Kempton today beat the frost, I just do not know how they do it week after week - oh yes, it is because it is not grass, that's it. The All Weather card today admittedly is uninspiring but amongst the donkey racing there is one comparatively decent event being run with the 4.50 Office Christmas Parties At Kempton Park Handicap (CLASS 3) race drawing me towards it for a bet.
I was formerly a lover of All Weather racing but it tends to be abit repetitive for my liking and I drifted away from it over time. However with the cancellation of the fantastic Fairyhouse card in Ireland it has left the racing calendar on Sunday pretty empty with Kempton being the sole survivor.
This Class 3 race has 11 runners going to post and historical trends are non-existent. Not the greatest starting point for someone who enjoys a good read over the history of a race no matter what standard it is. Straight onto my second step then - searching for the value.
FUNDAY is a competitive filly and a full sister to jumps specialist Pigeon Island. On a mark of 82 there is definitely room for improvement based on her 2009 form. Funday has clearly not been at her very best in her most two recent outings having been off the course for almost twelve months prior to that. However I feel she has been too readily dismissed on the back of her most recent run which was only her second start back and a very hot Listed contest. Having only had nine career starts Funday is far from exposed and potentially better than her current rating of 82 so her odds of 16-1 which William Hill are generously dishing out offer decent value.
Given a perfect starting birth near the rail in stall 11 Funday will be allowed to track the pace and get into what I hope is a decent early position ready for a rallying cry down the home straight. The main opposition is likely to come from Spensley who has found a track that suits him with his two recent wins coming over C&D. They were however low grade affairs and he has risen in the handicap from 68 to 80 as a result. A bigger concern could be the fact he comes with a late run and at shallow 9-4 odds it takes a brave man to bet on a horse that will require no traffic problems to win. The best jockey in Kieren Fallon is on board so the job is far from insurmountable but not a price that over excites me this one.
The other possible interesting runner is the youngster in the field Iron Condor. This improving sort loves Kempton with two wins and a second to his name in just three outings at the track. They have all come in very low grade same age group races and despite the nice racing weight given here he will need to step up on those efforts in this better company. Stall two is hardly inspiring but should not hinder the horse as he again is one that likes to be held up for a late run.
Due to it taking me so long to write this in my drunken stupor William Hill have withdrawn their 16-1 offer so the best now available is all over the place at 14-1. It is a minor setback but still a great price about what I realistically feel should be no bigger than 10-1. Hopefully Funday will act on the surface and make it a happy Sunday after all as I retract to my bed for some much needed recovery.
Pundit Pointer:
4.50 - Funday (1pt WIN @ 14-1 various)
I have also covered with a place bet but the odds I got on at were 4.2 and this has disappeared quicker than a dropped twenty pound note so I will not be advising a place bet as the value has gone. Do what you feel is best!
Sunday, 28 November 2010
Knocking On The Door
It did not quite happen on Saturday with my main selection for the day Burton's Port only managing second place in the Hennessy Gold Cup behind the superlative Diamond Harry but ahead of the colossus that is Denman who was third.
I have to comment that I was thoroughly impressed with Diamond Harry who overcame just three previous chase runs to confirm his superiority over Burton Port who run a huge race himself with just one damaging mistake at the cross fence.
It was easily the best Hennessy Gold Cup for many a year and the first three home confirmed themselves to be possibly something special.
I would encourage connections of Burton Port to forget Cheltenham and go for the Grand National on the back of this race but they will do what they see fit. Burton Port looks like he could run all day and would be a fantastic sight over the Grand National fences if given the chance. His handicap mark could be the stumbling block as his rating will be 160+ by April. Shame.
I am going to sober up over the next coupld of hours but I might try my luck on the All Weather at Kempton for their 4.50 race later on which looks quite interesting. It has been over a year since my last All Weather bet but back when I was learning the game of horse racing I found it to be the format that yielded me a higher winning strike rate somehow. Glorious to watch it may not be but it can be rewarding if form is revised in full.
Check back at about 1PM for my thoughts on the race.
I have to comment that I was thoroughly impressed with Diamond Harry who overcame just three previous chase runs to confirm his superiority over Burton Port who run a huge race himself with just one damaging mistake at the cross fence.
It was easily the best Hennessy Gold Cup for many a year and the first three home confirmed themselves to be possibly something special.
I would encourage connections of Burton Port to forget Cheltenham and go for the Grand National on the back of this race but they will do what they see fit. Burton Port looks like he could run all day and would be a fantastic sight over the Grand National fences if given the chance. His handicap mark could be the stumbling block as his rating will be 160+ by April. Shame.
I am going to sober up over the next coupld of hours but I might try my luck on the All Weather at Kempton for their 4.50 race later on which looks quite interesting. It has been over a year since my last All Weather bet but back when I was learning the game of horse racing I found it to be the format that yielded me a higher winning strike rate somehow. Glorious to watch it may not be but it can be rewarding if form is revised in full.
Check back at about 1PM for my thoughts on the race.
Saturday, 27 November 2010
Saturday - Newbury Preview (Hennessy Gold Cup)
Not getting heavily involved today as difficult to gauge my honest opinion of the races involving some of my Totetentofollow selections. On a typical day I would probably be opposing Binocular at EVENS considering he is never tuned up first time out to the maximum. That means Starluck has a nice chance of being better on the day and Peddlers Cross and Nearby have proven to be no mugs either so I will keep away and hope Binocular can prove me wrong to win for the Oddspundit Lucky Line!
My first interest is only moderate and comes in the 2.00 Sportingbet.com Intermediate Hurdle. This is a listed handicap and several decent types are in the line up and none more so than Stormy Weather who can improve this season on last years above average form. The Howard Johnson yard is flying at the moment and Brian Hughes is proving himself on a regular basis now to be a top jockey. The horse itself loves cut in the ground but generally goes well on all types and was fifth in last seasons Fred Winter at Cheltenham. I feel the handicap mark given of just 125 can easily be proven to be an anomaly and he can beat the more fancied Tocco Ferro and The Betchworth Kid in receipt of some weight.
The Long Distance Hurdle that follows at 2.30 needs no write up as Big Bucks is running and if anywhere near 70% fit he wins well. A great horse and another runner for the Oddspundit Tentofollow line courtesy of blog reader Reg. I just do not know how he picks them!! ha ha. A race that I hope I will enjoy viewing a recording of after I get back from a visit to Bury FC to watch the FA Cup second round in action.
The big race is the Hennessy Gold Cup at 3.05 in which looks one of the best possible renewals for quite some time. Denman is once again entered for his favourite race but looks to have an unquestionably difficult task at these weights to pull off the oracle considering that he is slowly regressing from his previous top form. I do not think for one second that Mr Harry Findlay would have sold his shares at all in this horse had he still thought it was top dog. I do not care what his argument was with Paul Nicholl's and the BHA, if you had ownership of the best horse you would not get rid. In anycase the professional punters have come out this morning and laid him for fun on the exchanges and his odds would appear to be value now at 13-2 if betting each way. Alarming drifts never encourage me though so I will opt out on this occasion.
Historically horses with experience in general have found this tougher (Denman excluded) as newly established high class chasers in the making tackle this race when young whilst their handicap marks are still rising. The record of 6 and 7yo's is pretty impressive and eight amongst that age group have won in the last decade.
The noticeable statistic based on trends if that ideally you want to be on a horse who has shown solid form but has had 4 to 6 previous chase runs. This is where Pandorama my Totetentofollow selection fails as he has only jumped the larger obstacles on three previous occasions. There is some argument though to suggest that with two of those being Grade 1 Novice contests do they not count for more than just a run of the mill Novice? Possibly so.
Diamond Harry is another with just three previous chase runs to his name and the worry with him is the lack of opposition he has faced. Twice he has won but it was in tiny fields of just three and four and when he did come up against a high quality field he failed to finish. Concerned indeed I feel you should be if you have backed him based on these supporting facts.
Where else can we look for the winner? Weird Al has always looked decent and his recent run has been franked as potentially top class form. I would be worried for Weird Al if he was to become the new favourite with Denman on the drift as they have a very lacklustre record in the race.
The horse that disappointingly for myself fits all the trends and encoursages me most as with regards to a bet is Burton Port. He will have learned alot from last year despite shining as a potential leading light when victorious on no less than four occasions from his five outings over fences. He jumped a pretty average race around Cheltenham hitting fences for fun but still managed an encouraging second in a decent Group 1 contest won by Weapon's Amnesty. Lets not forget that he finished ahead of Long Run who was third and was supposedly a handicap GOOD THING in the Paddypower a few weeks ago when rated 158 so lets not forget that Burton Port who finished ahead of him is still only rated 152! He is 4lbs out of the handicap proper but is more like a 160 rated horse so in theory on my book he is well in here and a nice price too.
I would not dismiss Pandorama's chances lightly as the line of Oddspundit that Reg and myself created has been firing winners left right and centre. We have managed no less than 4 winners so far and another one popped in on Thursday to make it five (though that victory will not count as it was only a small event). Noel Meade is pretty optimistic about that ones chance but he has to prove himself against the best of British in this race and with an absence of just under a year to overcome with some well documented setbacks I am not sure enough that he will finish infront. I will still be having a bet on him though as I feel the 9-1 on offer is too good for a dual Grade 1 Novice winner in a Grade 3 handicap.
Enjoy your betting. Wish Bury FC all the luck in the world for me today should we indeed have a winner!
Pundit Pointers:
2.00 - Stormy Weather (0.5PTS @ 7-1 Bet365)
3.05 - Burton Port (1PT @ 8-1 Bet365)
3.05 - Pandorama (0.5PTS @ 9-1 Bet365)
Click on the link to the right if you do not have an account with BET365. Remember that should any of the selections win today then you will be entitled to a free bet in the next televised race. Good luck with those if you have one!
My first interest is only moderate and comes in the 2.00 Sportingbet.com Intermediate Hurdle. This is a listed handicap and several decent types are in the line up and none more so than Stormy Weather who can improve this season on last years above average form. The Howard Johnson yard is flying at the moment and Brian Hughes is proving himself on a regular basis now to be a top jockey. The horse itself loves cut in the ground but generally goes well on all types and was fifth in last seasons Fred Winter at Cheltenham. I feel the handicap mark given of just 125 can easily be proven to be an anomaly and he can beat the more fancied Tocco Ferro and The Betchworth Kid in receipt of some weight.
The Long Distance Hurdle that follows at 2.30 needs no write up as Big Bucks is running and if anywhere near 70% fit he wins well. A great horse and another runner for the Oddspundit Tentofollow line courtesy of blog reader Reg. I just do not know how he picks them!! ha ha. A race that I hope I will enjoy viewing a recording of after I get back from a visit to Bury FC to watch the FA Cup second round in action.
The big race is the Hennessy Gold Cup at 3.05 in which looks one of the best possible renewals for quite some time. Denman is once again entered for his favourite race but looks to have an unquestionably difficult task at these weights to pull off the oracle considering that he is slowly regressing from his previous top form. I do not think for one second that Mr Harry Findlay would have sold his shares at all in this horse had he still thought it was top dog. I do not care what his argument was with Paul Nicholl's and the BHA, if you had ownership of the best horse you would not get rid. In anycase the professional punters have come out this morning and laid him for fun on the exchanges and his odds would appear to be value now at 13-2 if betting each way. Alarming drifts never encourage me though so I will opt out on this occasion.
Historically horses with experience in general have found this tougher (Denman excluded) as newly established high class chasers in the making tackle this race when young whilst their handicap marks are still rising. The record of 6 and 7yo's is pretty impressive and eight amongst that age group have won in the last decade.
The noticeable statistic based on trends if that ideally you want to be on a horse who has shown solid form but has had 4 to 6 previous chase runs. This is where Pandorama my Totetentofollow selection fails as he has only jumped the larger obstacles on three previous occasions. There is some argument though to suggest that with two of those being Grade 1 Novice contests do they not count for more than just a run of the mill Novice? Possibly so.
Diamond Harry is another with just three previous chase runs to his name and the worry with him is the lack of opposition he has faced. Twice he has won but it was in tiny fields of just three and four and when he did come up against a high quality field he failed to finish. Concerned indeed I feel you should be if you have backed him based on these supporting facts.
Where else can we look for the winner? Weird Al has always looked decent and his recent run has been franked as potentially top class form. I would be worried for Weird Al if he was to become the new favourite with Denman on the drift as they have a very lacklustre record in the race.
The horse that disappointingly for myself fits all the trends and encoursages me most as with regards to a bet is Burton Port. He will have learned alot from last year despite shining as a potential leading light when victorious on no less than four occasions from his five outings over fences. He jumped a pretty average race around Cheltenham hitting fences for fun but still managed an encouraging second in a decent Group 1 contest won by Weapon's Amnesty. Lets not forget that he finished ahead of Long Run who was third and was supposedly a handicap GOOD THING in the Paddypower a few weeks ago when rated 158 so lets not forget that Burton Port who finished ahead of him is still only rated 152! He is 4lbs out of the handicap proper but is more like a 160 rated horse so in theory on my book he is well in here and a nice price too.
I would not dismiss Pandorama's chances lightly as the line of Oddspundit that Reg and myself created has been firing winners left right and centre. We have managed no less than 4 winners so far and another one popped in on Thursday to make it five (though that victory will not count as it was only a small event). Noel Meade is pretty optimistic about that ones chance but he has to prove himself against the best of British in this race and with an absence of just under a year to overcome with some well documented setbacks I am not sure enough that he will finish infront. I will still be having a bet on him though as I feel the 9-1 on offer is too good for a dual Grade 1 Novice winner in a Grade 3 handicap.
Enjoy your betting. Wish Bury FC all the luck in the world for me today should we indeed have a winner!
Pundit Pointers:
2.00 - Stormy Weather (0.5PTS @ 7-1 Bet365)
3.05 - Burton Port (1PT @ 8-1 Bet365)
3.05 - Pandorama (0.5PTS @ 9-1 Bet365)
Click on the link to the right if you do not have an account with BET365. Remember that should any of the selections win today then you will be entitled to a free bet in the next televised race. Good luck with those if you have one!
Friday, 26 November 2010
Fighting Fifth Switched
I have woke up to excellent news this morning as the quest to reach the top 10 in the totetentofollow competition marches on. The Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) appeared likely to be cancelled on Saturday due to the snow that has made Newcastle unraceable. I felt that without Binocular racing that Oddspundit's chances of climbing the leaderboard this weekened from 108th would have been hampered dramatically but now the race is to be run at Newbury on a bumper card alongside the Hennessy Gold Cup (Grade 1) in which Pandorama bids to dispel a lack of experience and win a top class renewal.
Further great news was added this morning when I woke up to Mostly Bob who is todays ONLY tip being backed in from last nights 8-1 to just 6-1 and even 9-2 with Boylesports for the 1.35 Newbury contest.
Interesting.
Further great news was added this morning when I woke up to Mostly Bob who is todays ONLY tip being backed in from last nights 8-1 to just 6-1 and even 9-2 with Boylesports for the 1.35 Newbury contest.
Interesting.
Mostly Bob - Newbury on Friday
The title is not in detriment to Newbury or to the colossal mess that my betting normally is in but indeed to the interest that I have in a horse called MOSTLY BOB who runs in the sportingbet.com Handicap Hurdle at 1.35 today.
Trainer Phillip Hobbs has a decent record in the race having trained winners for the contest in both 2007 and 2008. He saddles two runners today and whilst one looks obtrusively handicapped based on form previously shown Mostly Bob looks relatively useful and well weighted for a winning challenge.
This is a race that has my recent Haydock outsider tip Barafundle making a quick reappearance in. Connections of Barafundle were forced to act quickly to avoid a further 7lb penalty which will kick in after this event but despite their rush to get their horse out racing again this race is far from ideal compared to last Saturday. Fixed Brush hurdles on Saturday were just what I felt the horse needed as he was clearly a horse with a chasing future. To me reverting back to the small hurdles is a backward step and not one which will improve him and a strong performance cannot be assured as it was only six days ago he was running in the softish ground around Haydock. That was a pretty strong and fast paced affair and Barafundle would need a bit more recovery time in an ideal world.
With doubts about backing Barafundle at the short odds on offer it was easy to come to the conclusion that the value lay with Mostly Bob. Phillip Hobbs had openly stated pre race last time that the horse would probably not be ready to do himself justice and despite this warning he was favourite? Madness. He ran well for the most part of the race but lacked the fitness to challenge in the home straight having looked to have prospects of winning rounding the home turn as he made stealthy headway from the back of the pack.
With that run under his belt and time since to improve on his fitness he should be in far better condition to propel himself up the handicap ladder having had his rating reduced by 3lb following that most recent run. People backing Mostly Bob last time will be timid of repeating the trick but this longer trip and mildly softer ground can play to his strengths and this pretty adept hurdler can improve on the decent form he showed last season. He looks to have an interesting chance.
A chance is perhaps all it is but I think it is a good one!
I just hope he is Mostly Bob in name only and not in his performance.
Pundit Pointer:
1.35 - Mostly Bob (1.5pts @ 8-1 with William Hill and Paddypower)
Even though Mostly Bob rarely clips a hurdle it could be worth me pointing out that SPORTINGBET on Friday and Saturday for racing at Newbury will refund ALL WIN bets if your selection falls! Very fair play I feel by the meetings sponsor.
Trainer Phillip Hobbs has a decent record in the race having trained winners for the contest in both 2007 and 2008. He saddles two runners today and whilst one looks obtrusively handicapped based on form previously shown Mostly Bob looks relatively useful and well weighted for a winning challenge.
This is a race that has my recent Haydock outsider tip Barafundle making a quick reappearance in. Connections of Barafundle were forced to act quickly to avoid a further 7lb penalty which will kick in after this event but despite their rush to get their horse out racing again this race is far from ideal compared to last Saturday. Fixed Brush hurdles on Saturday were just what I felt the horse needed as he was clearly a horse with a chasing future. To me reverting back to the small hurdles is a backward step and not one which will improve him and a strong performance cannot be assured as it was only six days ago he was running in the softish ground around Haydock. That was a pretty strong and fast paced affair and Barafundle would need a bit more recovery time in an ideal world.
With doubts about backing Barafundle at the short odds on offer it was easy to come to the conclusion that the value lay with Mostly Bob. Phillip Hobbs had openly stated pre race last time that the horse would probably not be ready to do himself justice and despite this warning he was favourite? Madness. He ran well for the most part of the race but lacked the fitness to challenge in the home straight having looked to have prospects of winning rounding the home turn as he made stealthy headway from the back of the pack.
With that run under his belt and time since to improve on his fitness he should be in far better condition to propel himself up the handicap ladder having had his rating reduced by 3lb following that most recent run. People backing Mostly Bob last time will be timid of repeating the trick but this longer trip and mildly softer ground can play to his strengths and this pretty adept hurdler can improve on the decent form he showed last season. He looks to have an interesting chance.
A chance is perhaps all it is but I think it is a good one!
I just hope he is Mostly Bob in name only and not in his performance.
Pundit Pointer:
1.35 - Mostly Bob (1.5pts @ 8-1 with William Hill and Paddypower)
Even though Mostly Bob rarely clips a hurdle it could be worth me pointing out that SPORTINGBET on Friday and Saturday for racing at Newbury will refund ALL WIN bets if your selection falls! Very fair play I feel by the meetings sponsor.
Monday, 22 November 2010
Totetentofollow Leaderboard
Earlier this month Oddspundit entered the Totetentofollow competition for an attempt at winning big! Blog reader Reg supplied me with five bankers of his own for the event and I added my unorthodox five to the equation in the hope we would challenge.
Currently we sit JOINT 108th out of thousands and thousands of syndicate entries with our measly one joint line.
To date out of our initial ten line up five have ran and FOUR have won. Menorah, Master Minded, Imperial Commander and Solwhit have romped home in BIG Graded events with only Mad Max letting the side down with his 4th place in the Paddypower Gold Cup.
This weekend will see Pandorama try and carry on the winning thread of our entry and who would bet against the 8-1 shot prevailing in the Hennessy? Also we have the likely run of Binocular engaged in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle and should BOTH prevail we could be sitting pretty this time next week amongst the early pacesetters.
Interesting........
Unfortunately I did not realise a team name was required and instead just provided the tote with my own details. Thus on the results page the Oddspundit entry reads as 'M Charlton'.
It is indeed a missed advertising opportunity should the blog entry reach the TOP 20 at any stage. Nevermind!
edit: Solwhit also runs on Sunday in the Hatton Grace Hurdle (Grade One) which makes it THREE runners scheduled to go to post this weekend and should all three win their Graded contests then we could be VERY near the top come the end of the month.
Prior to the weekend there is also a chance that Finian's Rainbow could run on Friday at Newbury in a Grade 2 Novice Chase. Could there be four winners? The frost at Newcastle could jeopardise all hopes of taking the prize for most points scored in November as it would mean Binocular fails to get a run.
Second edit: I accidently forgot that Big Bucks was also starring this weekend in the Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) but in theory with him being in EVERYONE'S tentofollow should he win it will make no difference to the overall position.
Currently we sit JOINT 108th out of thousands and thousands of syndicate entries with our measly one joint line.
To date out of our initial ten line up five have ran and FOUR have won. Menorah, Master Minded, Imperial Commander and Solwhit have romped home in BIG Graded events with only Mad Max letting the side down with his 4th place in the Paddypower Gold Cup.
This weekend will see Pandorama try and carry on the winning thread of our entry and who would bet against the 8-1 shot prevailing in the Hennessy? Also we have the likely run of Binocular engaged in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle and should BOTH prevail we could be sitting pretty this time next week amongst the early pacesetters.
Interesting........
Unfortunately I did not realise a team name was required and instead just provided the tote with my own details. Thus on the results page the Oddspundit entry reads as 'M Charlton'.
It is indeed a missed advertising opportunity should the blog entry reach the TOP 20 at any stage. Nevermind!
edit: Solwhit also runs on Sunday in the Hatton Grace Hurdle (Grade One) which makes it THREE runners scheduled to go to post this weekend and should all three win their Graded contests then we could be VERY near the top come the end of the month.
Prior to the weekend there is also a chance that Finian's Rainbow could run on Friday at Newbury in a Grade 2 Novice Chase. Could there be four winners? The frost at Newcastle could jeopardise all hopes of taking the prize for most points scored in November as it would mean Binocular fails to get a run.
Second edit: I accidently forgot that Big Bucks was also starring this weekend in the Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) but in theory with him being in EVERYONE'S tentofollow should he win it will make no difference to the overall position.
Sunday, 21 November 2010
Becher Chase Day - Aintree Preview
The final North West Masters meeting ends at Aintree today following on from yesterdays exertions at Haydock with the main feature event being the Becher Chase. Supporting races are not of premium quality but there are two televised offerings on BBC2 which include the Grand Sefton Chase which often is exciting as a spectacle as well.
Yesterday brought about a few winning bets which has me hoping now that the season has finally started in earnest and I can build on the mild success. With confidence though I seem to get inventive and that is not always the best way forward when betting though it makes me not afraid to back the big prices which arguably someone is less prone to do when on a losing run.
The televised races begin at 12.35 today but my first target is to sort out the winner of the Becher Chase at 1.45 before casting my view over the supporting affairs.
The issue I feel surrounding todays events is not precisely which horse is the best handicapped but more so which horse will be able to jump the large fences most fluently in the soft and sticky ground. Obviously it requires the selection of a horse who is not harshly handicapped as well but not one that is too young and prone to the odd error. Aintree will dispose of you if you bring jumping errors to the table and it is why in general seven year olds do not have the greatest record around the giant Aintree fences.
Some of todays main players are aged seven having said that with the well thought of Meanus Dandy and Gullible Gordon prominent in the market for trainer Paul Nicholl's. Both their recent runs have been wins at Wincanton over staying trips and they appear as racers with a future. On their running I feel Gullible Gordon is perhaps the better handicapped of the two for this event but this will be a vastly different test with softer ground and bigger fences likely to reduce their speedy approach.
Notre Pere is an interesting contender whose presence means that several of this field do not enter the race of their supposed correct Official Ratings. He is only rated 151 and will have the soft ground that he craves but whether he has enough speed in ground that is arguably not quite soft enough is the concern. Also the obvious fact that he has not shown a great deal of form for well over a year now and it becomes hard to imagine that the Aintree fences will bring about a turn in fortunes for the former Grade 1 winner. If Notre Pere can spring back to life in this then he looks attractively rated at just 151 and will be a huge danger despite his big weight. It beggars belief that at this time last year Notre Pere was challenging Kauto Star for favouritism in the Grade 1 Betfair Chase at Haydock. I laughed that day at the inept betting habits of the public as he was never ever going to be in the same league even if they had to paddle around in mud to finish first!
It appears hard to narrow it down to one definitive selection for this race with so many appearing to have claims. It is noticeable that those up with the pace generally have a better record over those that are tried to be held up for a late rally. This is due to the lack of trouble that runners can face inrunning with less fallen horses presumably hindering any progress of those amongst the lead.
Merigo is a notable runner but does appear to take time to get readied for a campaign with all his career wins previously having been between February and April. Connections will be hoping he can add this race to his Eidur Chase and Scottish National wins however as they plan their season in the hope of making the line up for the Grand National in Spring. I am not convinced that this will be for him at this stage of the season.
I am not overly keen in all truth with any runner as I feel they all have something to prove. It would appear on the surface to lack the quality of recent renewals and it is with that idea I am willing to gamble on the inconsistent NEWMAN DES PLAGES being in the mix come the end of the race.
Formerly a decent chaser in his native France and able to win several Listed handicap chases in his younger days. Brought over to England he was clearly not the same horse initially when tried over hurdles. Having only had eight starts in England over fences he has managed two victories with both of them being in Carlisle races which admittedly is totally different to the test of Aintree. It is though apparent that stamina and a liking for soft ground that would give him a chance at winning this contest from a lowly 10st weight that he is due to carry.
There is only a limited time before racing does indeed start so I will end my betting weekend by taking a chance on the improving El Maintenant in the opening totepool Grand Sefton Handicap Chase at 12.35. He showed a good level of ability when last appearing and the jockey change of Campbell Gilles replacing Peter Buchanen is a massive positive as his strike rate is far greater than his colleagues which would suggest he is the more talented rider or at least the better rider in a finish!
Bet365 offer a solid 16-1 about his chance of victory and with that including a free bet offer should he be successful then it is too tempting to turn down.
Back any single winner at 4/1 or more on a bet365 Feature Race and you can have a free bet to the same stake on the next bet365 Feature Race. If your free bet also wins at odds of 4/1 or more, you qualify for a free bet on the next bet365 Feature Race. Keep backing those winners and bet365 will keep giving you free bets! This offer is available with bet365 on two races per day when there is no scheduled live Channel 4 racing and now on every race live on the BBC!
Pundit Pointers:
12.35 - El Maintenant (0.5pts @ 16-1 Bet365)
1.45 - Newman Des Plages (0.5pts @ 19-1 Betfair)
If the 12.35 runner should prove to be a winner then I will have a quick look at the form for the hurdles contest at 1.10 and hope to double up on winnings with my free bet token from Bet365.
Yesterday brought about a few winning bets which has me hoping now that the season has finally started in earnest and I can build on the mild success. With confidence though I seem to get inventive and that is not always the best way forward when betting though it makes me not afraid to back the big prices which arguably someone is less prone to do when on a losing run.
The televised races begin at 12.35 today but my first target is to sort out the winner of the Becher Chase at 1.45 before casting my view over the supporting affairs.
The issue I feel surrounding todays events is not precisely which horse is the best handicapped but more so which horse will be able to jump the large fences most fluently in the soft and sticky ground. Obviously it requires the selection of a horse who is not harshly handicapped as well but not one that is too young and prone to the odd error. Aintree will dispose of you if you bring jumping errors to the table and it is why in general seven year olds do not have the greatest record around the giant Aintree fences.
Some of todays main players are aged seven having said that with the well thought of Meanus Dandy and Gullible Gordon prominent in the market for trainer Paul Nicholl's. Both their recent runs have been wins at Wincanton over staying trips and they appear as racers with a future. On their running I feel Gullible Gordon is perhaps the better handicapped of the two for this event but this will be a vastly different test with softer ground and bigger fences likely to reduce their speedy approach.
Notre Pere is an interesting contender whose presence means that several of this field do not enter the race of their supposed correct Official Ratings. He is only rated 151 and will have the soft ground that he craves but whether he has enough speed in ground that is arguably not quite soft enough is the concern. Also the obvious fact that he has not shown a great deal of form for well over a year now and it becomes hard to imagine that the Aintree fences will bring about a turn in fortunes for the former Grade 1 winner. If Notre Pere can spring back to life in this then he looks attractively rated at just 151 and will be a huge danger despite his big weight. It beggars belief that at this time last year Notre Pere was challenging Kauto Star for favouritism in the Grade 1 Betfair Chase at Haydock. I laughed that day at the inept betting habits of the public as he was never ever going to be in the same league even if they had to paddle around in mud to finish first!
It appears hard to narrow it down to one definitive selection for this race with so many appearing to have claims. It is noticeable that those up with the pace generally have a better record over those that are tried to be held up for a late rally. This is due to the lack of trouble that runners can face inrunning with less fallen horses presumably hindering any progress of those amongst the lead.
Merigo is a notable runner but does appear to take time to get readied for a campaign with all his career wins previously having been between February and April. Connections will be hoping he can add this race to his Eidur Chase and Scottish National wins however as they plan their season in the hope of making the line up for the Grand National in Spring. I am not convinced that this will be for him at this stage of the season.
I am not overly keen in all truth with any runner as I feel they all have something to prove. It would appear on the surface to lack the quality of recent renewals and it is with that idea I am willing to gamble on the inconsistent NEWMAN DES PLAGES being in the mix come the end of the race.
Formerly a decent chaser in his native France and able to win several Listed handicap chases in his younger days. Brought over to England he was clearly not the same horse initially when tried over hurdles. Having only had eight starts in England over fences he has managed two victories with both of them being in Carlisle races which admittedly is totally different to the test of Aintree. It is though apparent that stamina and a liking for soft ground that would give him a chance at winning this contest from a lowly 10st weight that he is due to carry.
There is only a limited time before racing does indeed start so I will end my betting weekend by taking a chance on the improving El Maintenant in the opening totepool Grand Sefton Handicap Chase at 12.35. He showed a good level of ability when last appearing and the jockey change of Campbell Gilles replacing Peter Buchanen is a massive positive as his strike rate is far greater than his colleagues which would suggest he is the more talented rider or at least the better rider in a finish!
Bet365 offer a solid 16-1 about his chance of victory and with that including a free bet offer should he be successful then it is too tempting to turn down.
Back any single winner at 4/1 or more on a bet365 Feature Race and you can have a free bet to the same stake on the next bet365 Feature Race. If your free bet also wins at odds of 4/1 or more, you qualify for a free bet on the next bet365 Feature Race. Keep backing those winners and bet365 will keep giving you free bets! This offer is available with bet365 on two races per day when there is no scheduled live Channel 4 racing and now on every race live on the BBC!
Pundit Pointers:
12.35 - El Maintenant (0.5pts @ 16-1 Bet365)
1.45 - Newman Des Plages (0.5pts @ 19-1 Betfair)
If the 12.35 runner should prove to be a winner then I will have a quick look at the form for the hurdles contest at 1.10 and hope to double up on winnings with my free bet token from Bet365.
Saturday, 20 November 2010
Better Than I Expected - Haydock Review
After finalising my form analysis and write up this morning I noticed an unread message on my mobile from my mate Keith who was supposedly coming to Haydock with me for a fine afternoon of profitable betting. He had texted me to let me know that he had contracted gonorrhea and was in such shock that he could not leave the house. Typical of him to contract an STD when I am in need of winners! Some people have literally no consideration for others sometimes.
After a vast text around to people that I still consider acquaintences that I speak to, no one else was able to replace STD Keith so I had to get to Haydock by myself as I had already paid for the tickets and was not losing my money before a bet had even been placed!
Once at Haydock I collected my tickets before proceeding to register myself as the latest filthy ticket tout to land himself in the car park. "Anyone want a ticket? STD Keith has let me down and I need to sell!" In the end as I had only paid £15 for the ticket due to using the Betfair link I promoted earlier this week I accepted £10 and will send a legal letter of intent to STD Keith before the week is out for the remaining £5.
I made sure I only got to the course as the first race was ending as I have no interest in these race day openers that are only worthy enough to be rated as going stick finders.
The next race I had chosen to bet on Gringo which was to turn out to be the low light of my day as he simply could not jump. Try as he may he was just rubbish and the jockey quickly gave him an easy time of it realising there was simply no point in wasting his energy when there are other races for him later on in the year. Wasted money this time but one perhaps worth noting for next time if conditions are deemed suitable.
My interest started with the follow up race at 1.50 which included a fight out between one of last seasons leading Novice Hurdlers Carlito Brigante and the current seasons supposed horse to follow Clerk's Choice. In the end the handicapper was made to look like a mental patient as Clerk's Choice failed to live up to his rating with supposed lumps of weight in hand on his rivals. Carlito Brigante stormed to the front and won like a good thing, The result had the Haydock stewards up in arms and they must have lost out on a big bet on the favourite as they repeatedly had the public announcer requesting the trainers attendance in the weighing room to explain himself post race. No doubt he blamed the ground which was something I declared could be a problem for the overhyped, untested favourite.
I was hopeful better was to come as that was not my biggest fancy of the day and in the next race I had my main interest King Fontaine running who had been a recent winner over C&D and appealed as the type worth following now that he was contesting three mile races. He won at a canter and had me favourably applauding his run in as I stood by the fences infront of the big screen.
The two feature races on the card were the only two races that I still had financial interest in and the race I had done the heaviest homework for was to follow at 2.50. According To Pete was one of my two considerations for the race but he illustrated that he was probably now past his best after a lacklustre effort. The horse that I touted as a possible upset causer Barafundle had been my each way selection for the race and after watching him walk around the parade ring looking mightily fit and tidy I felt obliged for a small top up bet on him providing the cameras with a shock. I had already won the two previous races and was now gunning for my hattrick. It was a great race and Barafundle ran a superb opener for what promises to be a very interesting and rewarding season for him now over the bigger obstacles. Ultimately he was not quite upto the same level of form that the clear favourite was capable of but at the same time he belied his 29-1 Betfair odds by running a galant second finishing a whopping 14 lengths of the horse in third Peveril. It was my first near miss of the season with one of my "whacky" outsiders but I know there will be as many that I win that I do indeed lose so I will wait with patience until one flies in. I did indeed have some of my stake on the place so it was not total heartache and Barafundle does indeed need placing into all those punter imaginery notebooks for the future at least for now.
Last on my agenda was for me to witness Imperial Commander waltz home in the Betfair Chase and although it was not a cake-walk he was a class above his rivals and not overly exerted before crossing the line in first. All the horses in behind in close proximity could be interesting as they did all run encouragingly and it could be a race where the form works out considerably well going forward. My planned forecast was scuppered by Tiday Bay springing a mini shock over the three mile trip and grabbing a confidence boosting runners up spot. What A Friend proved he aint quite upto the level that he aspires to be at as he was a muddling fifth with my own preferred choice for second place Planet Of Sound failing by only coming third. My second disappointment of the day but not one that was to be considered bad enough to have me cussing on my way out of the course.
I had a long steady walk back to my car immediately after Imperial Commander trotted over the finishing line. By the time I had reached my car some distance away I was pretty cold and started to make my way out. Some idiots had caused a jam up ahead so I thought it best to cut over the grass to the other exit so I could get myself out of the course sharpish. BIG MISTAKE!! As I approached the other side and neared the second line of traffic making its way out of the venue my car got stuck in a swamp! Mud was flying everywhere and my car F1 tyres are not built for grip! I thought I was in for it as I just went deeper and deeper into the mud before I took a chance and gave it a thrust in reverse to at least give me some momentum to escape backwards out of the mess. My car looked a disgrace and the grass area now looked like aliens had been designing a crop circle over Haydock Park as I left zig zags and curves all over the show. To my own amusement some silly woman had done the same thing and copied me and was still stuck as I got out. One of the biggest lessons for people out there is that following my tips and selections is OKAY but whatever you do - NEVER copy my driving!
Best wishes to Keith who I hope can interact in public again before Christmas.
Good luck with bets for tomorrow.
Becher Chase will be on my radar but I expect my bets tomorrow will be severely limited as I have a busy night ahead of me and am unsure as to what time I will be able to apportion to tomorrow's form reading. Expect any bets I do have lined up to be online before 12.30.
Hope you enjoyed today!
After a vast text around to people that I still consider acquaintences that I speak to, no one else was able to replace STD Keith so I had to get to Haydock by myself as I had already paid for the tickets and was not losing my money before a bet had even been placed!
Once at Haydock I collected my tickets before proceeding to register myself as the latest filthy ticket tout to land himself in the car park. "Anyone want a ticket? STD Keith has let me down and I need to sell!" In the end as I had only paid £15 for the ticket due to using the Betfair link I promoted earlier this week I accepted £10 and will send a legal letter of intent to STD Keith before the week is out for the remaining £5.
I made sure I only got to the course as the first race was ending as I have no interest in these race day openers that are only worthy enough to be rated as going stick finders.
The next race I had chosen to bet on Gringo which was to turn out to be the low light of my day as he simply could not jump. Try as he may he was just rubbish and the jockey quickly gave him an easy time of it realising there was simply no point in wasting his energy when there are other races for him later on in the year. Wasted money this time but one perhaps worth noting for next time if conditions are deemed suitable.
My interest started with the follow up race at 1.50 which included a fight out between one of last seasons leading Novice Hurdlers Carlito Brigante and the current seasons supposed horse to follow Clerk's Choice. In the end the handicapper was made to look like a mental patient as Clerk's Choice failed to live up to his rating with supposed lumps of weight in hand on his rivals. Carlito Brigante stormed to the front and won like a good thing, The result had the Haydock stewards up in arms and they must have lost out on a big bet on the favourite as they repeatedly had the public announcer requesting the trainers attendance in the weighing room to explain himself post race. No doubt he blamed the ground which was something I declared could be a problem for the overhyped, untested favourite.
I was hopeful better was to come as that was not my biggest fancy of the day and in the next race I had my main interest King Fontaine running who had been a recent winner over C&D and appealed as the type worth following now that he was contesting three mile races. He won at a canter and had me favourably applauding his run in as I stood by the fences infront of the big screen.
The two feature races on the card were the only two races that I still had financial interest in and the race I had done the heaviest homework for was to follow at 2.50. According To Pete was one of my two considerations for the race but he illustrated that he was probably now past his best after a lacklustre effort. The horse that I touted as a possible upset causer Barafundle had been my each way selection for the race and after watching him walk around the parade ring looking mightily fit and tidy I felt obliged for a small top up bet on him providing the cameras with a shock. I had already won the two previous races and was now gunning for my hattrick. It was a great race and Barafundle ran a superb opener for what promises to be a very interesting and rewarding season for him now over the bigger obstacles. Ultimately he was not quite upto the same level of form that the clear favourite was capable of but at the same time he belied his 29-1 Betfair odds by running a galant second finishing a whopping 14 lengths of the horse in third Peveril. It was my first near miss of the season with one of my "whacky" outsiders but I know there will be as many that I win that I do indeed lose so I will wait with patience until one flies in. I did indeed have some of my stake on the place so it was not total heartache and Barafundle does indeed need placing into all those punter imaginery notebooks for the future at least for now.
Last on my agenda was for me to witness Imperial Commander waltz home in the Betfair Chase and although it was not a cake-walk he was a class above his rivals and not overly exerted before crossing the line in first. All the horses in behind in close proximity could be interesting as they did all run encouragingly and it could be a race where the form works out considerably well going forward. My planned forecast was scuppered by Tiday Bay springing a mini shock over the three mile trip and grabbing a confidence boosting runners up spot. What A Friend proved he aint quite upto the level that he aspires to be at as he was a muddling fifth with my own preferred choice for second place Planet Of Sound failing by only coming third. My second disappointment of the day but not one that was to be considered bad enough to have me cussing on my way out of the course.
I had a long steady walk back to my car immediately after Imperial Commander trotted over the finishing line. By the time I had reached my car some distance away I was pretty cold and started to make my way out. Some idiots had caused a jam up ahead so I thought it best to cut over the grass to the other exit so I could get myself out of the course sharpish. BIG MISTAKE!! As I approached the other side and neared the second line of traffic making its way out of the venue my car got stuck in a swamp! Mud was flying everywhere and my car F1 tyres are not built for grip! I thought I was in for it as I just went deeper and deeper into the mud before I took a chance and gave it a thrust in reverse to at least give me some momentum to escape backwards out of the mess. My car looked a disgrace and the grass area now looked like aliens had been designing a crop circle over Haydock Park as I left zig zags and curves all over the show. To my own amusement some silly woman had done the same thing and copied me and was still stuck as I got out. One of the biggest lessons for people out there is that following my tips and selections is OKAY but whatever you do - NEVER copy my driving!
Best wishes to Keith who I hope can interact in public again before Christmas.
Good luck with bets for tomorrow.
Becher Chase will be on my radar but I expect my bets tomorrow will be severely limited as I have a busy night ahead of me and am unsure as to what time I will be able to apportion to tomorrow's form reading. Expect any bets I do have lined up to be online before 12.30.
Hope you enjoyed today!
Saturday Racing - Haydock Preview
With only a limited amount of time before I have to ready myself for a trip to Haydock to watch some quite brilliant racing I feel in a rush to find my selections this morning. I have been browsing the race cards though in brief throughout the week so I do have a starting point but it looks very tough and there is a slight worry that today could be expensive! ..... AND that ain't just because of the price of food at the course!!!
At 2.50 in the 40% Better Off On Betfair SP "Fixed Brush" Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) we are challenged with finding the winner of a 18 runner handicap hurdle that is not a straight-forward hurdle race. These Fixed Brush hurdles act as mini chase fences so it is always considered that a horse coming off a Chase run last time out OR a horse with a vastly inferior hurdles rating to it's chasing form will run well in these types of contest.
For this renewal however recent chasing form is limited. Fruity O'Rooney won a Chase last time but it was a very low grade affair and he should not have any inclusion with todays result. Of the others with recent chase form topweight Ballyfitz ran last week but he is not the greatest jumper over any obstacle and his recent form is not worthy of a winning chance. According To Pete possibly should have some interest running in a race he previously won in 2008. He is a high class horse on his day and has previously been rated as high as 145 over fences and with a liking for Fixed Brush hurdles rated at only 132 for this race he should be considered at nice odds. According To Pete enjoys his running at Haydock and appreciates rain softened ground so if his seasonal debut over an inadequate trip has sharpened him up he could provide good value for his backers.
It is clear that the favourite Grands Crus is the one to beat but his chances are reflected by his mediocre odds so I am not going to point out his obvious chance in this. With no experience over the trip or over fixed brush hurdles I am willing to take him on as that alone does not make him a 13-8 chance here despite the lumps of weight he has proven to be ahead of the handicapper with.
My other mild interest is the unconsidered and currently unbacked Barafundle who ended last season in noteworthy fashion when second over hurdles at this very track. He was a clear 2nd best that day behind Picture This but showed alot of zest and appealed as a type that could be better suited to the slightly harder challenge that Fixed Brush hurdles offer. He shares the same sire in Flemensfirth with world class three milers Imperial Commander and Pandorama so the staying trip appeals necessary and with only three previous attempts over three miles to his name he is clearly not rated according to the peak of his powers just yet. Could there be a shock? I would consider backing this one with a portion of my stakes on the place to cover myself as there should not be too many finishing infront of this one if he jumps well.
The main race on the card comes at 3.25 and is the Betfair Chase (Registered As The Lancashire Chase) Grade 1. This three mile chase is really the North's Gold Cup and often features one of the potential leading lights for the Cheltenham test later in the season. Last year saw a blindingly good race with Kauto Star prevailing in a headbobbing finish against future Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander. That was one of the all time classic races and I was felt priveleged to be up in the stands watching on. This years renewal see's Kauto Star missing as the trainer has mixed feelings about his leading light running in this event having found it tough on the last couple of occasions despite being a three time winner of the event.
The current star of chasing Imperial Commander however does once again take his chance with the trainer being VERY optimistic about his chance. However the betting is a concern as I notice this morning he has drifted with all the leading bookmakers which is quite bizarre. I say he has drifted but it is worth pointing out that he is STILL odds on. If you consider that Imperial Commander was some 24 lengths ahead of third place last year he would have won the renewal in some considerable fashion had Kauto Star not been in attendance. I feel that this season based on the fact he runs incredibly well fresh, is the Gold Cup champion, ran so well last season and is reported to be "well ahead in his training" compared to this time last year then despite him being the favourite he is probably still the greatest value in the race.
My problem is I do not like staking more than I am likely to win in profit and a reason why I never touch odds on chances over obstacles AT ALL! I do however sometimes if I feel that they are a solid enough option include them in a straight forecast to try and eek out potential decent winnings. So the challenge here is to find out what I feel will come second.
What A Friend is the bookmakers second choice and this dual Group 1 winner has a clear chance but his Group 1 wins have not been of the highest order with the Aintree race a simple gimme that he contested last April. Prior to that his Irish victory was quite lucky as Money Trix if being more aggressive may have toppled him but for a lacklustre safe ride.
The other Grade 1 winner in the field over this distance is Planet Of Sound who looks a likely contender to challenge in this and complete the forecast result. The ground is not likely to be ideal for him but he had the option to travel to Ascot for the weekend but Philip Hobb's would appear to be quite keen on him to take his chance at Haydock instead. His win in the Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup last April was impressive as it was his first attempt at the distance and opened up new avenues for this improving chaser. If Imperial Commander runs to form then he will not quite be good enough to match him but he can definitely give What A Friend a tough time when chasing home second place.
Of the supporting races I quite like Gringo who contests the Follow Paul Nicholls On Facebook And Twitter Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) race over 2m at 1.15. The Howard Johnson team have started the season well and despite a below average course strike rate I feel that Gringo is the best horse on show who will be at home on the ground. He is likely to be a 140 rated horse before long so the fact he remains on a mark of 132 should be taken advantage of whilst it can be.
Carlito Brigante could be worth a small sniff in the softish ground to win a decent prize in the Betfair iPhone & Android App Hurdle (CLASS 2) at 1.50. He was at the end of the day the FAVOURITE for last years Triumph Hurdle after impressive performances in Ireland prior to that event. He did not quite react well to the Cheltenham track and the good ground ultimately and has to be considered a better horse with soft in the going description. The same cannot be said of Clerk's Choice who has proven his best form to date when the going has been no worse than good. It makes an interesting match on paper and even though Carlito Brigante is conceding 4lb to a supposedly better rival (rated 22lbs higher) he is not without a chance and will be race fit for this contest after a recent spin at Dundalk on the flat.
At 2.20 in the betfair.com/paulnicholls Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) the Malcolm Jefferson trained King Fontaine looks on a very favourable mark for only his second start over a three mile trip. A tight winner over the hattrick seeking Maktu last time out over C&D makes good reading and he can progress now accustomed to the distance for a stable that is firing in a fair rate of winners lately.
I hope you feel I have been quite inventive with my selections and that you wish me endless luck with the challenge that lies ahead of me today! Break even after expenses and I will be mightily happy BUT I am hoping to make some profit from the above...
Pundit Pointers:
1.15 - Gringo (1pt @ 7-2 with Sportingbet)
1.50 - Carlito Brigante (0.5pts @ 7-2 with Paddypower / William Hill)
2.20 - King Fontaine (1.5pts @ 18-5 with Sportingbet)
2.50 - According To Pete (0.5pts @ 24-1 on Betfair)
2.50 - Barafundle (0.8pts @ 29-1 on Betfair)
2.50 - Barafundle (0.5pts @ 7-2 on Betfair TO PLACE)
3.25 - S/F'cast Bet - Imperial Commander / Planet Of Sound (0.8pts SP odds)
At 2.50 in the 40% Better Off On Betfair SP "Fixed Brush" Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) we are challenged with finding the winner of a 18 runner handicap hurdle that is not a straight-forward hurdle race. These Fixed Brush hurdles act as mini chase fences so it is always considered that a horse coming off a Chase run last time out OR a horse with a vastly inferior hurdles rating to it's chasing form will run well in these types of contest.
For this renewal however recent chasing form is limited. Fruity O'Rooney won a Chase last time but it was a very low grade affair and he should not have any inclusion with todays result. Of the others with recent chase form topweight Ballyfitz ran last week but he is not the greatest jumper over any obstacle and his recent form is not worthy of a winning chance. According To Pete possibly should have some interest running in a race he previously won in 2008. He is a high class horse on his day and has previously been rated as high as 145 over fences and with a liking for Fixed Brush hurdles rated at only 132 for this race he should be considered at nice odds. According To Pete enjoys his running at Haydock and appreciates rain softened ground so if his seasonal debut over an inadequate trip has sharpened him up he could provide good value for his backers.
It is clear that the favourite Grands Crus is the one to beat but his chances are reflected by his mediocre odds so I am not going to point out his obvious chance in this. With no experience over the trip or over fixed brush hurdles I am willing to take him on as that alone does not make him a 13-8 chance here despite the lumps of weight he has proven to be ahead of the handicapper with.
My other mild interest is the unconsidered and currently unbacked Barafundle who ended last season in noteworthy fashion when second over hurdles at this very track. He was a clear 2nd best that day behind Picture This but showed alot of zest and appealed as a type that could be better suited to the slightly harder challenge that Fixed Brush hurdles offer. He shares the same sire in Flemensfirth with world class three milers Imperial Commander and Pandorama so the staying trip appeals necessary and with only three previous attempts over three miles to his name he is clearly not rated according to the peak of his powers just yet. Could there be a shock? I would consider backing this one with a portion of my stakes on the place to cover myself as there should not be too many finishing infront of this one if he jumps well.
The main race on the card comes at 3.25 and is the Betfair Chase (Registered As The Lancashire Chase) Grade 1. This three mile chase is really the North's Gold Cup and often features one of the potential leading lights for the Cheltenham test later in the season. Last year saw a blindingly good race with Kauto Star prevailing in a headbobbing finish against future Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander. That was one of the all time classic races and I was felt priveleged to be up in the stands watching on. This years renewal see's Kauto Star missing as the trainer has mixed feelings about his leading light running in this event having found it tough on the last couple of occasions despite being a three time winner of the event.
The current star of chasing Imperial Commander however does once again take his chance with the trainer being VERY optimistic about his chance. However the betting is a concern as I notice this morning he has drifted with all the leading bookmakers which is quite bizarre. I say he has drifted but it is worth pointing out that he is STILL odds on. If you consider that Imperial Commander was some 24 lengths ahead of third place last year he would have won the renewal in some considerable fashion had Kauto Star not been in attendance. I feel that this season based on the fact he runs incredibly well fresh, is the Gold Cup champion, ran so well last season and is reported to be "well ahead in his training" compared to this time last year then despite him being the favourite he is probably still the greatest value in the race.
My problem is I do not like staking more than I am likely to win in profit and a reason why I never touch odds on chances over obstacles AT ALL! I do however sometimes if I feel that they are a solid enough option include them in a straight forecast to try and eek out potential decent winnings. So the challenge here is to find out what I feel will come second.
What A Friend is the bookmakers second choice and this dual Group 1 winner has a clear chance but his Group 1 wins have not been of the highest order with the Aintree race a simple gimme that he contested last April. Prior to that his Irish victory was quite lucky as Money Trix if being more aggressive may have toppled him but for a lacklustre safe ride.
The other Grade 1 winner in the field over this distance is Planet Of Sound who looks a likely contender to challenge in this and complete the forecast result. The ground is not likely to be ideal for him but he had the option to travel to Ascot for the weekend but Philip Hobb's would appear to be quite keen on him to take his chance at Haydock instead. His win in the Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup last April was impressive as it was his first attempt at the distance and opened up new avenues for this improving chaser. If Imperial Commander runs to form then he will not quite be good enough to match him but he can definitely give What A Friend a tough time when chasing home second place.
Of the supporting races I quite like Gringo who contests the Follow Paul Nicholls On Facebook And Twitter Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) race over 2m at 1.15. The Howard Johnson team have started the season well and despite a below average course strike rate I feel that Gringo is the best horse on show who will be at home on the ground. He is likely to be a 140 rated horse before long so the fact he remains on a mark of 132 should be taken advantage of whilst it can be.
Carlito Brigante could be worth a small sniff in the softish ground to win a decent prize in the Betfair iPhone & Android App Hurdle (CLASS 2) at 1.50. He was at the end of the day the FAVOURITE for last years Triumph Hurdle after impressive performances in Ireland prior to that event. He did not quite react well to the Cheltenham track and the good ground ultimately and has to be considered a better horse with soft in the going description. The same cannot be said of Clerk's Choice who has proven his best form to date when the going has been no worse than good. It makes an interesting match on paper and even though Carlito Brigante is conceding 4lb to a supposedly better rival (rated 22lbs higher) he is not without a chance and will be race fit for this contest after a recent spin at Dundalk on the flat.
At 2.20 in the betfair.com/paulnicholls Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) the Malcolm Jefferson trained King Fontaine looks on a very favourable mark for only his second start over a three mile trip. A tight winner over the hattrick seeking Maktu last time out over C&D makes good reading and he can progress now accustomed to the distance for a stable that is firing in a fair rate of winners lately.
I hope you feel I have been quite inventive with my selections and that you wish me endless luck with the challenge that lies ahead of me today! Break even after expenses and I will be mightily happy BUT I am hoping to make some profit from the above...
Pundit Pointers:
1.15 - Gringo (1pt @ 7-2 with Sportingbet)
1.50 - Carlito Brigante (0.5pts @ 7-2 with Paddypower / William Hill)
2.20 - King Fontaine (1.5pts @ 18-5 with Sportingbet)
2.50 - According To Pete (0.5pts @ 24-1 on Betfair)
2.50 - Barafundle (0.8pts @ 29-1 on Betfair)
2.50 - Barafundle (0.5pts @ 7-2 on Betfair TO PLACE)
3.25 - S/F'cast Bet - Imperial Commander / Planet Of Sound (0.8pts SP odds)
Wednesday, 17 November 2010
France - Overpriced?
It may be a friendly tonight and normally not a match that would interest me in the slightest but England vs France at Wembley this evening is intriguing if forgetting patriotism and betting on the French at monster 13-5 odds to win.
England will go into the game with a fresh look and team sheet due to injuries and new players being given a chance. There will be nerves by the debutantes and with injury doubts regarding Andy Carroll and Joe Hart definitely missing through a back problem it makes the price about the French look appealing.
France had a terrible world cup. They were odds on to win their group and one of my world cup winning bets when I bet on them to NOT finish top of their group - little did I know that I should have been betting on them to finish BOTTOM!
Their manager Domenech was a menace with no tactical or motivational skill sets and it was ridiculous that he was at the helm so long. The French as a team were in disarray and even quit training at one stage. The problem causers have since been suspended by their governing body but the squad still has the makings of being high class under the new regime of Laurent Blanc.
Tonight's France squad can recapture old form despite their experimental line up. One key attribute they will have is experience which England tonight will lack. No John Terry, Lampard, Rooney or Hart and the England squad starts to resemble a "B" team. England "B" vs France. 13-5 France? I will have some of that!
This is their one big chance as a nation for France to repay their public after the humiliation of South Africa. All England players will be motivated to do is show off and catch the attention of Capello. France with motivation could be ruthless if England "B" do not gel immediately and play football the correct way.
Pundit Pointer:
8.00 - France TO WIN (1pt @ 13-5 with Totesport)
England will go into the game with a fresh look and team sheet due to injuries and new players being given a chance. There will be nerves by the debutantes and with injury doubts regarding Andy Carroll and Joe Hart definitely missing through a back problem it makes the price about the French look appealing.
France had a terrible world cup. They were odds on to win their group and one of my world cup winning bets when I bet on them to NOT finish top of their group - little did I know that I should have been betting on them to finish BOTTOM!
Their manager Domenech was a menace with no tactical or motivational skill sets and it was ridiculous that he was at the helm so long. The French as a team were in disarray and even quit training at one stage. The problem causers have since been suspended by their governing body but the squad still has the makings of being high class under the new regime of Laurent Blanc.
Tonight's France squad can recapture old form despite their experimental line up. One key attribute they will have is experience which England tonight will lack. No John Terry, Lampard, Rooney or Hart and the England squad starts to resemble a "B" team. England "B" vs France. 13-5 France? I will have some of that!
This is their one big chance as a nation for France to repay their public after the humiliation of South Africa. All England players will be motivated to do is show off and catch the attention of Capello. France with motivation could be ruthless if England "B" do not gel immediately and play football the correct way.
Pundit Pointer:
8.00 - France TO WIN (1pt @ 13-5 with Totesport)
Tuesday, 16 November 2010
Time To Change
Awful awful awful. Still wondering where my head is at after some of that form reading at the weekend. I submitted my Totetentofollow on Thursday evening and three of my personal five picks ran at the weekend. Solwhit and Menorah both won on Sunday and Mad Max was a creditable fourth on Saturday. So I ask myself, why did I not bet on ANY of them?
Crazy stuff! If I was keen enough to select them in my FIVE most fancied horses for this season (after the bankers had been selected by Reg) then surely I should have been having interests in them at the weekend rather than swerving them in the betting for dozey also-rans.
Admittedly there was never much value about Solwhit and not betting on Mad Max in bundles was a good thing as he failed to win but to avoid Menorah and select THREE others ahead of him on the day for the Greatwood Hurdle? What on EARTH was going on there in my head???
Luckily I have the blog to keep me sane otherwise knowing I had made such a colossal error of judgement historically would have led me to "lump on" the later races without any care of consequence. So that is my only saviour for what proved to be a rotton weekend of bad thinking and inadequate betting.
This Saturday I am on my way to Haydock to witness the always electric Betfair Chase and the curiously entertaining Fixed Brush Hurdle race that precedes it. Last years renewal was won in outstanding fashion by Diamond Harry who looked very special when running out a game winner ahead of Burton Point who himself turned out to be no fool later in the year.
A repeat of that race alone will be worth the entrance fee come Saturday. Another nail biting nose finish in the big race itself would not go amiss again either.
I will have to update my results for the last fortnight this week, not looking forward to that one bit! Ha, but doing it will help me turn it around quicker I am sure. Or perhaps I should say I am hoping!
For anyone reading who happens to live not a million miles away from Haydock you might be interested to hear that Betfair have upto 40% discounted tickets available if booked for using the following link. It is an interesting offer and one worth using if you plan on attending at the weekend.
BETFAIR DISCOUNTED TICKET OFFER - CLICK HERE -
Crazy stuff! If I was keen enough to select them in my FIVE most fancied horses for this season (after the bankers had been selected by Reg) then surely I should have been having interests in them at the weekend rather than swerving them in the betting for dozey also-rans.
Admittedly there was never much value about Solwhit and not betting on Mad Max in bundles was a good thing as he failed to win but to avoid Menorah and select THREE others ahead of him on the day for the Greatwood Hurdle? What on EARTH was going on there in my head???
Luckily I have the blog to keep me sane otherwise knowing I had made such a colossal error of judgement historically would have led me to "lump on" the later races without any care of consequence. So that is my only saviour for what proved to be a rotton weekend of bad thinking and inadequate betting.
This Saturday I am on my way to Haydock to witness the always electric Betfair Chase and the curiously entertaining Fixed Brush Hurdle race that precedes it. Last years renewal was won in outstanding fashion by Diamond Harry who looked very special when running out a game winner ahead of Burton Point who himself turned out to be no fool later in the year.
A repeat of that race alone will be worth the entrance fee come Saturday. Another nail biting nose finish in the big race itself would not go amiss again either.
I will have to update my results for the last fortnight this week, not looking forward to that one bit! Ha, but doing it will help me turn it around quicker I am sure. Or perhaps I should say I am hoping!
For anyone reading who happens to live not a million miles away from Haydock you might be interested to hear that Betfair have upto 40% discounted tickets available if booked for using the following link. It is an interesting offer and one worth using if you plan on attending at the weekend.
BETFAIR DISCOUNTED TICKET OFFER - CLICK HERE -
Sunday, 14 November 2010
I Am Having Multiples!
I am having a small tinker with two trebles for todays racing.
At Cheltenham 1.45 Tataniano can prove his progression to be continuing with a beating of perennial second placer Forpaddytheplasterer who is a fantastic horse in general but all too often finds one too good in a finish. I think he is simply unlucky as there is no question of his will to win but bad luck may well continue with the improving Tataniano in opposition.
At Punchestown 2.15 Solwhit (one of my totetentofollow picks) has his ideal conditions and ground to be a winner against three very high class rivals. It's a very competitive race but I would never dare go against a horse that flourishes when the mud is flying.
At Cheltenham 2.20 I have already wrote my preview and have split my treble stakes by including BOTH Sure Josie Sure and General Miller to provide me with a final leg victory in my treble. I think both are progressive and fairly handicapped and should put up a bold show and hopefully land the treble.
The General Miller treble pays out at 41-1.
The Sure Josie Sure treble pays out at 55-1.
These odds are with Sportingbet but it may pay more handsomely if you do your multiple on Betfair!
To join Betfair follow this link and place your bet.
JOIN BETFAIR - £25 FREE BET OFFER
At Cheltenham 1.45 Tataniano can prove his progression to be continuing with a beating of perennial second placer Forpaddytheplasterer who is a fantastic horse in general but all too often finds one too good in a finish. I think he is simply unlucky as there is no question of his will to win but bad luck may well continue with the improving Tataniano in opposition.
At Punchestown 2.15 Solwhit (one of my totetentofollow picks) has his ideal conditions and ground to be a winner against three very high class rivals. It's a very competitive race but I would never dare go against a horse that flourishes when the mud is flying.
At Cheltenham 2.20 I have already wrote my preview and have split my treble stakes by including BOTH Sure Josie Sure and General Miller to provide me with a final leg victory in my treble. I think both are progressive and fairly handicapped and should put up a bold show and hopefully land the treble.
The General Miller treble pays out at 41-1.
The Sure Josie Sure treble pays out at 55-1.
These odds are with Sportingbet but it may pay more handsomely if you do your multiple on Betfair!
To join Betfair follow this link and place your bet.
Greatwood Hurdle - My Thoughts On Sunday
Today's feature race at Cheltenham is the 2.20 Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3). With some big names from last seasons festival ready to line up, including the likes of Menorah, Sanctuaire and Get Me Out Of Here, this looks a relatively strong renewal when compared to the most recent seasons.
Any Given Day a recent ready winner at Chepstow takes part along with Astracad who won his preparation for this race over C&D in commanding fashion.
Historical trends will suggest looking for a total outsider is a wasted assignment as only one horse bigger than 9-1 odds has won this event in the last decade. With several solid Cheltenham runners in the field there surely cannot be a shock on the cards?
Well one angle I am looking at this race from is PACE. Where is the pace here? Is there a commanding pacesetter in the field? Which horses like to lead and not be headed? That is the concern as on paper there is no definite single horse likely to take them along here.
A slow pace in effect will kill off Menorah's chances as he only shows his best when there is a strong pace to chase. Same applies to Get Me Out Of Here who craves being held up and a strongly run race. Will they both get that and if they don't, who can take advantage?
General Miller is one of my heavy considerations for that feat as he has a 5lb pull in the weights with previous rival Menorah and is open to improvement this season quite significantly as he has only had five hurdles races to date in his career. Already a winner of a quality Novice hurdle at the track when making his debut over the small obstacles last year his chances at these weights look promising in ground that should not be too slow for him.
Noticeably there have only been two FOUR year old winners of this race since 1988 and the most recent of those was the very high class Detroit City so in theory for a four year old to be a success in this he will have to be top class as they receive no weight in the handicap against their elders.
Of the four year olds that feature Sanctuaire is likely to be the most talented but he will improve for the experience I feel and it is questionable whether he is upto this sort of test already against Graded race winners who have had more time to develop.
Manyriverstocross is not without a chance and has been supported in the betting as a result. His trainer Alan King has been quite open about the fact they know he has a good handicap mark at present and do not want to ruin it by winning a small race. If they are to be penalised they want to do it with a Graded race win! However with Wayne Hutchinson in the saddle a bet at 6-1 has no appeal whatsoever to me as he is not in the same stratosphere as Robert Thornton and is quite capable of messing it up as is indicated with his 1 win from 39 hurdle starts on the track in the last five seasons. It is hard to get away from the fact that he was defeated last season at Newbury by Getmeoutofhere when they were rated identically. For it was only a six length defeat and they reoppose with Manyriverstocross 12lb better off. The main problem is likely to be the fact that he is another that likes to be held up and make a late run but its unlikely to be favourable tactics in a race which on paper lacks a good gallop.
My speculative thoughts surround the lower echelons of the handicap with SURE JOSIE SURE coming into the race with a rating of just 127. She enjoys racing up with the pace and has a victory over Nearby to her name who has gone onto much better things since then with a succession of victories. There has been snippets of support for her already in the market with many bookmakers now trimming her in from 9-1 to 8-1 and it is not difficult to see why with the lay out of the running likely to suit her much better than some of her heavier rivals.
The outsider to consider could be St Devote who comes over from Ireland to take part but with the British Handicapper not being very overseas friendly for this race he could have his work cut out. However St Devote is saddled with a 5lb claimer and will be fully tuned up having raced over summer so if there are any chinks in the armour of some he could be the one to take advantage. His recent win over Star Wood makes interesting reading as that one was then second behind classy mare Voler La Vedette in a Mares Listed race at Punchestown. It would have appealed more had St Devote had more give underfoot for this race as he could still be well handicapped back in his native Ireland when conditions are soft.
A race with many variables which could mean it is fascinating to watch but problematic to bet in.
I am going to split stakes and hope to win with the following bets:
Sure Josie Sure (1pt @ 17-2 on Betfair)
General Miller (1pt @ 7-1 VARIOUS)
St Devote (0.4pts @ 54-1 on Betfair)
Lets hope for a change in fortune after a disappointing Saturday!
Any Given Day a recent ready winner at Chepstow takes part along with Astracad who won his preparation for this race over C&D in commanding fashion.
Historical trends will suggest looking for a total outsider is a wasted assignment as only one horse bigger than 9-1 odds has won this event in the last decade. With several solid Cheltenham runners in the field there surely cannot be a shock on the cards?
Well one angle I am looking at this race from is PACE. Where is the pace here? Is there a commanding pacesetter in the field? Which horses like to lead and not be headed? That is the concern as on paper there is no definite single horse likely to take them along here.
A slow pace in effect will kill off Menorah's chances as he only shows his best when there is a strong pace to chase. Same applies to Get Me Out Of Here who craves being held up and a strongly run race. Will they both get that and if they don't, who can take advantage?
General Miller is one of my heavy considerations for that feat as he has a 5lb pull in the weights with previous rival Menorah and is open to improvement this season quite significantly as he has only had five hurdles races to date in his career. Already a winner of a quality Novice hurdle at the track when making his debut over the small obstacles last year his chances at these weights look promising in ground that should not be too slow for him.
Noticeably there have only been two FOUR year old winners of this race since 1988 and the most recent of those was the very high class Detroit City so in theory for a four year old to be a success in this he will have to be top class as they receive no weight in the handicap against their elders.
Of the four year olds that feature Sanctuaire is likely to be the most talented but he will improve for the experience I feel and it is questionable whether he is upto this sort of test already against Graded race winners who have had more time to develop.
Manyriverstocross is not without a chance and has been supported in the betting as a result. His trainer Alan King has been quite open about the fact they know he has a good handicap mark at present and do not want to ruin it by winning a small race. If they are to be penalised they want to do it with a Graded race win! However with Wayne Hutchinson in the saddle a bet at 6-1 has no appeal whatsoever to me as he is not in the same stratosphere as Robert Thornton and is quite capable of messing it up as is indicated with his 1 win from 39 hurdle starts on the track in the last five seasons. It is hard to get away from the fact that he was defeated last season at Newbury by Getmeoutofhere when they were rated identically. For it was only a six length defeat and they reoppose with Manyriverstocross 12lb better off. The main problem is likely to be the fact that he is another that likes to be held up and make a late run but its unlikely to be favourable tactics in a race which on paper lacks a good gallop.
My speculative thoughts surround the lower echelons of the handicap with SURE JOSIE SURE coming into the race with a rating of just 127. She enjoys racing up with the pace and has a victory over Nearby to her name who has gone onto much better things since then with a succession of victories. There has been snippets of support for her already in the market with many bookmakers now trimming her in from 9-1 to 8-1 and it is not difficult to see why with the lay out of the running likely to suit her much better than some of her heavier rivals.
The outsider to consider could be St Devote who comes over from Ireland to take part but with the British Handicapper not being very overseas friendly for this race he could have his work cut out. However St Devote is saddled with a 5lb claimer and will be fully tuned up having raced over summer so if there are any chinks in the armour of some he could be the one to take advantage. His recent win over Star Wood makes interesting reading as that one was then second behind classy mare Voler La Vedette in a Mares Listed race at Punchestown. It would have appealed more had St Devote had more give underfoot for this race as he could still be well handicapped back in his native Ireland when conditions are soft.
A race with many variables which could mean it is fascinating to watch but problematic to bet in.
I am going to split stakes and hope to win with the following bets:
Sure Josie Sure (1pt @ 17-2 on Betfair)
General Miller (1pt @ 7-1 VARIOUS)
St Devote (0.4pts @ 54-1 on Betfair)
Lets hope for a change in fortune after a disappointing Saturday!
Saturday, 13 November 2010
Mad Max Added!
I have added a small 0.5pt stake punt to my days wagers with my Totetentofollow entrant Mad Max hoping to run out a ready winner of the Paddypower Gold Cup. I think he has a solid chance and is a fair price but the horses at the bottom of the weights could be a worry so he is only my second choice behind Sunnyhillboy.
Still, on all known form I think he is talented and worth a small bet here.
Pundit Pointer EXTRA:
2.35 - Mad Max (0.5pts @ 10-1 on Betfair)
Still, on all known form I think he is talented and worth a small bet here.
Pundit Pointer EXTRA:
2.35 - Mad Max (0.5pts @ 10-1 on Betfair)
Saturday Racing Preview - Cheltenham Open Meeting
One course today, three races, large fields but a significant hunger to find a winner. Should I be having a bet? Probably not. A sensible option today would be to just relax and perhaps go support my local football side Bury who are flying high and have a derby game against Stockport on offer. No, I am staying home, I want to bet because I feel a winner is not far away...
The first of my scheduled races to attack is the staying handicap chase at 1.55. The Morson Group Handicap Chase (Grade 3) is run over 3m3f110y. Horses that run fresh have a good record so a previous run is not a major concern to me here but one very noticeable fact is that the race is always won by a horse that is covered in the first six of the betting. Looking for an outsider here is probably not the smartest thing to do. Horses with a heavy weight on their back often do not have enough class to shine through due to the nature of the race where several well handicapped horses lurking below 11st get into the race to claim the win. 8 out of the last 10 winners have carried under 11st to victory.
These are simple, easy to find trends that are not bulletproof but can point me in the direction of a runner in with a "chance". My verdict having considered everything is the very smart but often frightening to watch BALLYFITZ.
Ballyfitz is not one to show much respect to his fences which often means he comes a cropper and ruins his chance. Cheltenham is one of those tracks where you tend to need a good jumper on your side to be a winner so perhaps it makes little sense from that point of view that he is my selection.
However take the jumping frailties out of the equation and consider the chance that he may jump a clear round having been schooled some more over the summer months and the 12-1 appears to be very punter friendly in my view for this DUAL Novice chase and track winner.
He was good enough last year to come FOURTH in todays big race the Paddypower Gold Cup from a mark of 146. He runs today off just 138 and considering the Paddypower trip was far too short for him to be fully effective it was a great course run to make the frame. In his novice days Ballyfitz commanded two decent course Novice chases which showed there was potential to go quite some way in this sphere.
Over hurdles Ballyfitz even won the Pertemps Final at this track so I feel I do not need to explain further that Ballyfitz despite his problems ACTS CONSIDERABLY WELL at Cheltenham. With Sam Twiston Davies in the saddle he is able to claim a further 3lb off the horses back which brings him under the 11st barrier which is often the barrier for many a winner. Add to that he runs very well when fresh and you have the makings of a value 12-1 bet to get the day off to a great start.
Back any single winner with bet365 at 4/1 or more on a UK or Irish race televised live on Channel 4 and you can have a free bet to the same stake on the next live Channel 4 race. If your free bet also wins at odds of 4/1 or more, you qualify for a free bet on the next live Channel 4 race. Keep backing those winners and bet365 will keep giving you free bets!
The big race follows at 2.35 where Long Run is a punters' favourite to take the Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) Grade 3. 7-2 is a strange price considering all the hype so clearly the bookmakers are willing to take it on. Quite right that they do so considering since 1960 when the race was incorporated there has been just ONE WINNER aged five that has won this event. JUST ONE! I will repeat - JUST ONE! For those that struggle reading that is JUST ONE! Still want to be on him at 7-2? Thought not.
So what are the alternatives? Great Endeavour is a well regarded individual who was one of the horses that won for me last year at Cheltenham and in effect inspired me to create this blog to help others and maintain more self-discipline. David Pipe has been reserved in the run up to this race and repeatedly claimed his horse is a clear second best to Long Run here. That is perhaps so but with just 10st 4lb on his back he will be flying at the finish and be right in the mix at the end. Will he win? Not certain and the 5-1 is not thrilling me considering I was a backer at 18-1 last season to get my winnings.
The runner up that day was a horse called SUNNYHILLBOY who once again challenges his rival at Cheltenham. A hold up performer with a speedy finish who should be steaming up the hill late on should he be race fit. However that is the question - will he be race fit here? Jonjo O'Neill's horses have not been sparkling so far this year with them all seemingly needing the run. However he could have had enough time to possibly get this one ready for a good first time out showing. Why enter a horse in a Graded handicap first time out if you do not feel your charge is upto the challenge?
Tony McCoy wishes he was shorter I imagine as he misses out on the ride due to the fact he cannot shrink down to 10st 1lb. Richie McLernon takes the reins and claims a valuable 3lb which gives him a 5lb swing in the weights with Great Endeavour to basically give him a HUGE chance of turning the tables. The price on offer is once again very punter friendly with 13-1 available at the time of writing on Betfair.
My last target of the day is a hurdle race but should be still exciting to watch with a decent field assembled for the 3.10 Jardine Lloyd Thompson Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race). I am going to go with the unconsidered horse in the betting and bottomweight IS IT ME who ran very well when last seen at Cheltenham in October when just touched off in a head bobbing finish to claim second place. There is no question that Is It Me comes into this race fully fit having been campaigned since Summer. Formerly quite a decent hurdler his form has dipped since peaking at a mark of 138 over hurdles only last year. Is It Me has regained some form of late with two recent second places and is only rated 116 for this event but having not made the handicap proper will run off a mark of 119. However Richie McLernon takes 3lb off with his claim so in effect Is It Me will run off his supposedly "correct" weight.
This is a speculative effort from me but having seen his recent Cheltenham trial race pop in one or two winners for this event in the last decade he does have a chance but for whatever reason has been ignored on all known form which could be a judgement error on many peoples part. Looking through the historical trends it would appear that light-weighted horses hold all the aces, but Is It Me? I hope so.
CHELTENHAM
1.55 - Ballyfitz (2pts @ 12-1 with Bet365)
2.35 - Sunnyhillboy (1pt @ 13-1 Betfair)
3.10 - Is It Me (1pt @ 23-1 Betfair)
The first of my scheduled races to attack is the staying handicap chase at 1.55. The Morson Group Handicap Chase (Grade 3) is run over 3m3f110y. Horses that run fresh have a good record so a previous run is not a major concern to me here but one very noticeable fact is that the race is always won by a horse that is covered in the first six of the betting. Looking for an outsider here is probably not the smartest thing to do. Horses with a heavy weight on their back often do not have enough class to shine through due to the nature of the race where several well handicapped horses lurking below 11st get into the race to claim the win. 8 out of the last 10 winners have carried under 11st to victory.
These are simple, easy to find trends that are not bulletproof but can point me in the direction of a runner in with a "chance". My verdict having considered everything is the very smart but often frightening to watch BALLYFITZ.
Ballyfitz is not one to show much respect to his fences which often means he comes a cropper and ruins his chance. Cheltenham is one of those tracks where you tend to need a good jumper on your side to be a winner so perhaps it makes little sense from that point of view that he is my selection.
However take the jumping frailties out of the equation and consider the chance that he may jump a clear round having been schooled some more over the summer months and the 12-1 appears to be very punter friendly in my view for this DUAL Novice chase and track winner.
He was good enough last year to come FOURTH in todays big race the Paddypower Gold Cup from a mark of 146. He runs today off just 138 and considering the Paddypower trip was far too short for him to be fully effective it was a great course run to make the frame. In his novice days Ballyfitz commanded two decent course Novice chases which showed there was potential to go quite some way in this sphere.
Over hurdles Ballyfitz even won the Pertemps Final at this track so I feel I do not need to explain further that Ballyfitz despite his problems ACTS CONSIDERABLY WELL at Cheltenham. With Sam Twiston Davies in the saddle he is able to claim a further 3lb off the horses back which brings him under the 11st barrier which is often the barrier for many a winner. Add to that he runs very well when fresh and you have the makings of a value 12-1 bet to get the day off to a great start.
Back any single winner with bet365 at 4/1 or more on a UK or Irish race televised live on Channel 4 and you can have a free bet to the same stake on the next live Channel 4 race. If your free bet also wins at odds of 4/1 or more, you qualify for a free bet on the next live Channel 4 race. Keep backing those winners and bet365 will keep giving you free bets!
The big race follows at 2.35 where Long Run is a punters' favourite to take the Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) Grade 3. 7-2 is a strange price considering all the hype so clearly the bookmakers are willing to take it on. Quite right that they do so considering since 1960 when the race was incorporated there has been just ONE WINNER aged five that has won this event. JUST ONE! I will repeat - JUST ONE! For those that struggle reading that is JUST ONE! Still want to be on him at 7-2? Thought not.
So what are the alternatives? Great Endeavour is a well regarded individual who was one of the horses that won for me last year at Cheltenham and in effect inspired me to create this blog to help others and maintain more self-discipline. David Pipe has been reserved in the run up to this race and repeatedly claimed his horse is a clear second best to Long Run here. That is perhaps so but with just 10st 4lb on his back he will be flying at the finish and be right in the mix at the end. Will he win? Not certain and the 5-1 is not thrilling me considering I was a backer at 18-1 last season to get my winnings.
The runner up that day was a horse called SUNNYHILLBOY who once again challenges his rival at Cheltenham. A hold up performer with a speedy finish who should be steaming up the hill late on should he be race fit. However that is the question - will he be race fit here? Jonjo O'Neill's horses have not been sparkling so far this year with them all seemingly needing the run. However he could have had enough time to possibly get this one ready for a good first time out showing. Why enter a horse in a Graded handicap first time out if you do not feel your charge is upto the challenge?
Tony McCoy wishes he was shorter I imagine as he misses out on the ride due to the fact he cannot shrink down to 10st 1lb. Richie McLernon takes the reins and claims a valuable 3lb which gives him a 5lb swing in the weights with Great Endeavour to basically give him a HUGE chance of turning the tables. The price on offer is once again very punter friendly with 13-1 available at the time of writing on Betfair.
This is a speculative effort from me but having seen his recent Cheltenham trial race pop in one or two winners for this event in the last decade he does have a chance but for whatever reason has been ignored on all known form which could be a judgement error on many peoples part. Looking through the historical trends it would appear that light-weighted horses hold all the aces, but Is It Me? I hope so.
CHELTENHAM
1.55 - Ballyfitz (2pts @ 12-1 with Bet365)
2.35 - Sunnyhillboy (1pt @ 13-1 Betfair)
3.10 - Is It Me (1pt @ 23-1 Betfair)
Saturday On Its Way
Annoyingly I vacated the form reading for the first day of Cheltenham's Open Meeting so that I could finalise my Totetentofollow selections on Thursday night. Just my luck that Lacdoudal and Time For Rupert who ran great races last season when I bet on them at Cheltenham went onto win in my absence!
Not too disheartened as there is no guarantee that I would have found their SP's to be value and so I may have not bet on them anyway had I seen them on the racecard beforehand.
Todays DAY TWO selections will be on there way later today at about 12PM.
Up until yesterday I thought I was off to Haydock before I realised that I had my dates wrong and was a week infront of myself.
The race targets today are the big races at Cheltenham:
1:55 Morson Group Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m3f110y
2:35 Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 Cl1 2m4f110y
3:10 Jardine Lloyd Thompson Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f110y
Time to get looking!
Not too disheartened as there is no guarantee that I would have found their SP's to be value and so I may have not bet on them anyway had I seen them on the racecard beforehand.
Todays DAY TWO selections will be on there way later today at about 12PM.
Up until yesterday I thought I was off to Haydock before I realised that I had my dates wrong and was a week infront of myself.
The race targets today are the big races at Cheltenham:
1:55 Morson Group Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m3f110y
2:35 Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 Cl1 2m4f110y
3:10 Jardine Lloyd Thompson Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f110y
Time to get looking!
Thursday, 11 November 2010
Totetentofollow - The Dream Line
My first voyage into the Totetentofollow competition this season and whilst I am only having a minimum play of one line (£10) I still wanted it to be in with a chance from the off.
I assigned regular blog visitor Reg with the task of finding me 5 HOT SHOTS to be my main players and myself the task of finding 5 of interest with with a speculative look about them.
The line up has been finalised and here are the pundit picks:
Reg's FIVE:
BIG BUCKS
Heavy point scorer last season due to him winning FOUR times and remaining unbeaten in the 2009-10 season. Class act and the best staying hurdler of modern times. Unlikely to be giving up his mantle as the best long distance hurdler any time soon.
BINOCULAR
Champion Hurdle winner of 2010 and set to run in the Fighting Fifth hurdle at Newcastle later this month. Definitely a class act but took time to get into the groove last season and will need to start winning sooner and repeat his Champion Hurdle success to be a real heavy points scorer. Very possible that he may do though.
IMPERIAL COMMANDER
Betfair Chase bound at Haydock on Saturday and a warm favourite after being touched off last season by the minimal of distances by Kauto Star in a head bobbing, nerve tingling, atmospheric finish to the line. Bettered that run by winning the Gold Cup at Cheltenham and is on the hunt to retain that trophy this time around.
MASTER MINDED
A high class horse with time on his side as still only a 7yo despite TWO Champion Chase wins at Cheltenham to his name already. Had quite an iffy season though by his standards last year and needs to get back to his early career days form wise to score a decent total this time around.
QUEVEGA
Reg must be seriously praying this mare is more active than last season where she waited until the Cheltenham festival to make her seasonal debut to win the Mares' Hurdle. A couple of high class prep runs would be very much appreciated and if that happens then she may well score very well this time around.
Oddspundit's FIVE:
FINIAN'S RAINBOW
High class Novice Hurdler who is set to be aimed at fences this season. Every good line up needs a solid Novice Chaser and this is my punt at being this seasons rising star! Does not necessarily mean I will be betting on him for every outing as there will probably never be much value. However for a competition like this he has solid attributes. Fingers crossed he stays healthy.
MAD MAX
Classy individual expected to improve over fences this season. Already a winner of the Grade 2 Manifesto Novices' Chase at Aintree last season he has an entry in the Paddypower Gold Cup and catches the eye as a possible winner to get the season off to a flying start.
MENORAH
Top Novice 2m hurdler last season and never out of the first two in seven outings. Expected to improve again this season and the Greatwood Hurdle is the first step on the road to more glory this term. Well respected.
PANDORAMA
Heading for the Hennessy Gold Cup and no reason why he will not be a well considered favourite for the contest later this year. Very classy individual with 8 wins from 9 career outings. Simply cannot be missed off the list of possible heavy points scorers this term.
SOLWHIT
Loves it soft and irish racing and can be another big player this season over two miles on his homeland territory should it be a very wet Autumn / Winter. Should have plenty of races over hurdles and solid chances to score a decent total.
Deadline for Entries is NOON on Friday 12 November.
Now I must attempt to have my tote account unblocked...... that should be interesting!
I assigned regular blog visitor Reg with the task of finding me 5 HOT SHOTS to be my main players and myself the task of finding 5 of interest with with a speculative look about them.
The line up has been finalised and here are the pundit picks:
Reg's FIVE:
BIG BUCKS
Heavy point scorer last season due to him winning FOUR times and remaining unbeaten in the 2009-10 season. Class act and the best staying hurdler of modern times. Unlikely to be giving up his mantle as the best long distance hurdler any time soon.
BINOCULAR
Champion Hurdle winner of 2010 and set to run in the Fighting Fifth hurdle at Newcastle later this month. Definitely a class act but took time to get into the groove last season and will need to start winning sooner and repeat his Champion Hurdle success to be a real heavy points scorer. Very possible that he may do though.
IMPERIAL COMMANDER
Betfair Chase bound at Haydock on Saturday and a warm favourite after being touched off last season by the minimal of distances by Kauto Star in a head bobbing, nerve tingling, atmospheric finish to the line. Bettered that run by winning the Gold Cup at Cheltenham and is on the hunt to retain that trophy this time around.
MASTER MINDED
A high class horse with time on his side as still only a 7yo despite TWO Champion Chase wins at Cheltenham to his name already. Had quite an iffy season though by his standards last year and needs to get back to his early career days form wise to score a decent total this time around.
QUEVEGA
Reg must be seriously praying this mare is more active than last season where she waited until the Cheltenham festival to make her seasonal debut to win the Mares' Hurdle. A couple of high class prep runs would be very much appreciated and if that happens then she may well score very well this time around.
Oddspundit's FIVE:
FINIAN'S RAINBOW
High class Novice Hurdler who is set to be aimed at fences this season. Every good line up needs a solid Novice Chaser and this is my punt at being this seasons rising star! Does not necessarily mean I will be betting on him for every outing as there will probably never be much value. However for a competition like this he has solid attributes. Fingers crossed he stays healthy.
MAD MAX
Classy individual expected to improve over fences this season. Already a winner of the Grade 2 Manifesto Novices' Chase at Aintree last season he has an entry in the Paddypower Gold Cup and catches the eye as a possible winner to get the season off to a flying start.
MENORAH
Top Novice 2m hurdler last season and never out of the first two in seven outings. Expected to improve again this season and the Greatwood Hurdle is the first step on the road to more glory this term. Well respected.
PANDORAMA
Heading for the Hennessy Gold Cup and no reason why he will not be a well considered favourite for the contest later this year. Very classy individual with 8 wins from 9 career outings. Simply cannot be missed off the list of possible heavy points scorers this term.
SOLWHIT
Loves it soft and irish racing and can be another big player this season over two miles on his homeland territory should it be a very wet Autumn / Winter. Should have plenty of races over hurdles and solid chances to score a decent total.
Deadline for Entries is NOON on Friday 12 November.
Now I must attempt to have my tote account unblocked...... that should be interesting!
Monday, 8 November 2010
Zenyatta
There was one sobering moment whilst I drank myself into a wretched state on Saturday evening and that was the realisation that Zenyatta was beatable.
Built like a stallion she had a weight advantage over her fellow opponents but it was still not enough for her to beat the classy Blame who ran the perfect race. Zenyatta herself had been very slowly away and was a frightening number of lengths behind the main pack and in excess of twenty lengths behind the pacesetters in the early part of the race. That at the end of the day is her style and she has never been interested in going off quickly and enjoys the thrill of the chase down the home stretch too much to act any differently.
It was a fascinating race to watch but Zenyatta can only retire and be known as the best racing mare the US has bred for several decades. She will never be the world's best as she always chose to run in easy G1's against her own sex and limited opposition. However the two runs she did gamble and run against the boys were epic battles and a thrilling joy to watch. In 2009 on the first occasion she ran the perfect race but on this occasion she was just a couple of strides too slow. I fully believe the jockey was not at fault for her defeat unlike the moronic At The Races presenters who had a field day vilifying Mike Smith who let her race so far behind early on. When they watch the replay with an actual brain they may notice that the eventual winner was never better than midpack in the chasing group so in effect she was perhaps not as badly placed as it appeared with the leaders going off noticeably too quickly.
Despite not having a winner for the meeting I was not too disheartened as I had not gone in heavily unlike last year when I had no discipline! Perhaps in hindsight I will reduce my bets further next year and just concentrate on the Turf Mile and Classic as those are the real Group 1 events. The rest of the races appear to be just sideshows in the dirt.
Now that I have rambled sit back and enjoy the 2009 and 2010 replays of the Breeders Cup Classic. Quite possibly two of the most enthralling flat races there have ever been.
2009 BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC REPLAY
2010 BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC REPLAY
Built like a stallion she had a weight advantage over her fellow opponents but it was still not enough for her to beat the classy Blame who ran the perfect race. Zenyatta herself had been very slowly away and was a frightening number of lengths behind the main pack and in excess of twenty lengths behind the pacesetters in the early part of the race. That at the end of the day is her style and she has never been interested in going off quickly and enjoys the thrill of the chase down the home stretch too much to act any differently.
It was a fascinating race to watch but Zenyatta can only retire and be known as the best racing mare the US has bred for several decades. She will never be the world's best as she always chose to run in easy G1's against her own sex and limited opposition. However the two runs she did gamble and run against the boys were epic battles and a thrilling joy to watch. In 2009 on the first occasion she ran the perfect race but on this occasion she was just a couple of strides too slow. I fully believe the jockey was not at fault for her defeat unlike the moronic At The Races presenters who had a field day vilifying Mike Smith who let her race so far behind early on. When they watch the replay with an actual brain they may notice that the eventual winner was never better than midpack in the chasing group so in effect she was perhaps not as badly placed as it appeared with the leaders going off noticeably too quickly.
Despite not having a winner for the meeting I was not too disheartened as I had not gone in heavily unlike last year when I had no discipline! Perhaps in hindsight I will reduce my bets further next year and just concentrate on the Turf Mile and Classic as those are the real Group 1 events. The rest of the races appear to be just sideshows in the dirt.
Now that I have rambled sit back and enjoy the 2009 and 2010 replays of the Breeders Cup Classic. Quite possibly two of the most enthralling flat races there have ever been.
2009 BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC REPLAY
2010 BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC REPLAY
Saturday, 6 November 2010
Bad Results
Not the greatest weekend ever experienced by my betting account and perhaps I did not take a significant enough interested in the Breeders Cup action that USA offered us. Annoyed that I missed out on some of the colossal prices that managed a victory but only a psychic could have managed such a feat I imagine.
On a very poor day there was one bright moment when Dee Ee Williams managed a third place on only his first start of the campaign which showed signs that he may go on from that showing and prove a real contender when next featuring on the race track.
I am not peturbed as Breeders Cup night is one of those events that you simply feel you "have" to bet on as a racing punter (which is what I currently ultimately am) and I envisage better results as the JUMPS season progresses and there are form comparisons on show.
I anticipate I will be a lonely attendee at Haydock for a Grade 1 Betfair Chase but I still look forward to that being the real start of the Oddspundit season over Jumps.
Like I said, the Breeders Cup was ultimately a little bit of fun that simply did not materialise. Though i am certain you will agree that the Breeders Cup Classic was one of the most awe inspiring races ever seen for a generation when Zenyatta was beaten by a head against Blame the very talented but massively underated male adversary.
On a very poor day there was one bright moment when Dee Ee Williams managed a third place on only his first start of the campaign which showed signs that he may go on from that showing and prove a real contender when next featuring on the race track.
I am not peturbed as Breeders Cup night is one of those events that you simply feel you "have" to bet on as a racing punter (which is what I currently ultimately am) and I envisage better results as the JUMPS season progresses and there are form comparisons on show.
I anticipate I will be a lonely attendee at Haydock for a Grade 1 Betfair Chase but I still look forward to that being the real start of the Oddspundit season over Jumps.
Like I said, the Breeders Cup was ultimately a little bit of fun that simply did not materialise. Though i am certain you will agree that the Breeders Cup Classic was one of the most awe inspiring races ever seen for a generation when Zenyatta was beaten by a head against Blame the very talented but massively underated male adversary.
Breeders Cup Highlights
With multiple Group 1 races awaiting the evening looks compelling and with a drink in my hand it also looks like it could be expensive if I do not prepare my bets in advance.
I will start off my Breeders Cup at 7.15 in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 2) with a very small play on Silver Timber who looks useful and should have a race run to suit him in the 5f speed test.
In the TVG Breeders´ Cup Mile (Grade 1) at 8.40 Europe's greatest mare Goldikova who is currently in training bids for a hattrick of victories in the mile but this will be a different test than those two previously rendered at Santa Anita. Can she be beaten? Possibly but it will be very close. Paco Boy is very short considering he has only ever seen Goldikova's rear end in his races and he would only interest me if given a double figured price. Of the US horses I like the look of Court Vision who has some good wins under his belt at a range of distances between a 8f-10f. The only doubt may possibly be that this trip is on the short side for him and 9f would have been preferred ideally. I am likely to have a few plays in this race American style with an exacta and trifecta but Court Vision could be worth a small play in the exacta market with Goldikova. Gio Ponti is game enough to grab third and give the trifecta some appeal? Let's pray together for that bet to come in!
Tizway looks a capable selection to be victorious in the Dirt Mile event next on the card at 9.20. Ladbrokes go shortest about his chance which means they do not want you to bet with them on him. Could be the magic sign he is to storm home infront.
I have no extensive urges to bet in the 10.00 Emirates Airline Breeders´ Cup Turf (Grade 1) event with Workforce now being a non-runner. However Winchester I feel is still a nice price for a small play should the overseas horses not perform as they did not do Friday evening. Winchester has looked as if a step up to 12f could improve him and he has a snippet of a chance in a race that should have in theory been dominated by European runners at the start of this week.
The finale awaits us at 10.45 where Zenyatta bids to become the greatest American racehorse for many a decade in the Breeders´ Cup Classic (Grade 1). Her record has only ever been contested against her own sex apart from one outing against the boys when winning this event last year in spectacular fashion. She is a big strapping mare and due to her receiving weight from the boys always comes here with a chance but the US wants a fairytale and I am not convinced it will materialise.
Quality Road was well fancied in last years renewal to upstage Zenyatta but unbelieveably refused to enter the stalls. He is one of the real stars in America in the male division and he will finally get chance to put right a distinctive wrong this evening in a race that will make fascinating viewing.
Pundit Pointers:
7.15 - Silver Timber (0.4pts @ 9-2 Sportingbet)
8.40 - Goldikova / Court Vision (Exacta)
8.40 - Goldikova / Court Vision / Gio Ponti (Trifecta)
The above two bets are not tips, just play bets in the hope of glory!!
9.20 - Tizway (0.4pts @ 11-2 Bet365)
10.00 - Winchester (0.5pts @ 12-1 William Hill)
10.45 - Quality Road (1pt @ 8-1 William Hill)
I will start off my Breeders Cup at 7.15 in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 2) with a very small play on Silver Timber who looks useful and should have a race run to suit him in the 5f speed test.
In the TVG Breeders´ Cup Mile (Grade 1) at 8.40 Europe's greatest mare Goldikova who is currently in training bids for a hattrick of victories in the mile but this will be a different test than those two previously rendered at Santa Anita. Can she be beaten? Possibly but it will be very close. Paco Boy is very short considering he has only ever seen Goldikova's rear end in his races and he would only interest me if given a double figured price. Of the US horses I like the look of Court Vision who has some good wins under his belt at a range of distances between a 8f-10f. The only doubt may possibly be that this trip is on the short side for him and 9f would have been preferred ideally. I am likely to have a few plays in this race American style with an exacta and trifecta but Court Vision could be worth a small play in the exacta market with Goldikova. Gio Ponti is game enough to grab third and give the trifecta some appeal? Let's pray together for that bet to come in!
Tizway looks a capable selection to be victorious in the Dirt Mile event next on the card at 9.20. Ladbrokes go shortest about his chance which means they do not want you to bet with them on him. Could be the magic sign he is to storm home infront.
I have no extensive urges to bet in the 10.00 Emirates Airline Breeders´ Cup Turf (Grade 1) event with Workforce now being a non-runner. However Winchester I feel is still a nice price for a small play should the overseas horses not perform as they did not do Friday evening. Winchester has looked as if a step up to 12f could improve him and he has a snippet of a chance in a race that should have in theory been dominated by European runners at the start of this week.
The finale awaits us at 10.45 where Zenyatta bids to become the greatest American racehorse for many a decade in the Breeders´ Cup Classic (Grade 1). Her record has only ever been contested against her own sex apart from one outing against the boys when winning this event last year in spectacular fashion. She is a big strapping mare and due to her receiving weight from the boys always comes here with a chance but the US wants a fairytale and I am not convinced it will materialise.
Quality Road was well fancied in last years renewal to upstage Zenyatta but unbelieveably refused to enter the stalls. He is one of the real stars in America in the male division and he will finally get chance to put right a distinctive wrong this evening in a race that will make fascinating viewing.
Pundit Pointers:
7.15 - Silver Timber (0.4pts @ 9-2 Sportingbet)
8.40 - Goldikova / Court Vision (Exacta)
8.40 - Goldikova / Court Vision / Gio Ponti (Trifecta)
The above two bets are not tips, just play bets in the hope of glory!!
9.20 - Tizway (0.4pts @ 11-2 Bet365)
10.00 - Winchester (0.5pts @ 12-1 William Hill)
10.45 - Quality Road (1pt @ 8-1 William Hill)
Saturday Preview - Wincanton / Doncaster / Down Royal
There should be some nice replays on Attheraces/Sportinglife for me to look forward to watching this evening when I return from the football. You can tell I am not rich as had I been I would have possibly said that there are some nice replays to pay 20p for on Racingpost to watch when I get home this evening! How they can charge to view British racing when their competitors offer it for free is unbelieveable but there must be numpties out there that pay it! I'm digressing, perhaps save my discontent for another post some other time. We have races to win for now.
Action today for myself gets going with a very competitive Grade 2 event at 2.10. The totescoop6 Elite Hurdle is run over a sharp two miles at Wincanton and features some proper speed burning front runners which could see the race set up for someone willing to give their mount a patient ride in behind. Australia Day, Barizan and Black Jack Blues all do their winning from the front so there is a frenetic early gallop awaiting us here. Can any of those hold on and win? Possibly as there is some very good talent amongst those three. Barizan is a Grade 1 winner and Black Jack Blues is progressing nicely and likely to be contesting Graded races now all season. Australia Day showed his class when thrashing a decent field including former Champion Hurdle winner Katchit last time out. Punters today have latched onto him to repeat the performance but that is far from guarenteed and his odds offer little inspiration from a betting point of view from me considering the likely pace in the field will do him little favours.
The horse that inspires me from a value perspective is Nick Gifford's runner Dee Ee Williams.
Despite an age of seven he has only had 10 competitive hurdle outings to date and has won well when having been greeted with decent ground. His last years April run at the Grand National meeting was very classy when he ran out a very game six length winner. He clearly runs well fresh having debuted last season three lengths behind the always prepared Tchico Polos. He also managed to win on his debut the year before so the outlook is perhaps very promising for a horse that is likely to sit just behind the leading quartet and push on late on.
With that being said there is another horse that looks very feasibly handicapped and as if he has been prepped with this race in mind. Leslingtaylor was third behing Dee Ee Williams last year at Aintree and is another who is well suited to a flat track with good ground. While Dee Ee Williams has gone up 10lb since that run it is a fact that Leslingtaylor has only risen 3lb in the handicap since. They take each other on with Leslingtaylor 7lb better off and he is 100% race ready for this having had two decent runs on the flat. With that in Leslingtaylor's favour and with the pace of the race likely to play into his hands he could be worth a shout and I will happily take them both under my wing and have them as my runners for this Grade 2.
The November Handicap ends the flat season at Doncaster in style but with a 22 runner field it can be considered a bit of a minefield for a win only bet. However WIN ONLY is my style and I am too stubborn to change so it is with interest that I scan the racecard knowing that big prices often do very well in this feature race.
Only twice in the last decade has a single figure draw been the place to be so the trends indicate it is favourable to have a high berth. Surprisingly though horses that have had between 34-50 days off the track have the better record than those that have raced within the last few weeks. I always look for race fit horses but at this time of year it appears to be rewarding if a horse comes here more fresh than normal.
Despite my selection having raced 28 days ago I see this as no disadvantage and I am happy to declare Sirvino as my pick for the prize. Well drawn and coming into form after a quiet season he could be ready to gain compensation for a couple of recent staying on second places. It is worth noting that horses in FORM win this race despite the huge prices that win and Sirvino is another one of those big priced in form horses that can be added hopefully to that roll of honour.
Sirvino is still quite fresh with only five runs to his name this season. Last year he won the highly sought after 97k prize in the John Smiths Cup at York where he raced off a mark of 92. Prior to that run he had been in fine form and won his every start in lower graded races. He was raised massively for that win and only recently had his handicap mark finally been dropping. He has been penalised quite leniently and only suffered a 2lb rise in his rating for recent near misses and today he could be at his peak for a very bold show. Not a race admittedly that I will be placing heaps of cash in though.
Arguably my personal favourite horse in training runs at Down Royal in the Jnwine Champion Chase (Grade 1) at 2.25. A three mile race for the best chasers around with Kauto Star swerving his usual sabbatical of fire at Haydock next week in order to take his chance here. However it is not Kauto Star that is my personal favourite but instead the forgotton Trafford Lad. On his day Trafford Lad is a true determined performer and always gives it his best. Last season was looking like it could be his best when he gave weight away to both Tranquil Sea and Joncol on his seasonal debut and finished a close third. He was injured thereafter and has been off the track for a full year but connections are hoping that he can make up for lost time and win a Grade 1 this time around.
Trafford Lad based on known form is far better than a 25-1 chance but the disappointment is the declaration of only 7 runners which means the place value is limited. For him to win you would have to reason that something needs to go amiss with Kauto Star but after that rival I do not see any horse in this field willing enough to outbattle him.
Perhaps the bet to have is a straight forecast on Kauto Star to win and Trafford Lad to come second. The price would definitely hold some interest and be quite capable of being a winning outcome.
Pundit Pointers:
Doncaster
3.10 - Sirvino (0.5pts @ 18-1 Betfair)
Down Royal
2.25 - Kauto Star/Trafford Lad (0.5pts S/F - Best odds BET365)
Wincanton
2.10 - Dee Ee Williams (0.5pts @ 14-1 Skybet)
2.10 - Leslingtaylor (0.5pts @ 12-1 Bet365)
GOT TO SAVE SOME PENNIES FOR THE BREEDERS CUP ACTION! Hoping to get a nice prize from the above few though.
Action today for myself gets going with a very competitive Grade 2 event at 2.10. The totescoop6 Elite Hurdle is run over a sharp two miles at Wincanton and features some proper speed burning front runners which could see the race set up for someone willing to give their mount a patient ride in behind. Australia Day, Barizan and Black Jack Blues all do their winning from the front so there is a frenetic early gallop awaiting us here. Can any of those hold on and win? Possibly as there is some very good talent amongst those three. Barizan is a Grade 1 winner and Black Jack Blues is progressing nicely and likely to be contesting Graded races now all season. Australia Day showed his class when thrashing a decent field including former Champion Hurdle winner Katchit last time out. Punters today have latched onto him to repeat the performance but that is far from guarenteed and his odds offer little inspiration from a betting point of view from me considering the likely pace in the field will do him little favours.
The horse that inspires me from a value perspective is Nick Gifford's runner Dee Ee Williams.
Despite an age of seven he has only had 10 competitive hurdle outings to date and has won well when having been greeted with decent ground. His last years April run at the Grand National meeting was very classy when he ran out a very game six length winner. He clearly runs well fresh having debuted last season three lengths behind the always prepared Tchico Polos. He also managed to win on his debut the year before so the outlook is perhaps very promising for a horse that is likely to sit just behind the leading quartet and push on late on.
With that being said there is another horse that looks very feasibly handicapped and as if he has been prepped with this race in mind. Leslingtaylor was third behing Dee Ee Williams last year at Aintree and is another who is well suited to a flat track with good ground. While Dee Ee Williams has gone up 10lb since that run it is a fact that Leslingtaylor has only risen 3lb in the handicap since. They take each other on with Leslingtaylor 7lb better off and he is 100% race ready for this having had two decent runs on the flat. With that in Leslingtaylor's favour and with the pace of the race likely to play into his hands he could be worth a shout and I will happily take them both under my wing and have them as my runners for this Grade 2.
The November Handicap ends the flat season at Doncaster in style but with a 22 runner field it can be considered a bit of a minefield for a win only bet. However WIN ONLY is my style and I am too stubborn to change so it is with interest that I scan the racecard knowing that big prices often do very well in this feature race.
Only twice in the last decade has a single figure draw been the place to be so the trends indicate it is favourable to have a high berth. Surprisingly though horses that have had between 34-50 days off the track have the better record than those that have raced within the last few weeks. I always look for race fit horses but at this time of year it appears to be rewarding if a horse comes here more fresh than normal.
Despite my selection having raced 28 days ago I see this as no disadvantage and I am happy to declare Sirvino as my pick for the prize. Well drawn and coming into form after a quiet season he could be ready to gain compensation for a couple of recent staying on second places. It is worth noting that horses in FORM win this race despite the huge prices that win and Sirvino is another one of those big priced in form horses that can be added hopefully to that roll of honour.
Sirvino is still quite fresh with only five runs to his name this season. Last year he won the highly sought after 97k prize in the John Smiths Cup at York where he raced off a mark of 92. Prior to that run he had been in fine form and won his every start in lower graded races. He was raised massively for that win and only recently had his handicap mark finally been dropping. He has been penalised quite leniently and only suffered a 2lb rise in his rating for recent near misses and today he could be at his peak for a very bold show. Not a race admittedly that I will be placing heaps of cash in though.
Arguably my personal favourite horse in training runs at Down Royal in the Jnwine Champion Chase (Grade 1) at 2.25. A three mile race for the best chasers around with Kauto Star swerving his usual sabbatical of fire at Haydock next week in order to take his chance here. However it is not Kauto Star that is my personal favourite but instead the forgotton Trafford Lad. On his day Trafford Lad is a true determined performer and always gives it his best. Last season was looking like it could be his best when he gave weight away to both Tranquil Sea and Joncol on his seasonal debut and finished a close third. He was injured thereafter and has been off the track for a full year but connections are hoping that he can make up for lost time and win a Grade 1 this time around.
Trafford Lad based on known form is far better than a 25-1 chance but the disappointment is the declaration of only 7 runners which means the place value is limited. For him to win you would have to reason that something needs to go amiss with Kauto Star but after that rival I do not see any horse in this field willing enough to outbattle him.
Perhaps the bet to have is a straight forecast on Kauto Star to win and Trafford Lad to come second. The price would definitely hold some interest and be quite capable of being a winning outcome.
Watch Kauto Star in his final prep gallop for Down Royal....
Pundit Pointers:
Doncaster
3.10 - Sirvino (0.5pts @ 18-1 Betfair)
Down Royal
2.25 - Kauto Star/Trafford Lad (0.5pts S/F - Best odds BET365)
Wincanton
2.10 - Dee Ee Williams (0.5pts @ 14-1 Skybet)
2.10 - Leslingtaylor (0.5pts @ 12-1 Bet365)
GOT TO SAVE SOME PENNIES FOR THE BREEDERS CUP ACTION! Hoping to get a nice prize from the above few though.
Racing Today
I have risen from the depths of my cosy bed and look forward to finding my selections for todays action on Channel 4. This afternoon I will be missing the live footage as I set about visiting the home of the Mighty Shakers - Bury FC for their First Round FA Cup tie against Exeter.
I had the privelege of watching lowly FC UNITED play Rochdale yesterday evening on ESPN. It was a tough call over which event gained the respect of my viewing - Breeders Cup or FA CUP? But there is something about the FA CUP that makes you always suspect a shock and the 11-1 pre-match underdogs FC UNITED sluiced up Bury's biggest rivals Rochdale in good style and ultimately won 3-2 after a fascinating match with a dodgy 94th minute winner. One of the greatest FA CUP non league performances for many a year.
I still had chance to watch my two Breeders Cup selections in action but it was to no avail. There should be better chances to find some nice value on Saturdays card.
I will set about finding my UK racing winners over the next few hours and then once I have returned from the football check through the Churchill Downs card for possible Breeders Cup interests.
Check back at midday for the UK action but check the Oddspundit FACEBOOK page as I will be revealing my selections on there as I find them and before I do my write up! That should help give some people a head start with regards to best prices.
I'll be back!
I had the privelege of watching lowly FC UNITED play Rochdale yesterday evening on ESPN. It was a tough call over which event gained the respect of my viewing - Breeders Cup or FA CUP? But there is something about the FA CUP that makes you always suspect a shock and the 11-1 pre-match underdogs FC UNITED sluiced up Bury's biggest rivals Rochdale in good style and ultimately won 3-2 after a fascinating match with a dodgy 94th minute winner. One of the greatest FA CUP non league performances for many a year.
I still had chance to watch my two Breeders Cup selections in action but it was to no avail. There should be better chances to find some nice value on Saturdays card.
I will set about finding my UK racing winners over the next few hours and then once I have returned from the football check through the Churchill Downs card for possible Breeders Cup interests.
Check back at midday for the UK action but check the Oddspundit FACEBOOK page as I will be revealing my selections on there as I find them and before I do my write up! That should help give some people a head start with regards to best prices.
I'll be back!
Friday, 5 November 2010
Breeders Cup - Value Hunt
The fillie's are my concentration this evening for both my late night anticipated bets at Churchill Downs. First on the agenda is the 10.50 Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1). Midday was a ghastly short price earlier in the week at no better than EVENS to win and repeat last years success. The odds made no sense though and she has quite rightly drifted out to a slightly more sensible 11/8 with Ladbrokes and Bet365.
The price though still does not give me any urges to be a player though she has the best form out of all those racing. However late support for Japanese raider RED DESIRE is noticeable and she could come with a rattling late run to dispose of the current champion on the line. Red Desire is likely to be better suited to quicker going than Midday and her form in both Japan and Meydan against the boys makes impressive reading. She was a game third in the Japanese Cup behind Vodka in 2009 and excelled when beating future World Cup winner Gloria De Campeo in a Grade 2 event at Meydan. Red Desire was again able to show her class when challenging for a long way in the Japanese Victoria Cup in which she was a splendid fourth over a trip much shorter than is required for her stamina to be used. If Midday does not get too far ahead of Red Desire turning the home bend then it is very likely the latter can pass the British raider and give Japan their first win in the race. She has been supported with good effect in the last 48 hours so should run a solid race.
In the last race of the evening at 11.30 we are treated to the Breeders´ Cup Ladies´ Classic (Grade 1). The 3yo Blind Luck races as favourite and should run her race but there is a very tight margin in her best price 5-2 offering as this is the first time she will have competed against her elders in over 14 career starts. Of the older horses there has been support for 5yo Life At Ten and her 7-2 price is quite reasonable for this older horse but records suggest that no winner aged 5 has won this race since 1998 I am tempted to take her on as well. My interest is the unconsidered ACTING HAPPY wearing first time blinkers. She was two lengths behind Blind Luck on her most recent start having made the early running and her trainer seems optimistic when recently quoted in the media. Richard Dutrow Jnr said “There are some nice horses in it, but it's not the toughest Ladies' Classic I've ever seen,” said Rick Dutrow, Acting Happy's trainer and Tony's brother. “Blind Luck is obviously one of the fillies to beat. … You don't see too many horses accomplish what she has, shipping all over the country and winning in all these different spots. We are looking forward to taking another run against her. I know my filly has got the pedigree, the looks, the talent and classic (distances) to be a major factor in here.”
In my eyes there is an interesting 20-1 punt there to be had but I will not be betting more than small stakes as I need to save my pennies for a more serious interlude with the UK Saturday Channel 4 action and REAL Breeders Cup action tomorrow night.
The Breeders Cup can be viewed on Attheraces this evening between 7.45-11.45.
Pundit Pointers:
10.50 - Red Desire (0.5pts on American Tote (Predicted SP 8-1)*
*Should pay better odds than 4-1 of UK Bookmakers*
11.30 - Acting Happy (0.5pts @ 28-1 Betfair)
The price though still does not give me any urges to be a player though she has the best form out of all those racing. However late support for Japanese raider RED DESIRE is noticeable and she could come with a rattling late run to dispose of the current champion on the line. Red Desire is likely to be better suited to quicker going than Midday and her form in both Japan and Meydan against the boys makes impressive reading. She was a game third in the Japanese Cup behind Vodka in 2009 and excelled when beating future World Cup winner Gloria De Campeo in a Grade 2 event at Meydan. Red Desire was again able to show her class when challenging for a long way in the Japanese Victoria Cup in which she was a splendid fourth over a trip much shorter than is required for her stamina to be used. If Midday does not get too far ahead of Red Desire turning the home bend then it is very likely the latter can pass the British raider and give Japan their first win in the race. She has been supported with good effect in the last 48 hours so should run a solid race.
In the last race of the evening at 11.30 we are treated to the Breeders´ Cup Ladies´ Classic (Grade 1). The 3yo Blind Luck races as favourite and should run her race but there is a very tight margin in her best price 5-2 offering as this is the first time she will have competed against her elders in over 14 career starts. Of the older horses there has been support for 5yo Life At Ten and her 7-2 price is quite reasonable for this older horse but records suggest that no winner aged 5 has won this race since 1998 I am tempted to take her on as well. My interest is the unconsidered ACTING HAPPY wearing first time blinkers. She was two lengths behind Blind Luck on her most recent start having made the early running and her trainer seems optimistic when recently quoted in the media. Richard Dutrow Jnr said “There are some nice horses in it, but it's not the toughest Ladies' Classic I've ever seen,” said Rick Dutrow, Acting Happy's trainer and Tony's brother. “Blind Luck is obviously one of the fillies to beat. … You don't see too many horses accomplish what she has, shipping all over the country and winning in all these different spots. We are looking forward to taking another run against her. I know my filly has got the pedigree, the looks, the talent and classic (distances) to be a major factor in here.”
In my eyes there is an interesting 20-1 punt there to be had but I will not be betting more than small stakes as I need to save my pennies for a more serious interlude with the UK Saturday Channel 4 action and REAL Breeders Cup action tomorrow night.
The Breeders Cup can be viewed on Attheraces this evening between 7.45-11.45.
Pundit Pointers:
10.50 - Red Desire (0.5pts on American Tote (Predicted SP 8-1)*
*Should pay better odds than 4-1 of UK Bookmakers*
11.30 - Acting Happy (0.5pts @ 28-1 Betfair)
Destination Churchill Downs - Ladies In Action
The first day of Breeders Cup weekend is tonight and despite being the lesser of the two days in terms of quality the fillies in action are no mugs and with a mare like Midday on display the quality is undoubtedly high class.
I am going to study my interests in the comforts of my own home later on today and will write up my thoughts on what is worth a bet then. I would be foolish to suggest any horses at this moment in time as I have no completed my form studies.
I am unlikely to bet in any of the early races and my two main targets of interest are the high class filly races that close play on the first day.
These are:
10.50 - Emirates Airline Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1)
11.30 - Breeders´ Cup Ladies´ Classic (Grade 1)
There are some interesting types in both events and the question many ask is Midday good value at EVENS for the Turf race at 10.50PM? Those of you that know how I think will probably know my answer to that so check back later to hear my view.
Good luck with your exactas, trifectas and all that stuff if you choose to have a few cheeky bets with the bookies!
Remember to check out the prices though in the US Pools as these can be very generous when anticipating a good performance from a foreign runner.
I am going to study my interests in the comforts of my own home later on today and will write up my thoughts on what is worth a bet then. I would be foolish to suggest any horses at this moment in time as I have no completed my form studies.
I am unlikely to bet in any of the early races and my two main targets of interest are the high class filly races that close play on the first day.
These are:
10.50 - Emirates Airline Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1)
11.30 - Breeders´ Cup Ladies´ Classic (Grade 1)
There are some interesting types in both events and the question many ask is Midday good value at EVENS for the Turf race at 10.50PM? Those of you that know how I think will probably know my answer to that so check back later to hear my view.
Good luck with your exactas, trifectas and all that stuff if you choose to have a few cheeky bets with the bookies!
Remember to check out the prices though in the US Pools as these can be very generous when anticipating a good performance from a foreign runner.
Wednesday, 3 November 2010
Oddspundit Debuts On Facebook
After abit of confusion and uncompromising lack of knowledge I have finally managed to set up a profile on Facebook for this very blog.
This will hopefully help Oddspundit ideally become more of a community rather than a racing blog rant.
I will be able to post mini status updates on there that do not warrant an epic blog write up on here. It will also give you access to any funny betting movements I come across on my journey across the exchanges and betting sites at the weekend.
I can't realistically blog on here about every little thing I notice but there is no reason why I cannot divulge a thought or two in brief on Facebook instead. I will also be able to update my Facebook group from the racecourse so when I am having a nightmare and contemplating streaking across the track you'll hear about it first on there!
Hopefully with a profitable betting season ahead word will spread that Oddspundit is one of the more interesting, entertaining and profitable sports betting sites on the web.
Take a look at the new Facebook page here and show your support.
If you have any ideas on how I can improve the blog or the facebook group further then please let me know via e-mail.
Many thanks.
This will hopefully help Oddspundit ideally become more of a community rather than a racing blog rant.
I will be able to post mini status updates on there that do not warrant an epic blog write up on here. It will also give you access to any funny betting movements I come across on my journey across the exchanges and betting sites at the weekend.
I can't realistically blog on here about every little thing I notice but there is no reason why I cannot divulge a thought or two in brief on Facebook instead. I will also be able to update my Facebook group from the racecourse so when I am having a nightmare and contemplating streaking across the track you'll hear about it first on there!
Hopefully with a profitable betting season ahead word will spread that Oddspundit is one of the more interesting, entertaining and profitable sports betting sites on the web.
Take a look at the new Facebook page here and show your support.
If you have any ideas on how I can improve the blog or the facebook group further then please let me know via e-mail.
Many thanks.
Tuesday, 2 November 2010
Polos Magic Beats Twist
Having just sat down to watch a replay of the Haldoun Gold Cup on Attheraces.com I am still abit gobsmacked TCHICO POLOS found enough in a sterling staying performance to become the winner of the race. Four fences from home I had psychologically given up on the bet and was ready to once again open the Bad Debt file. Tchico Polos looked down and out having tried to stay amongst the chasing pack to catch the two obscenely fast pacesetters Herecomesthetruth and The Sawyer.
Twist Magic needs utmost respect carrying such a huge weight around the track and almost pipping the lightly weighted Tchico Polos in a riveting finish of tiring horses. Not to be ignored either realistically was the favourite Somersby who will no doubt improve massively on today's run having finished a few lengths adrift in third.
I was lucky to get some of the 9-2 early price and I am thankful I did not dither before the price got snapped up by the shrewdies out there. It is only one winner but my sole aim over winter is to break even and this winner puts me in profit for now.
Breeders Cup may put a dent my wealth come weekend but the plan for that is to place a selection of smallish bets in the hope I just win enough for a good night out afterwards.
Simple aims create handsome gains!
I'll believe that until proven otherwise.... (Saturday evening!)
Twist Magic needs utmost respect carrying such a huge weight around the track and almost pipping the lightly weighted Tchico Polos in a riveting finish of tiring horses. Not to be ignored either realistically was the favourite Somersby who will no doubt improve massively on today's run having finished a few lengths adrift in third.
I was lucky to get some of the 9-2 early price and I am thankful I did not dither before the price got snapped up by the shrewdies out there. It is only one winner but my sole aim over winter is to break even and this winner puts me in profit for now.
Breeders Cup may put a dent my wealth come weekend but the plan for that is to place a selection of smallish bets in the hope I just win enough for a good night out afterwards.
Simple aims create handsome gains!
I'll believe that until proven otherwise.... (Saturday evening!)
Haldoun Gold Cup - Exeter Preview
Tuesday sees the annual return of the very classy Grade 2 Haldoun Gold Cup run just over two miles at Exeter's tricky little uneven circuit. The race acts as a sad reminder of the untimely demise of Best Mate who suffered a heart attack when nearing the end of this feature event in 2005. One of the true greats of modern times this became the first time in 21 career outings that the horse had failed to finish in the first two. The triple Cheltenham Gold Cup winner will live long in the memory.
A fitting tribute to Henrietta Knight's former stable star would be for her latest improver Somersby to win the race. If Somersby was to prove successful this would be Knight's fifth win in the race since 2001. Thanks to three tremendous wins by Edredon Bleu and a cosy success for the incredible Best Mate previously.
I am not one to be sentimental however and I will always pick a horse on its merits and in my honest opinion I feel Somersby is there to be shot at as the race favourite. I felt he was massively underpriced for last years Arkle at Cheltenham but I was made to eat my words nearly when he ran Sizing Europe close in an exciting finish. Somersby has not often appeared the quickest horse to ever race and the sticky soft ground may not be ideal either. There is absolutely no doubting he has the potential to be very good this season and improve but Best Mate and Edredon Bleu were simply in a different league when put as a comparison. Somersby could quite feasibly need the run as well.
Cornas has some claims with a run already under his belt this season but his previous C&D win from last year was when receiving weight from his sparse rivals who were not really upto much better than Class 2 handicap company in fairness. The ground should also be a worry as there is a arguable reduction of form to his name in the described ground.
The one that could catch them all asleep and upgrade his C&D win in Novice company from last season at this meeting is TCHICO POLOS. He is merely a six year old capable of improvement but last year put up a sterling performance to outwit his Novice rivals by leading them a merry dance. The time was quite impressive too considering he carried a winning penalty and he can only have improved as a specimen since then.
Ruby Walsh gets the nod in the saddle and this excellent jumper who should relish soft ground can take advantage of the possibility that some of this line up will come here in need of the run.
It was tempting to side with my recent selection I'msingingtheblues who fell last time when running a decent race at Aintree in the Old Roan Chase. However he fell before it became a test and his confidence is bound to have been knocked for it so I did not need much convincing to leave him alone on this occasion.
I have taken a gamble and backed early with the 9-2 that William Hill have on offer for the event. Hopefully Tchico Polos will not drift now or I will feel slightly wasteful. However the only time I am able to bet tomorrow is lunchtime and it could possibly be a 7-2 chance by then. After all, this horse jumps pretty well and if given a lead will take a fair bit of catching in his favoured conditions.
Pundit Pointer:
2.35 - Tchico Polos (2pts 9-2 @ William Hill)
A fitting tribute to Henrietta Knight's former stable star would be for her latest improver Somersby to win the race. If Somersby was to prove successful this would be Knight's fifth win in the race since 2001. Thanks to three tremendous wins by Edredon Bleu and a cosy success for the incredible Best Mate previously.
I am not one to be sentimental however and I will always pick a horse on its merits and in my honest opinion I feel Somersby is there to be shot at as the race favourite. I felt he was massively underpriced for last years Arkle at Cheltenham but I was made to eat my words nearly when he ran Sizing Europe close in an exciting finish. Somersby has not often appeared the quickest horse to ever race and the sticky soft ground may not be ideal either. There is absolutely no doubting he has the potential to be very good this season and improve but Best Mate and Edredon Bleu were simply in a different league when put as a comparison. Somersby could quite feasibly need the run as well.
Cornas has some claims with a run already under his belt this season but his previous C&D win from last year was when receiving weight from his sparse rivals who were not really upto much better than Class 2 handicap company in fairness. The ground should also be a worry as there is a arguable reduction of form to his name in the described ground.
The one that could catch them all asleep and upgrade his C&D win in Novice company from last season at this meeting is TCHICO POLOS. He is merely a six year old capable of improvement but last year put up a sterling performance to outwit his Novice rivals by leading them a merry dance. The time was quite impressive too considering he carried a winning penalty and he can only have improved as a specimen since then.
Ruby Walsh gets the nod in the saddle and this excellent jumper who should relish soft ground can take advantage of the possibility that some of this line up will come here in need of the run.
It was tempting to side with my recent selection I'msingingtheblues who fell last time when running a decent race at Aintree in the Old Roan Chase. However he fell before it became a test and his confidence is bound to have been knocked for it so I did not need much convincing to leave him alone on this occasion.
I have taken a gamble and backed early with the 9-2 that William Hill have on offer for the event. Hopefully Tchico Polos will not drift now or I will feel slightly wasteful. However the only time I am able to bet tomorrow is lunchtime and it could possibly be a 7-2 chance by then. After all, this horse jumps pretty well and if given a lead will take a fair bit of catching in his favoured conditions.
Pundit Pointer:
2.35 - Tchico Polos (2pts 9-2 @ William Hill)
Monday, 1 November 2010
Blackpool vs West Brom - Goals Galore?
Decided to have a bet on the football tonight despite it being far from a creme-de-la-creme match awaiting us at Bloomfield Road this evening.
Both teams are not the best defensively so I am expecting goals - some more goals and then some more goals after that! However I am a bit gutless (or perhaps sensible) when I reserve my instincts to back the monstrosity of a scoreline 4-3 and such like.
I still believe goals will be the order of the day, but perhaps I keep mentioning the word goals in the hope it comes true! I do not like betting on how many goals go in as I find the odds of correct score results too tempting to dismiss.
Blackpool are far from perfect at home and they are yet to win this season on their own patch but they have scored a fair few. Meanwhile West Brom are surprisingly no strangers to the opposition net this season unlike previous forays into the top league of English football in recent times. The Baggies won both games against Blackpool last season 3-2 and before I even realised that statistic I had already placed a bet on that exact scoreline. SPOOKY! Surely it cannot happen again? Well perhaps it can't and thus the reason I have also had a tinker with a respectable 2-2 draw as well.
Pundit Prediction:
Correct Score
West Brom to win 3-2 (0.4pts @ 28-1 with Betfred)
Draw Result 2-2 (0.4pts @ 14-1 with Ladbrokes)
Both teams are not the best defensively so I am expecting goals - some more goals and then some more goals after that! However I am a bit gutless (or perhaps sensible) when I reserve my instincts to back the monstrosity of a scoreline 4-3 and such like.
I still believe goals will be the order of the day, but perhaps I keep mentioning the word goals in the hope it comes true! I do not like betting on how many goals go in as I find the odds of correct score results too tempting to dismiss.
Blackpool are far from perfect at home and they are yet to win this season on their own patch but they have scored a fair few. Meanwhile West Brom are surprisingly no strangers to the opposition net this season unlike previous forays into the top league of English football in recent times. The Baggies won both games against Blackpool last season 3-2 and before I even realised that statistic I had already placed a bet on that exact scoreline. SPOOKY! Surely it cannot happen again? Well perhaps it can't and thus the reason I have also had a tinker with a respectable 2-2 draw as well.
Pundit Prediction:
Correct Score
West Brom to win 3-2 (0.4pts @ 28-1 with Betfred)
Draw Result 2-2 (0.4pts @ 14-1 with Ladbrokes)
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