the most interestingly handicapped runner in the whole field.
So there are my thoughts. I have this as a possible match up between a proven Grade 1 Novice Chase winner in Rare Bob and the improving Silent Creek who looks a horse who can improve on what he has shown so far to win here. Tough call and therefore splitting stakes is the safest option as I am not the greatest decision maker that has ever lived.
Good luck.
If I find more for Sunday you will be the first to know!
Pundit Pointer
12.50 - Rare Bob (0.8pts @ 10-1 with Bet365)
12.50 - Silent Creek (0.8pts @ 6-1 on Betfair)
EDIT: Sadly missed the 18-1 that was floating around on Betfair for Rare Bob. I was greedy and left a bet to be matched at 17-1 overnight which just failed to get matched and unfortunately I have been greeted with just 10-1 odds now come the next day! Disappointing but the horse is clearly quite fancied so even though he remains less value he has to have a winning chance and therefore I will remain a player!
Good Start To The New Year
Two bets at Chepstow on Saturday yielded its rewards with two decent priced selections returning a win and a second place. In the Coral Welsh National interesting outsider Giles Cross just failed to lead his rivals a merry dance when caught on the home straight heading to the last fence by Synchronized. It was a great ride by young Harry Skelton to get the horse so close and it was pointed out to me afterwards that Giles Cross had reached 1.53 inrunning. Obviously that hurts as it was an awesome trading price but I had invested some funds on the place incase he did run out of puff late on so it was not a tragedy that I had not took advantage of an inrunning trade.
It is another point worth my making a note of that if I do have an invested interest in a horse I am fully aware will be front running then I should be setting a short price lay inrunning incase my selection is caught close home. Can often help make betting on front runners a free bet, but it can be slightly aggravating when the selection indeed does prove good enough to win and you have unwittingly given some winnings away.
My day of betting was brief and only consisted of one more race but it was the following Coral.co.uk Handicap Chase that proved the most fruitful event of the day. Early morning outsider Chance Du Roy confirmed the Phillip Hobbs team to be in tremendous New Year form with a win over his stablemate in a pulsating contest. At one brief stage I felt Chance Du Roy had run his race and was not quite going to be able to quicken up but as soon as the doubts were creeping in they had dispersed as the horse flew down the home straight keen not to be denied. An astonishing early 12-1 Betfair price was taken by myself and this turned out to be a wise investment as Chance Du Roy was eventually sent off at just 11-2. They KNEW but it did not take insider knowledge to know the horse had a great chance as I had stated his chance on form was "SUPERLATIVE"! Why did I therefore not invest more heavily knowing he was value? My answer is that I have no idea. Sometimes I just do not help myself but having not had much racing to bet on of late I will not be disgruntled with the morale boosting win that could set me up nicely if I can find anything of interest at Leopardstown later on Sunday.
Any update will be done before Midday if there is anything worthy of my money but as I am assuring myself of prudence in 2011 do not anticipate me parting with any further cash this weekend unless something jumps out at me like it did at Cheptstow.
It is another point worth my making a note of that if I do have an invested interest in a horse I am fully aware will be front running then I should be setting a short price lay inrunning incase my selection is caught close home. Can often help make betting on front runners a free bet, but it can be slightly aggravating when the selection indeed does prove good enough to win and you have unwittingly given some winnings away.
My day of betting was brief and only consisted of one more race but it was the following Coral.co.uk Handicap Chase that proved the most fruitful event of the day. Early morning outsider Chance Du Roy confirmed the Phillip Hobbs team to be in tremendous New Year form with a win over his stablemate in a pulsating contest. At one brief stage I felt Chance Du Roy had run his race and was not quite going to be able to quicken up but as soon as the doubts were creeping in they had dispersed as the horse flew down the home straight keen not to be denied. An astonishing early 12-1 Betfair price was taken by myself and this turned out to be a wise investment as Chance Du Roy was eventually sent off at just 11-2. They KNEW but it did not take insider knowledge to know the horse had a great chance as I had stated his chance on form was "SUPERLATIVE"! Why did I therefore not invest more heavily knowing he was value? My answer is that I have no idea. Sometimes I just do not help myself but having not had much racing to bet on of late I will not be disgruntled with the morale boosting win that could set me up nicely if I can find anything of interest at Leopardstown later on Sunday.
Any update will be done before Midday if there is anything worthy of my money but as I am assuring myself of prudence in 2011 do not anticipate me parting with any further cash this weekend unless something jumps out at me like it did at Cheptstow.
Saturday, 8 January 2011
Chepstow - Early Look - Welsh National Preview
The re-arranged Welsh National finally takes place at Chepstow later today and it looks once again a fascinating renewal with seemingly plenty of chances on paper. This type of race is massively overdue after an abject spell in the doldrums for the sport due to the recent wintry weather. When horse racing is reliant upon All Weather racing to get through December you realise just how desperate a situation it is but the break has done me good and I feel ready for 2011 in which I will be substantially more prudent with my selections.
What I have unwittingly realised is that during my racing tenure I have always been an "underdog" supporter and parted with my cash way too easily in most instances. I am going to back away from betting in the "big" events if I do not feel I have a clear value angle that I can approach the race from.
The Welsh National is a race I have been reviewing nearly all week in the run up to the event having had the pleasure of an extended Christmas break by using up all my unused holiday entitlements from work. In a way I suppose I have no excuses come race time as I have had all the time I have needed to complete my racing studies and in no way have I felt rushed or tired.
I have to admit at some point during the week I have probably fancied more than HALF of the field for the Welsh National as plenty of runners have some interesting pieces of form. I have resisted from blogging an antepost selection due to the increasing urge to have a runner for my stake! I did not feel lucky enough for an antepost bet to prevail during the final few preparation days.
A quick look at the trends of recent seasons has made me interesting in something that either well handicapped or unexposed. It is clear that low weights should be preferred with only one horse carrying MORE than 11st to victory in the last decade. Favourite backers should also be wary as not only does their fancy Synchronized carry 11st 5lb for the big event but only ONE favourite has won during the same time period. So is he value based on those statistics at 9-2? I fear not. He is however a horse I love after he won me a big pot at Haydock two seasons ago at gorgeous odds but on this occasion I hope he does not quite prevail in a race which should suit him.
Horses that did indeed make my shortlist were plentiful and Dance Island was one of the major likes on that big list initially as his second behind Burton Port last season made him look like a 144 rated horse and he runs in the Chepstow marathon off just 137. However that was not enough to convince me as this will be far different to the flat track that is Aintree and with only four previous Chase runs to his name and none in soft/heavy ground I am was not satisfied with the 9-1 price.
Of the other horses that just fell short of my final cut second favourite Maktu who did everything right bar win when just touched off on his reappearance at Haydock in November. He looks sure to improve on that this coming season but the defection of the original date that this race was due to be run means that Maktu has unfortunately gone 65 days without racing and with all ten winners in the last decade having run within 55 days it is too off putting to take a chance on what is a short price of 6-1.
One of the outsiders that interested me but just missed out on my interest were I'moncloudnine who looked perfectly placed to run a big race in the Becher's Chase at Aintree when Dougie Castello took it upon himself to jump off the horse at the Canal Turn. I may be being harsh but it was a dire end to the race for what could have been a nice result for the horse had his stamina held together. He was sitting cosily in fourth place and on the bridle when it occurred but because there was still some way left to run it is no way certain that his challenge may have prevailed and for that reason I am too much of a doubter to part with my cash. A 2010 version of me though would have perhaps had a play on this selection though due to the large odds so he could be one worth having a go on if you feel lucky.
The final horse that was going to be included in this article as one of my selections for the race was Ballyfitz. For I have just found out as I was about to write up his value chance that since 1976 and for all I know, years before that, there have been no winners older than the age of 10 which means as an 11yo Ballyfitz no matter how well handicapped he appears to be, indeed has it all to do to change that huge trend.
With all of the above in mind I come to my final decision. For those of you who are still infact reading then you will be glad to know that my selection for the race is Giles Cross. This is an unfortunate name for an improving horse as there is a murky court case going on in the Cheshire area where the defendant has the same name so this would probably not be a welcome winner for that area at least! Despite that little off topic big of news I am not put off and this mudlark of a horse can find his feet in the ground and prevail from the front under his cosy light weight of 10st 2lb. He is not a youngster by any means at the age of nine but he has been lightly raced and only seen a racecourse ELEVEN times previously. Of those runs just seven have been over fences but that is just about perfect for a potential winner of this race. On only his second start over fences he was just over four lengths behind Synchronized when doing battle off similar weights. For Saturday's big event there is a 17lb weight swing in favour of our unconsidered outsider and that could be all he needs to turn things around. Giles Cross is a frequent visitor of Chepstow and has two careers wins to his name at the track over both hurdles and fences and for those who know their racing it can be VERY useful to have tasted success at the course prior to a run in the Welsh National itself. I am abit disappointed with his reappearance run but considering the ground would have indeed been on the lively side for him I am willing to ignore it unlike many other punters as I feel his trainer has probably had this race in mind for him for the past 12 months and was not really too interested in preparing his horse too well for the Cheltenham outing. A 2lb drop in the handicap due to that below par effort is an added bonus and makes Giles Cross look the big each way appeal of what should be a fantastic race.
Of the supporting races at Chepstow there is only one other horse that will have my money tied to it. In the 2.20 coral.co.uk Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) the much in-form Phillip Hobbs team enter Chance Du Roy and on figures he has a SUPERLATIVE chance in my mind of springing a minor shock result against leading Charlie Mann and Paul Nicholl's fancies.
Chance Du Roy has only had four career outings over fences and the best of which came in the softest conditions that he has encountered at Ludlow. With conditions therefore likely to suit it is very interesting to note that a recent third placing was a good result behind Only Vintage and Regal Heights. My reasoning for this is that Only Vintage was running off a mark of 115 having been rated 135 before an injury put him out of racing for three seasons. The horse in second Regal Heights was running off a mark of 122 having been rated 150 only 14 months ago! Therefore it is a huge piece of form in my mind for him to come third behind two well handicapped horses when hindered by being the unlucky top weight in the race.
Regarding huge weights it is indeed noticeable that for his last six starts he has been saddled with weights in excess of 11st and so he will feel as though his jockey as fallen off him come Saturday when only restricted by his 10st 9lb jockey Tom O'Brien. An added bonus to this value look horse is that he is a previously course winner over fences which helps immensely and so he looks a very compelling proposition running against a field that looks only marginally above average for this Class 2 feature.
Pundit Pointers:
1.45 - Giles Cross (1pt WIN @ 17-1 Betfair)
1.45 - Giles Cross (0.6pts PLACE @ 7-2 Betfair)
2.20 - Chance Du Roy (1pt WIN @ 12-1 Betfair)
Horse also engaged at 3.30 Wincanton and looks to have a good chance if that ends up being his preferred destination. I will have to relook in the morning should this be the case.
In much need of rest now! I preferred staying up late to do my research rather than waking up early but let's hope it has proved a wise decision!
If I find any other interests in the morning a new blog post will be added before 1PM. Good luck.
What I have unwittingly realised is that during my racing tenure I have always been an "underdog" supporter and parted with my cash way too easily in most instances. I am going to back away from betting in the "big" events if I do not feel I have a clear value angle that I can approach the race from.
The Welsh National is a race I have been reviewing nearly all week in the run up to the event having had the pleasure of an extended Christmas break by using up all my unused holiday entitlements from work. In a way I suppose I have no excuses come race time as I have had all the time I have needed to complete my racing studies and in no way have I felt rushed or tired.
I have to admit at some point during the week I have probably fancied more than HALF of the field for the Welsh National as plenty of runners have some interesting pieces of form. I have resisted from blogging an antepost selection due to the increasing urge to have a runner for my stake! I did not feel lucky enough for an antepost bet to prevail during the final few preparation days.
A quick look at the trends of recent seasons has made me interesting in something that either well handicapped or unexposed. It is clear that low weights should be preferred with only one horse carrying MORE than 11st to victory in the last decade. Favourite backers should also be wary as not only does their fancy Synchronized carry 11st 5lb for the big event but only ONE favourite has won during the same time period. So is he value based on those statistics at 9-2? I fear not. He is however a horse I love after he won me a big pot at Haydock two seasons ago at gorgeous odds but on this occasion I hope he does not quite prevail in a race which should suit him.
Horses that did indeed make my shortlist were plentiful and Dance Island was one of the major likes on that big list initially as his second behind Burton Port last season made him look like a 144 rated horse and he runs in the Chepstow marathon off just 137. However that was not enough to convince me as this will be far different to the flat track that is Aintree and with only four previous Chase runs to his name and none in soft/heavy ground I am was not satisfied with the 9-1 price.
Of the other horses that just fell short of my final cut second favourite Maktu who did everything right bar win when just touched off on his reappearance at Haydock in November. He looks sure to improve on that this coming season but the defection of the original date that this race was due to be run means that Maktu has unfortunately gone 65 days without racing and with all ten winners in the last decade having run within 55 days it is too off putting to take a chance on what is a short price of 6-1.
One of the outsiders that interested me but just missed out on my interest were I'moncloudnine who looked perfectly placed to run a big race in the Becher's Chase at Aintree when Dougie Castello took it upon himself to jump off the horse at the Canal Turn. I may be being harsh but it was a dire end to the race for what could have been a nice result for the horse had his stamina held together. He was sitting cosily in fourth place and on the bridle when it occurred but because there was still some way left to run it is no way certain that his challenge may have prevailed and for that reason I am too much of a doubter to part with my cash. A 2010 version of me though would have perhaps had a play on this selection though due to the large odds so he could be one worth having a go on if you feel lucky.
The final horse that was going to be included in this article as one of my selections for the race was Ballyfitz. For I have just found out as I was about to write up his value chance that since 1976 and for all I know, years before that, there have been no winners older than the age of 10 which means as an 11yo Ballyfitz no matter how well handicapped he appears to be, indeed has it all to do to change that huge trend.
With all of the above in mind I come to my final decision. For those of you who are still infact reading then you will be glad to know that my selection for the race is Giles Cross. This is an unfortunate name for an improving horse as there is a murky court case going on in the Cheshire area where the defendant has the same name so this would probably not be a welcome winner for that area at least! Despite that little off topic big of news I am not put off and this mudlark of a horse can find his feet in the ground and prevail from the front under his cosy light weight of 10st 2lb. He is not a youngster by any means at the age of nine but he has been lightly raced and only seen a racecourse ELEVEN times previously. Of those runs just seven have been over fences but that is just about perfect for a potential winner of this race. On only his second start over fences he was just over four lengths behind Synchronized when doing battle off similar weights. For Saturday's big event there is a 17lb weight swing in favour of our unconsidered outsider and that could be all he needs to turn things around. Giles Cross is a frequent visitor of Chepstow and has two careers wins to his name at the track over both hurdles and fences and for those who know their racing it can be VERY useful to have tasted success at the course prior to a run in the Welsh National itself. I am abit disappointed with his reappearance run but considering the ground would have indeed been on the lively side for him I am willing to ignore it unlike many other punters as I feel his trainer has probably had this race in mind for him for the past 12 months and was not really too interested in preparing his horse too well for the Cheltenham outing. A 2lb drop in the handicap due to that below par effort is an added bonus and makes Giles Cross look the big each way appeal of what should be a fantastic race.
Of the supporting races at Chepstow there is only one other horse that will have my money tied to it. In the 2.20 coral.co.uk Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) the much in-form Phillip Hobbs team enter Chance Du Roy and on figures he has a SUPERLATIVE chance in my mind of springing a minor shock result against leading Charlie Mann and Paul Nicholl's fancies.
Chance Du Roy has only had four career outings over fences and the best of which came in the softest conditions that he has encountered at Ludlow. With conditions therefore likely to suit it is very interesting to note that a recent third placing was a good result behind Only Vintage and Regal Heights. My reasoning for this is that Only Vintage was running off a mark of 115 having been rated 135 before an injury put him out of racing for three seasons. The horse in second Regal Heights was running off a mark of 122 having been rated 150 only 14 months ago! Therefore it is a huge piece of form in my mind for him to come third behind two well handicapped horses when hindered by being the unlucky top weight in the race.
Regarding huge weights it is indeed noticeable that for his last six starts he has been saddled with weights in excess of 11st and so he will feel as though his jockey as fallen off him come Saturday when only restricted by his 10st 9lb jockey Tom O'Brien. An added bonus to this value look horse is that he is a previously course winner over fences which helps immensely and so he looks a very compelling proposition running against a field that looks only marginally above average for this Class 2 feature.
Pundit Pointers:
1.45 - Giles Cross (1pt WIN @ 17-1 Betfair)
1.45 - Giles Cross (0.6pts PLACE @ 7-2 Betfair)
2.20 - Chance Du Roy (1pt WIN @ 12-1 Betfair)
Horse also engaged at 3.30 Wincanton and looks to have a good chance if that ends up being his preferred destination. I will have to relook in the morning should this be the case.
In much need of rest now! I preferred staying up late to do my research rather than waking up early but let's hope it has proved a wise decision!
If I find any other interests in the morning a new blog post will be added before 1PM. Good luck.
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