Saturday see's the first classic of the flat season take place with the 3yo colts all making an effort to become the expensive sires of the future. It looks a one horse race on paper, but is it?
Indeed St Nicholas Abbey has been hyped up galore since it demolished its rivals as a 2yo in the Racingpost Trophy at Doncaster. It was visually impressive and the price for this race became very short instantaneously. On the day it looks like he will be 6-4 or shorter, but with 15 rivals also gunning for victory surely that price is simply too short?
........So frustrated. Wrote an absolute stormer of a preview explaining why I had picked the value and dismissed some of the fancied runners. Not doing it again though sadly!
I know my own mind and so I simply have to state that my Guineas fancy is Inler and he is available at 28-1 on Betfair. I know he has only run once but this horse could be anything and alot of the other horses look held on form by St Nicholas Abbey. If this one manages to improve significantly for the step up in trip then big things can be expected come Saturday at a very nice price.
If you are unsure, then go to sportinglife and look at the horses debut run when it blitzed its maiden by 4 lengths without being asked a question. It also had a racecourse gallop the other week and murdered its 2 stablemates, one is entered in this race and the other won the other week in a handicap comfortably.
Definately not a horse to dismiss!
INLER - 28-1 on BETFAIR.
It could drift, it might not. I have not took the chance though and have backed it already as a precaution!
Friday, 30 April 2010
Wednesday, 28 April 2010
Ascot today
I was trying to find a bet for the Sagaro Stakes (Group 3) but could not find any value, despite some very decent runners in the field. Instead I have gone for a bet in the Listed sprint at 4.30 where Mon Cadeaux looked to be a very progressive horse at 6f last season on the galloping, testing track that is Salisbury so this Ascot 6f should be immediately up his street and he can take advantage of the other runners who suffer penalties for being winners of Listed and Group races as 2 year olds.
Interesting.
1.5pt bet put on at 5-1 with Victor Chandler
Interesting.
1.5pt bet put on at 5-1 with Victor Chandler
Saturday, 24 April 2010
Learned My Lesson
3.26PM:
Getting the feeling old habits are coming thick and fast though? Terrible. I have not had a 1st place for awhile now but having kept the discipline. This will be my last bet of the day as I hope BORDER PATROL can carry on improving as a 4yo after showing some very progressive form at 3. He won on his seasonable debut last year and if he can repeat that feat and put up a career best performance in the process then he could be one to consider for all the big mile races this coming season. 14-1 is available and that is slightly too big so I have punted it accordingly.
Confront and Paco Boy should win this on form but Paco Boy can get tired late on and something coming late could take this.
3.04PM:
Put Blazing Tempo in an outrageous longshot double with Fairoak Lad over at Sandown. Had a guy feeling, could be indigestion but you never know....
2.54PM:
Seems I have not learned my lesson and in the hope of gaining some kind of compensation from a shocking week at Punchestown I am heading back there for a bet on BLAZING TEMPO who is a ridiculous 20-1 with Skybet to win the Mares Hurdle. Its a decent field but ground concerns mean that some bookmakers have pushed this out to ridiculous odds. If trainer was so unhappy with the ground the horse would not be running so its a value bet. GOOD LUCK REQUIRED!
2.42PM:
Out of the scoop 6 and totally downbeat now. Someone like me must be Paul Nicholl's having just witnessed Twist Magic flop once again. He joins the ex-top class horses like Kauto Star and Denman who look like retirement is the best option but no doubt will be running as silly favourites all next year. Lucky layers!
2.13PM:
Well that was bad luck, horse was hampered and got abit ruffled by a horse that slipped over but would never have won in anycase. Luckily had the winner of the race in my scoop 6 so onwards to the 2nd leg at Ripon where I have LEWYN running for me. Overpriced alot at 9-1.
13.59PM:
Avoid Willie Mullins horses at Punchestown at your peril. Cost me a fortune by ignoring his prominent market runners this last week who pretty much all scooted home. Desperate!
But its back to a normal saturday and the flat season is beginning to take shape as the jumps come to an end.
I've had a scoop 6 bet today so excitement awaits (I will be out first leg) but for my diary I have to declare I have bet on CATCH BOB in the 2.00pm Sandown opener. 1pt to win.
Getting the feeling old habits are coming thick and fast though? Terrible. I have not had a 1st place for awhile now but having kept the discipline. This will be my last bet of the day as I hope BORDER PATROL can carry on improving as a 4yo after showing some very progressive form at 3. He won on his seasonable debut last year and if he can repeat that feat and put up a career best performance in the process then he could be one to consider for all the big mile races this coming season. 14-1 is available and that is slightly too big so I have punted it accordingly.
Confront and Paco Boy should win this on form but Paco Boy can get tired late on and something coming late could take this.
3.04PM:
Put Blazing Tempo in an outrageous longshot double with Fairoak Lad over at Sandown. Had a guy feeling, could be indigestion but you never know....
2.54PM:
Seems I have not learned my lesson and in the hope of gaining some kind of compensation from a shocking week at Punchestown I am heading back there for a bet on BLAZING TEMPO who is a ridiculous 20-1 with Skybet to win the Mares Hurdle. Its a decent field but ground concerns mean that some bookmakers have pushed this out to ridiculous odds. If trainer was so unhappy with the ground the horse would not be running so its a value bet. GOOD LUCK REQUIRED!
2.42PM:
Out of the scoop 6 and totally downbeat now. Someone like me must be Paul Nicholl's having just witnessed Twist Magic flop once again. He joins the ex-top class horses like Kauto Star and Denman who look like retirement is the best option but no doubt will be running as silly favourites all next year. Lucky layers!
2.13PM:
Well that was bad luck, horse was hampered and got abit ruffled by a horse that slipped over but would never have won in anycase. Luckily had the winner of the race in my scoop 6 so onwards to the 2nd leg at Ripon where I have LEWYN running for me. Overpriced alot at 9-1.
13.59PM:
Avoid Willie Mullins horses at Punchestown at your peril. Cost me a fortune by ignoring his prominent market runners this last week who pretty much all scooted home. Desperate!
But its back to a normal saturday and the flat season is beginning to take shape as the jumps come to an end.
I've had a scoop 6 bet today so excitement awaits (I will be out first leg) but for my diary I have to declare I have bet on CATCH BOB in the 2.00pm Sandown opener. 1pt to win.
Thursday, 22 April 2010
Punchestown Day 4 - Preview (Carnage Anticipated!)
Awful festival this is turning out to be for me. Apart from this being irish nonsense I find myself unable to get into the thick of the betting as I have no access to the betting patterns when they are at their most informative (just before the horses run to post) as I have work commitments. The other two festivals this season I've made sure I've had time off for and it's proven worthwhile so something I will have to adjust for next season, or simply not bet at all!
Running my eye over the formcard and past video's of horse performances the night before a race has little help in finding the winner if infact that horse you've selected wakes up in a nutcase mood (i.e. Twist Magic who refused to start on Tuesday).
Then after todays racing several trainers of horses that required fast ground were complaining as they felt the course had been overwatered causing it to be dead ground and favouring those who liked some juice. Had I been off work I could have adjusted my bets accordingly but not to be too downhearted I am having another push for Day Four and sticking with my policy of overpriced horses and bets in Grade 1's only.
There are two Grade 1's today, the Champion Hurdle and Champion Novice Hurdle. Both have some pretty decent runners in the field but negatives can be found for many.
In the last 9 years there has only been one shock in the Champion Hurdle here at Punchestown. Therefore I would be more inclined to stick with one of the market principles. However Dunguib who is the likely favourite is still a Novice and only one of those has managed to win this race in the last decade so there is no value in a bet like that. The other prominent market leader is Hurricane Fly but a 159 day absence completely disintegrates any possible interest for me at short odds.
Taking the two market leaders out of the equation leaves plenty of value and one interesting statistic that has popped up is the fact that out of the last 10 winners, 9 have finished in the first three last time out and all ten have had a run in the previous 50 days. Also 9 out of 10 were Grade 1 winners.
Which horse fits all these trends? Muirhead!
By suggesting him as a winner I expect I will be labelled a loon, after all he is 33-1 with Bluesquare. As an each way prospect he has so many positives. So many of these horses come into this out of form it is untrue and those to have recently raced in top class company have all been well down the field. Muirhead bypassed Cheltenham for Aintree and was a decent 2nd behind Kyber Kim and one place infront of Zaynar. That form puts him bang in the mix. Winner of a Grade 1 Novice and three times a runner up in other Grade 1's make this one an interesting contender. Fifth in a Cheltenham Champion Hurdle too last year on Good to Soft ground. On a ratings point of view the only two times the horse has encountered better than SOFT ground in his career he has achieved both of his best RPR's. 163 in the Champion Hurdle in 2009 and last time out when he got his favoured good ground finally and achieved a 161 rating behind Kyber Kim (2010 Champion Hurdle runner-up).
I am not saying this will definately win but 33-1 is absurd. No bigger than a 20-1 chance realistically and the place odds which I will mostly be concentrating on could be too big to ignore!
The next Grade One on the card is the Champion Novice Hurdle and Luska Lad to me looks the ideal horse to be backing. He falters on one of the major stats which says you need to have won at least over 2 miles 2 furlongs previously. He has never raced beyond two miles but they have all mostly been in heavy ground which shows the stamina is probably there. Also when having a deeper look into the horses background and breeding you will notice that his Sire Flemingsfirth is responsible for high class stayers such as Imperial Commander, Tidal Bay, Time For Rupert and Joe Lively so it could well be critical that this step up in trip is required to see the best of this horse.
7-2 I'll admit is not brilliant value considering this will be quicker than ideal ground but this horse is class and his record around right handed tracks is well above average. This is in comparison to the race favourite Reve Du Sivola who has NEVER raced on a right handed track. Ridiculous that it should be favourite for that reason alone! Another bookie scam I expect to fool the betting shop punters. Duke Of Lucca does deserve a mention but lacks the experience and a recent Aintree run may take enough steam out of his engine to compete at the very business end of the race as it was only 13 days ago.
Selections:
5.30 - Muirhead 2pts place at 7's on Betfair and 1pt WIN 33-1 with Bluesquare
6.05 - Luska Lad 2pt Win with Paddypower
Running my eye over the formcard and past video's of horse performances the night before a race has little help in finding the winner if infact that horse you've selected wakes up in a nutcase mood (i.e. Twist Magic who refused to start on Tuesday).
Then after todays racing several trainers of horses that required fast ground were complaining as they felt the course had been overwatered causing it to be dead ground and favouring those who liked some juice. Had I been off work I could have adjusted my bets accordingly but not to be too downhearted I am having another push for Day Four and sticking with my policy of overpriced horses and bets in Grade 1's only.
There are two Grade 1's today, the Champion Hurdle and Champion Novice Hurdle. Both have some pretty decent runners in the field but negatives can be found for many.
In the last 9 years there has only been one shock in the Champion Hurdle here at Punchestown. Therefore I would be more inclined to stick with one of the market principles. However Dunguib who is the likely favourite is still a Novice and only one of those has managed to win this race in the last decade so there is no value in a bet like that. The other prominent market leader is Hurricane Fly but a 159 day absence completely disintegrates any possible interest for me at short odds.
Taking the two market leaders out of the equation leaves plenty of value and one interesting statistic that has popped up is the fact that out of the last 10 winners, 9 have finished in the first three last time out and all ten have had a run in the previous 50 days. Also 9 out of 10 were Grade 1 winners.
Which horse fits all these trends? Muirhead!
By suggesting him as a winner I expect I will be labelled a loon, after all he is 33-1 with Bluesquare. As an each way prospect he has so many positives. So many of these horses come into this out of form it is untrue and those to have recently raced in top class company have all been well down the field. Muirhead bypassed Cheltenham for Aintree and was a decent 2nd behind Kyber Kim and one place infront of Zaynar. That form puts him bang in the mix. Winner of a Grade 1 Novice and three times a runner up in other Grade 1's make this one an interesting contender. Fifth in a Cheltenham Champion Hurdle too last year on Good to Soft ground. On a ratings point of view the only two times the horse has encountered better than SOFT ground in his career he has achieved both of his best RPR's. 163 in the Champion Hurdle in 2009 and last time out when he got his favoured good ground finally and achieved a 161 rating behind Kyber Kim (2010 Champion Hurdle runner-up).
I am not saying this will definately win but 33-1 is absurd. No bigger than a 20-1 chance realistically and the place odds which I will mostly be concentrating on could be too big to ignore!
The next Grade One on the card is the Champion Novice Hurdle and Luska Lad to me looks the ideal horse to be backing. He falters on one of the major stats which says you need to have won at least over 2 miles 2 furlongs previously. He has never raced beyond two miles but they have all mostly been in heavy ground which shows the stamina is probably there. Also when having a deeper look into the horses background and breeding you will notice that his Sire Flemingsfirth is responsible for high class stayers such as Imperial Commander, Tidal Bay, Time For Rupert and Joe Lively so it could well be critical that this step up in trip is required to see the best of this horse.
7-2 I'll admit is not brilliant value considering this will be quicker than ideal ground but this horse is class and his record around right handed tracks is well above average. This is in comparison to the race favourite Reve Du Sivola who has NEVER raced on a right handed track. Ridiculous that it should be favourite for that reason alone! Another bookie scam I expect to fool the betting shop punters. Duke Of Lucca does deserve a mention but lacks the experience and a recent Aintree run may take enough steam out of his engine to compete at the very business end of the race as it was only 13 days ago.
Selections:
5.30 - Muirhead 2pts place at 7's on Betfair and 1pt WIN 33-1 with Bluesquare
6.05 - Luska Lad 2pt Win with Paddypower
Added Bet for the 5.30 race
Willie Mullins' horse Cousin Vinny has been backed a little and I am using this as a 0.5pt cover for my drifting Nobel Prince fancy. Cousin Vinny fits alot of trends and back at Punchestown which will suit much better than Cheltenham this horse could very easily make the frame if on song.
Promising.
Usually yucky when I have three selections in a race though!
Promising.
Usually yucky when I have three selections in a race though!
Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Punchestown Day 3 - Preview
Day three of the festival see's two more Grade 1's take place and I am determined not to make the same mistakes as yesterday.
The World Series Hurdle over three miles and the Ryanair Novices Chase over two miles are the big events that make this an intriguing day.
No world beaters on show today, but there were none yesterday either as Denman failed for the third time in succession to win a race. Retire gracefully and stop chasing the money before you do some damage to the horse I would advise the connections, but no doubt it will carry on next season into an eleventh year of age.
For today the World Series Hurdle looks quite telling but I am simply concentrating on the bets that offer the most value at the prices on offer. I am not interested in what I think will win if it is not a value price.
The selections that fit the value angle in this race for me are Berties Dream and Noble Prince. Quevega makes her first attempt at three miles and fillies have a good record in this race but only 7-2 is available and those odds are too skinny for the chance she realistically has which I think is 4-1 (20%).
Berties Dream is interesting because he recently put in a career best effort when raised in trip to three miles to win at Cheltenham in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle. Some smart horses have won this in the past and they way this horse stayed on in that race showed that their is untapped potential with regards to stamina waiting in the tank. The three mile trip was clearly the making of this horse and the only worry for the Punchestown race is the fast ground. However it is likely to be heavily watered on Wednesday evening and could ride slightly slower than on Tuesday which will aid the horse to a hopeful victory. 18-1 available with Skybet is a massive price and I do not expect it to be above 12-1 at worst come race time. On my book it has a relatively decent 8-1 chance (11.1%).
The other horse I have ideas about for the World Series Hurdle is Noble Prince. He also attended Cheltenham but was given an impossible task racing over an inadequate two miles in the Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle. The horse put up a bold display but ultimately was not quick enough to challenge the lighter weighted two mile specialists. It is unknown as yet whether this horse can stay three miles however as on its only previous attempt it was headed with a furlong left. However with that run being in yielding ground I am content to have it amongst my picks as the conditions today will make it a fast run three miles where stamina may be less required.
With Planet Of Sound winning the Gold Cup yesterday on his first try over the three mile trip that lends some weight to the theory that under quick conditions proven stamina is not as essential as normal. After acknowledging this then Noble Prince becomes a pretty interesting proposition at 12-1. The realistic odds in my view of it winning are more like 13-2 (13.3%) so it has good reason to be bet on with improvement expected now the ground has turned good.
In the other Grade 1 of the day, the Ryanair Chase it looks another compelling heat of improving chasers but I have a clear fancy. Riverside Theatre is a stone cold win prospect after excelling itself at Cheltenham in the Arkle. This horse went into Cheltenham off the back of a 80+ day absence which is never ideal and got caught out by both the rain softened ground and the incredibly fast pace. It managed to improve late on and was running like a train late on but could only muster fifth place 8 1/2 lengths behind winner Sizing Europe. That run will have brought the horse on alot for this Punchestown attempt and luckily conditions have fallen absolutely perfect for it so despite 7-2 not offering too much likely winnings I think this horses chance of winning is closer to 2-1 (33.3%) and therefore makes it a very worthwhile bet.
So to recap:
Selections
5.30 -
BERTIES DREAM 1pt to WIN at 18-1 with Skybet
NOBLE PRINCE 1pt to WIN at 15-1 on Betfair - Lay for original stake at 3.4 inrunning
6.40 -
RIVERSIDE THEATRE 2pts to WIN at 7-2 with various bookmakers
The World Series Hurdle over three miles and the Ryanair Novices Chase over two miles are the big events that make this an intriguing day.
No world beaters on show today, but there were none yesterday either as Denman failed for the third time in succession to win a race. Retire gracefully and stop chasing the money before you do some damage to the horse I would advise the connections, but no doubt it will carry on next season into an eleventh year of age.
For today the World Series Hurdle looks quite telling but I am simply concentrating on the bets that offer the most value at the prices on offer. I am not interested in what I think will win if it is not a value price.
The selections that fit the value angle in this race for me are Berties Dream and Noble Prince. Quevega makes her first attempt at three miles and fillies have a good record in this race but only 7-2 is available and those odds are too skinny for the chance she realistically has which I think is 4-1 (20%).
Berties Dream is interesting because he recently put in a career best effort when raised in trip to three miles to win at Cheltenham in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle. Some smart horses have won this in the past and they way this horse stayed on in that race showed that their is untapped potential with regards to stamina waiting in the tank. The three mile trip was clearly the making of this horse and the only worry for the Punchestown race is the fast ground. However it is likely to be heavily watered on Wednesday evening and could ride slightly slower than on Tuesday which will aid the horse to a hopeful victory. 18-1 available with Skybet is a massive price and I do not expect it to be above 12-1 at worst come race time. On my book it has a relatively decent 8-1 chance (11.1%).
The other horse I have ideas about for the World Series Hurdle is Noble Prince. He also attended Cheltenham but was given an impossible task racing over an inadequate two miles in the Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle. The horse put up a bold display but ultimately was not quick enough to challenge the lighter weighted two mile specialists. It is unknown as yet whether this horse can stay three miles however as on its only previous attempt it was headed with a furlong left. However with that run being in yielding ground I am content to have it amongst my picks as the conditions today will make it a fast run three miles where stamina may be less required.
With Planet Of Sound winning the Gold Cup yesterday on his first try over the three mile trip that lends some weight to the theory that under quick conditions proven stamina is not as essential as normal. After acknowledging this then Noble Prince becomes a pretty interesting proposition at 12-1. The realistic odds in my view of it winning are more like 13-2 (13.3%) so it has good reason to be bet on with improvement expected now the ground has turned good.
In the other Grade 1 of the day, the Ryanair Chase it looks another compelling heat of improving chasers but I have a clear fancy. Riverside Theatre is a stone cold win prospect after excelling itself at Cheltenham in the Arkle. This horse went into Cheltenham off the back of a 80+ day absence which is never ideal and got caught out by both the rain softened ground and the incredibly fast pace. It managed to improve late on and was running like a train late on but could only muster fifth place 8 1/2 lengths behind winner Sizing Europe. That run will have brought the horse on alot for this Punchestown attempt and luckily conditions have fallen absolutely perfect for it so despite 7-2 not offering too much likely winnings I think this horses chance of winning is closer to 2-1 (33.3%) and therefore makes it a very worthwhile bet.
So to recap:
Selections
5.30 -
BERTIES DREAM 1pt to WIN at 18-1 with Skybet
NOBLE PRINCE 1pt to WIN at 15-1 on Betfair - Lay for original stake at 3.4 inrunning
6.40 -
RIVERSIDE THEATRE 2pts to WIN at 7-2 with various bookmakers
Diabolical bet selections once again
Watching the big race of day two at Punchestown left a sour taste as the Gold Cup went to Planet Of Sound who I did not place a bet on despite writing:
The other outsider to consider and one that very much interests me is PLANET OF SOUND. This is a former placed Cheltenham trying this trip for the first time. I am not sure it is capable of three miles but if he was to run to his Official Mark of 166 then that would bring him perfectly in line with a possible 80% Denman. With the good ground offering it would also not be as difficult to get the three mile trip so at 25-1 he has to be considered a chance, even if only to place.
Planet Of Sound
This blog was created so I would have the freedom to write my race thoughts and choose my bets wisely, yet still I make these stupid mistakes. Practice will make perfect but what irks is Planet Of Sound could be bet on 25-1 with Bookmakers in the morning and on Betfair as they went to post. I did not even put a few quid on it to cover my two other bets in the race, so I deserve what I got basically. Nothing!
And anyone reading who backed Denman then you deserve everything you got. He is no longer a serious threat in the major championships and needs to be aimed 100% at his targets. Paul Nicholl's showed no regard for his horse choosing this race for it to claim what he thought would be easy money. Too many things did not suit and for Denman to ever be successful in a big race again he will need his optimum conditions (Left handed, good to soft or softer ground and a galloping track).
Punchestown Festival - Day 2 (Denman to get beaten?)
It is a race worth its weight in gold and is the eventual race target for the big horse that is Denman. Ayr was the original target after the Gold Cup but the trainer Paul Nicholls stated that "good ground was not ideal and it would be withdrawn". Interesting that we are due to race today with Punchestown also being good and why has Nicholl's not withdrawn his charge? Because there is too much money on offer.
He wouldn't say it publicly but he must be of the opinion that he can get away with a 80% Denman winning this race but I have my doubts about that. We've already seen Denman ship his jockey McCoy out of the saddle at Newbury and despite an improved effort at Cheltenham this is back to a right handed track today and the moody horse may re-emerge. Would you be willing to take a gamble on a ten year old horse with a temperament on going it does not prefer and on a track direction it does not prefer? If you are willing then join the queue to bet on him at 13-8, otherwise read on....
Some interesting movements in the betting show clear support for RARE BOB in Ireland as Paddypower go only 18-1 about that rival winning when English bookmakers are mainly 33-1. It has already won at Punchestown before in a Grade One and two other chase races (disqualified from one) but you would imagine the improvement needed to win a race of this calibre is just too much. One for a place though and could even improve enough to win back on his favourite track.
The other outsider to consider and one that very much interests me is PLANET OF SOUND. This is a former placed Cheltenham trying this trip for the first time. I am not sure it is capable of three miles but if he was to run to his Official Mark of 166 then that would bring him perfectly in line with a possible 80% Denman. With the good ground offering it would also not be as difficult to get the three mile trip so at 25-1 he has to be considered a chance, even if only to place.
The other big gun considering Willie Mullins won all three Grade 1s on the opening day yesterday is Cooldine. Raced keenly in the Gold Cup and gave himself no chance but looked decent for 3/4 of the race before getting tired in the conditions (was declared good ground but persistant rain meant that it was clearly good/soft at best).
There is a chance the Willie Mullins bandwagon could continue and on home soil Cooldine may have the conditions to benefit him. Interesting that Ladbrokes only go 4-1 about Cooldine to win this, and as I often have to reiterate to people - who are the most successful bookmakers? Answer: Ladbrokes. Simple reason being is that their odds compilers rarely get it wrong and so they profit better than the competition!
I am abit bewildered by the race but have chosen my selections
Selection: COOLDINE to Win 1pt (11-2 with Bet365 and Paddypower)
Lay on Betfair inrunning at 2.8
also bet on RARE BOB 33-1 each way 0.5pts Win and 1.5pts Place (William Hill and Ladbrokes)
He wouldn't say it publicly but he must be of the opinion that he can get away with a 80% Denman winning this race but I have my doubts about that. We've already seen Denman ship his jockey McCoy out of the saddle at Newbury and despite an improved effort at Cheltenham this is back to a right handed track today and the moody horse may re-emerge. Would you be willing to take a gamble on a ten year old horse with a temperament on going it does not prefer and on a track direction it does not prefer? If you are willing then join the queue to bet on him at 13-8, otherwise read on....
Some interesting movements in the betting show clear support for RARE BOB in Ireland as Paddypower go only 18-1 about that rival winning when English bookmakers are mainly 33-1. It has already won at Punchestown before in a Grade One and two other chase races (disqualified from one) but you would imagine the improvement needed to win a race of this calibre is just too much. One for a place though and could even improve enough to win back on his favourite track.
The other outsider to consider and one that very much interests me is PLANET OF SOUND. This is a former placed Cheltenham trying this trip for the first time. I am not sure it is capable of three miles but if he was to run to his Official Mark of 166 then that would bring him perfectly in line with a possible 80% Denman. With the good ground offering it would also not be as difficult to get the three mile trip so at 25-1 he has to be considered a chance, even if only to place.
The other big gun considering Willie Mullins won all three Grade 1s on the opening day yesterday is Cooldine. Raced keenly in the Gold Cup and gave himself no chance but looked decent for 3/4 of the race before getting tired in the conditions (was declared good ground but persistant rain meant that it was clearly good/soft at best).
There is a chance the Willie Mullins bandwagon could continue and on home soil Cooldine may have the conditions to benefit him. Interesting that Ladbrokes only go 4-1 about Cooldine to win this, and as I often have to reiterate to people - who are the most successful bookmakers? Answer: Ladbrokes. Simple reason being is that their odds compilers rarely get it wrong and so they profit better than the competition!
I am abit bewildered by the race but have chosen my selections
Selection: COOLDINE to Win 1pt (11-2 with Bet365 and Paddypower)
Lay on Betfair inrunning at 2.8
also bet on RARE BOB 33-1 each way 0.5pts Win and 1.5pts Place (William Hill and Ladbrokes)
Tuesday, 20 April 2010
Almost a conundrum of catastrophes (Review Of Day 1)
Punchestown today was a meagre mess and highlighted the epiphany that this festival is subordinate to both Cheltenham and Aintree. Talking through my wallet you may jest? But no, somehow I profited!
I only studied the three Grade 1's for the opening day. I felt I had a value each way selection in the opener despite the lack of experience. Some Slam was my choice but it faded after leading them round for much of the way. I was not too disappointed with that as it was a risky bet and one which I would rather have than trying to follow up on General Miller at short odds who was to fail miserably in any case.
It was the horrendous run up to the Champion Chase that agitated me. I had put a hefty bet on Twist Magic to win at shortish odds, far shorter than I care for under normal circumstances. But I just felt the main contenders were not up to much and either lacked experience, confidence or form in the conditions so it was a bet I was willing to make. How disturbed though I looked as it kept being laid on Betfair for fun. 3.8 became 4.3, 4.5, 4.6... it didn't stop, 4.9, 5.2 and on and on. I was thinking to myself if this horse runs like a dog now then this is blatant bullshit. It carried on its drift out to 6.8 or so before claiming a brief fightback as Tony McCoy got ready at the start.
Then it was a matter of.... "They're OFF!" .....and where was Twist Magic?
Four Hooves PLANTED in the turf with his ears pricked and could be heard in horse language telling McCoy to "Get off my f**king back!"
A £65 bet lost in an instant, no returns as it was under orders. A woeful feeling of unrest jostled inside me as I wanted to get my money back. I felt frustrated but decided not to touch the race inrunning. Probably a wise decision as I may have ended up betting on one of the race favourites when it was a marginal outsider that did prove best in Golden Silver. A very smart horse on his day but in my mind had little chance due to the fast ground. Must have been the combination of below par rivals and just enough juice in the ground that made it prosper.
By 7.05pm I was not holding out much hope. For I was on a run now of around 10 or 11 consecutive losers since Saturday. The Midnight Club I had stuck a simple straight £20 on it to win. Quite keen on its chance of getting the trip and exposing its opponents on the quickish ground. I had also put a £25 bet on China Rock who was 7.6 on the exchanges and a horse I was 100% certain would not last the 3 mile trip. I had advised a bet on it at 1PT and then lay absolutely everything off at 1.6. I stuck to this and watched the horse go clear round the home turn but worried I was not as it reached 1.22 inrunning before being set upon by Kempes who powered through as China Rock ran out of gas. Phew! Thank you, £150 was needed. If nothing else then it has restored some confidence in my betting and given me a bit of time to get the next big winner that I crave.
A quick word for Zaarito though, what a disgusting piece of training to enter a horse in a GRADE 1 simply to hack round at the back trying to build it's confidence for jumping. The horse had fallen 3 times previously, each time when running against high class opponents in Grade 1 company, so it was bereft that they decided this time to hold the horse up well out the back away from traffic and never actually challenge. Pure filth! At least mine did not run so I did not have to go through the pain of watching it simply not being put in the race by its rider!
In current form I think I should stick to this betting to lose technique but make sure I am laying at short odds inrunning for absolutely everything, my stake, my profit, the lot! It worked today, but its a risky strategy only the very shrewd can succeed at. I think I'll just go back to trying to find the winners now and count myself very fortunate on Day 1 to make any sort of profit from my bets.
I only studied the three Grade 1's for the opening day. I felt I had a value each way selection in the opener despite the lack of experience. Some Slam was my choice but it faded after leading them round for much of the way. I was not too disappointed with that as it was a risky bet and one which I would rather have than trying to follow up on General Miller at short odds who was to fail miserably in any case.
It was the horrendous run up to the Champion Chase that agitated me. I had put a hefty bet on Twist Magic to win at shortish odds, far shorter than I care for under normal circumstances. But I just felt the main contenders were not up to much and either lacked experience, confidence or form in the conditions so it was a bet I was willing to make. How disturbed though I looked as it kept being laid on Betfair for fun. 3.8 became 4.3, 4.5, 4.6... it didn't stop, 4.9, 5.2 and on and on. I was thinking to myself if this horse runs like a dog now then this is blatant bullshit. It carried on its drift out to 6.8 or so before claiming a brief fightback as Tony McCoy got ready at the start.
Then it was a matter of.... "They're OFF!" .....and where was Twist Magic?
Four Hooves PLANTED in the turf with his ears pricked and could be heard in horse language telling McCoy to "Get off my f**king back!"
A £65 bet lost in an instant, no returns as it was under orders. A woeful feeling of unrest jostled inside me as I wanted to get my money back. I felt frustrated but decided not to touch the race inrunning. Probably a wise decision as I may have ended up betting on one of the race favourites when it was a marginal outsider that did prove best in Golden Silver. A very smart horse on his day but in my mind had little chance due to the fast ground. Must have been the combination of below par rivals and just enough juice in the ground that made it prosper.
By 7.05pm I was not holding out much hope. For I was on a run now of around 10 or 11 consecutive losers since Saturday. The Midnight Club I had stuck a simple straight £20 on it to win. Quite keen on its chance of getting the trip and exposing its opponents on the quickish ground. I had also put a £25 bet on China Rock who was 7.6 on the exchanges and a horse I was 100% certain would not last the 3 mile trip. I had advised a bet on it at 1PT and then lay absolutely everything off at 1.6. I stuck to this and watched the horse go clear round the home turn but worried I was not as it reached 1.22 inrunning before being set upon by Kempes who powered through as China Rock ran out of gas. Phew! Thank you, £150 was needed. If nothing else then it has restored some confidence in my betting and given me a bit of time to get the next big winner that I crave.
A quick word for Zaarito though, what a disgusting piece of training to enter a horse in a GRADE 1 simply to hack round at the back trying to build it's confidence for jumping. The horse had fallen 3 times previously, each time when running against high class opponents in Grade 1 company, so it was bereft that they decided this time to hold the horse up well out the back away from traffic and never actually challenge. Pure filth! At least mine did not run so I did not have to go through the pain of watching it simply not being put in the race by its rider!
In current form I think I should stick to this betting to lose technique but make sure I am laying at short odds inrunning for absolutely everything, my stake, my profit, the lot! It worked today, but its a risky strategy only the very shrewd can succeed at. I think I'll just go back to trying to find the winners now and count myself very fortunate on Day 1 to make any sort of profit from my bets.
Twist Magic added to my bets!
Added a 2PT bet after much deliberation on TWIST MAGIC to win the Champion Chase at 6.05pm Punchestown.
Already a previous winner of this race I just feel the 16-5 odds available at Sportingbet are marginally too good to refuse.
The horse acts very well on good ground and has won THREE GRADE 1 races in those conditions. Interesting I have looked through the opposition and NOT ONE of them have won a Grade 1 when the ground has been GOOD.
Twist Magic is very quirky and excels on flat tracks more so than undulating ones like this but a previous win in identical conditions here helps absorb that slight negative.
Already a previous winner of this race I just feel the 16-5 odds available at Sportingbet are marginally too good to refuse.
The horse acts very well on good ground and has won THREE GRADE 1 races in those conditions. Interesting I have looked through the opposition and NOT ONE of them have won a Grade 1 when the ground has been GOOD.
Twist Magic is very quirky and excels on flat tracks more so than undulating ones like this but a previous win in identical conditions here helps absorb that slight negative.
Monday, 19 April 2010
Punchestown - Day 1 Preview
Not been a good few days. Lacked the discipline required to be successful on Saturday and my three picks since then have all fallen by the wayside so it is important to stop the losing trend now.
The positive is that this is a big festival meeting and both Cheltenham and Aintree consisted of a few good priced winners for me so I'm quite optimistic that I may scoop a couple of big ones at this meeting too. It lasts until Saturday though so I won't be doing too many bets this time around. Most likely will stick to the Group 1 races and ignore the handicaps altogether, but we shall see!
4.20 - Champion Novice Hurdle
General Miller makes a relatively quick reappearance in this after beating Supreme Novice Hurdle winner Menorah last time at Aintree. It was a tasty price that day though but is a clear favourite for this at just 6-4. This is probably an accurate price considering this is the weakest renewal of this race for many years. General Miller will have to overcome that tough gruelling Aintree duel with Menorah which took place just 11 days previously. Is that a long enough gap to be back at 100%? My answer is definately not. However you have to consider that does General Miller have to be 100% to beat this lot? My answer is probably not. However to beat my selection I would think General Miller will have to be at 85%-90% and so I will take my chance on Some Slam.
This horse lacks the experience but looks to be heading in the right direction. Its a free-running front runner that will make the race a test for the rest on what should be quickish ground. Some Slam beat the useful benchmark Fingal Rock last time easily and that runner went on to obliterate a Grade 3 field next time out. That is useful form and improvement on its last run is almost guaranteed. It has to be said to beat General Miller it will have to improve quite markedly but as stated the latter may not be at 100% as they seem to be trying to sneak this race in before the end of the season. Some Slam meanwhile looks to have been prepped with this race being the main aim and a 41 day break will do him the world of good.
Its also worth noting that last time the horse jumped right handed at Naas so it is a positive that Punchestown is a right handed track.
A decent each way bet awaits at 12-1.
6.40 - Champion Novice Chase
The Midnight Club appears on paper to have this race set up for him. I think its paramount that for a horse to win this race they need to have won already over three miles. Using that as a rule of thumb removes plenty of the leading candidates here. The selection ran over an inadequate distance at Cheltenham but stayed on takingly. There is no value here as everyone noticed it that day but if I was asked for the most likely winner over 3m 1f on good ground then I would have to say it is this one.
One interesting race tactic betting wise could be to back China Rock and then lay him inrunning for profit. Will no doubt challenge at some stage but when previously tried over 3 miles he managed to get infront late on before tiring with 2 furlongs left. Same thing should occur in this race but he will only be beaten after he has traded at odds on! So could be a profitable back to lay maneuvre.
DAY 1 Selections:
4.20 - Some Slam 1pt WIN 0.5pts PLACE (12-1 with various bookmakers)
6.40 - The Midnight Club 1pt WIN (11-4 with various bookmakers)
6.40 - China Rock 1pt WIN (6-1) and lay IT LIKE THERE IS NO TOMORROW at 1.6 inrunning
Hope I made myself clear.
And yes, I do know there is a third GRADE 1 race on the card on the opening day but it is too tough to call and in my current form I would probably choose the wrong one in anycase!
The positive is that this is a big festival meeting and both Cheltenham and Aintree consisted of a few good priced winners for me so I'm quite optimistic that I may scoop a couple of big ones at this meeting too. It lasts until Saturday though so I won't be doing too many bets this time around. Most likely will stick to the Group 1 races and ignore the handicaps altogether, but we shall see!
4.20 - Champion Novice Hurdle
General Miller makes a relatively quick reappearance in this after beating Supreme Novice Hurdle winner Menorah last time at Aintree. It was a tasty price that day though but is a clear favourite for this at just 6-4. This is probably an accurate price considering this is the weakest renewal of this race for many years. General Miller will have to overcome that tough gruelling Aintree duel with Menorah which took place just 11 days previously. Is that a long enough gap to be back at 100%? My answer is definately not. However you have to consider that does General Miller have to be 100% to beat this lot? My answer is probably not. However to beat my selection I would think General Miller will have to be at 85%-90% and so I will take my chance on Some Slam.
This horse lacks the experience but looks to be heading in the right direction. Its a free-running front runner that will make the race a test for the rest on what should be quickish ground. Some Slam beat the useful benchmark Fingal Rock last time easily and that runner went on to obliterate a Grade 3 field next time out. That is useful form and improvement on its last run is almost guaranteed. It has to be said to beat General Miller it will have to improve quite markedly but as stated the latter may not be at 100% as they seem to be trying to sneak this race in before the end of the season. Some Slam meanwhile looks to have been prepped with this race being the main aim and a 41 day break will do him the world of good.
Its also worth noting that last time the horse jumped right handed at Naas so it is a positive that Punchestown is a right handed track.
A decent each way bet awaits at 12-1.
6.40 - Champion Novice Chase
The Midnight Club appears on paper to have this race set up for him. I think its paramount that for a horse to win this race they need to have won already over three miles. Using that as a rule of thumb removes plenty of the leading candidates here. The selection ran over an inadequate distance at Cheltenham but stayed on takingly. There is no value here as everyone noticed it that day but if I was asked for the most likely winner over 3m 1f on good ground then I would have to say it is this one.
One interesting race tactic betting wise could be to back China Rock and then lay him inrunning for profit. Will no doubt challenge at some stage but when previously tried over 3 miles he managed to get infront late on before tiring with 2 furlongs left. Same thing should occur in this race but he will only be beaten after he has traded at odds on! So could be a profitable back to lay maneuvre.
DAY 1 Selections:
4.20 - Some Slam 1pt WIN 0.5pts PLACE (12-1 with various bookmakers)
6.40 - The Midnight Club 1pt WIN (11-4 with various bookmakers)
6.40 - China Rock 1pt WIN (6-1) and lay IT LIKE THERE IS NO TOMORROW at 1.6 inrunning
Hope I made myself clear.
And yes, I do know there is a third GRADE 1 race on the card on the opening day but it is too tough to call and in my current form I would probably choose the wrong one in anycase!
Speculative Punt at Pontefract
The Punchestown Festival begins tomorrow and looks like being another classy few days of racing. Alot of horses that have recovered from Cheltenham and some from Aintree will be taking their chance. It looks like a few favourites may be turned over but that is for tomorrow, Pontefract is for today!
There is a marathon race on at Pontefract for low graded flat horses. Sounds like a terrible race to have a bet on and I am in the middle of a poor run having not found a winner over the last 2 days.
Here I am keen on the horse Pocket Too ridden by Kirsty Milczarek. Now only rated 62 on the flat after being rated 78 just two seasons ago it has been given a chance by the handicapper. The selection has showed improved form over hurdles of late and the trainer travels from Berkshire with the horse to be here today where as all the other entrants are locally trained. The horse has also won for Kirsty a couple of times previously and they look set to go close again at decent odds.
The horse appears to be a good stayer from its hurdling experiences so should at least still be in the mix come the finish.
Selection: Pocket Too 1pt Win (3.40)
There is a marathon race on at Pontefract for low graded flat horses. Sounds like a terrible race to have a bet on and I am in the middle of a poor run having not found a winner over the last 2 days.
Here I am keen on the horse Pocket Too ridden by Kirsty Milczarek. Now only rated 62 on the flat after being rated 78 just two seasons ago it has been given a chance by the handicapper. The selection has showed improved form over hurdles of late and the trainer travels from Berkshire with the horse to be here today where as all the other entrants are locally trained. The horse has also won for Kirsty a couple of times previously and they look set to go close again at decent odds.
The horse appears to be a good stayer from its hurdling experiences so should at least still be in the mix come the finish.
Selection: Pocket Too 1pt Win (3.40)
Sunday, 18 April 2010
Well at least I was on it before the gamble
Gan Amhras was 14-1 with Ladbrokes before being gambled in across the board into 11-2SP. Still lost mind! Story of my weekend.
One race left for me then and its a bet on Famour Warrior who has the benefit of a recent run which could be the telling difference here.
I'm due a winner...... that's all I will say. 7-1 on Betfair is a huge price.
4.10 Leopardstown
One race left for me then and its a bet on Famour Warrior who has the benefit of a recent run which could be the telling difference here.
I'm due a winner...... that's all I will say. 7-1 on Betfair is a huge price.
4.10 Leopardstown
Hungover but still healthy enough to switch on PC for a bet
.....just!
Don't have a clue what I am going to bet on. I know that I just managed to eat some boiled ham and a buttered muffin with some ravioli and cordial orange to swill it down with. Lovely jubbly!
Brain food is important for placing a bet and todays bet could be well off the mark as were all of yesterdays but in the 3.35 Group 3 at Leopardstown over a mile Gan Amhras makes a quick reappearance after racing down the field last week. This horse is rated 117 and is a 14-1 shot today. A quick look through the 6 runners shows you that the favourite for the race is 1-2 odds and also rated 117. Now excuse me for saying VALUE ALERT! The two horses form may be totally different but Official Ratings don't lie when it comes to Group runners so I'm getting on as there is no chance a 117 rated horse should be above 5-1 for a race like this.
Lets get drunk betting!!
Don't have a clue what I am going to bet on. I know that I just managed to eat some boiled ham and a buttered muffin with some ravioli and cordial orange to swill it down with. Lovely jubbly!
Brain food is important for placing a bet and todays bet could be well off the mark as were all of yesterdays but in the 3.35 Group 3 at Leopardstown over a mile Gan Amhras makes a quick reappearance after racing down the field last week. This horse is rated 117 and is a 14-1 shot today. A quick look through the 6 runners shows you that the favourite for the race is 1-2 odds and also rated 117. Now excuse me for saying VALUE ALERT! The two horses form may be totally different but Official Ratings don't lie when it comes to Group runners so I'm getting on as there is no chance a 117 rated horse should be above 5-1 for a race like this.
Lets get drunk betting!!
Saturday, 17 April 2010
Whats that flying out of the window.....?
Is it a monster?
No, its my discipline!
Drew a total blank today, some perculiar run races and some bad luck doubled up to give me a blank returns day (don't happen often).
However I am placing one last bet and it will require alot of luck as its a reverse forecast on a 2 mile handicap chase at Ayr (4.30).
I'm Delilah I have paired up with Pepsyrock who won this race last year. There should be an abundance of pace on here and I'm hoping these two chasing the pace can take advantage if the leaders go too fast.
Fingers firmly crossed!
No, its my discipline!
Drew a total blank today, some perculiar run races and some bad luck doubled up to give me a blank returns day (don't happen often).
However I am placing one last bet and it will require alot of luck as its a reverse forecast on a 2 mile handicap chase at Ayr (4.30).
I'm Delilah I have paired up with Pepsyrock who won this race last year. There should be an abundance of pace on here and I'm hoping these two chasing the pace can take advantage if the leaders go too fast.
Fingers firmly crossed!
Lets line up the bets for Saturday....
Football:
Tough one to call the City vs United derby game. Looking at the teams then Man Utd will have an obvious weakness with Gary Neville starting and asked to mark the pacy whippet that is Craig Bellamy. On the other side of the coin there is a fitness lacking Wayne Bridge with the responsibility of taking care of Antonio Valencia so both sides do have a big weakness in their back lines.
As for midfield, Man Utd have gone for experience with Scholes and Giggs forming part of the set up. Fletcher will be asked to mop up the City attacks to let Scholes and Gibson rome around but this could be tactical suicide and could leave Man Utd open to a swift counter attack.
Looks dangerous to predict a result with this one so I may just go for the scores that retain some value and cover on a draw result.
Selections:
2-1 Man City 0.5pts 14-1 (Betfair)
3-2 Man Utd 0.5pts 28-1 (Betfair)
DRAW 0.5pts 5-2 (Boylesports)
Horse Racing:
Todays racing as previously stated is very competitive and high class.
First additional bet of today is to bet on Gone To Lunch for the Scottish Grand National to go with my earlier Antepost Mobaasher bet. I am adding Gone To Lunch to my other selected runner as it fits the trends slightly better and still appears some value with Bet365 at 12-1. Was a very close 2nd last year when carrying 11st 10lb and this year due to the high class renewal it carries under 11st which can only benefit the horse in running a good race.
Eradicate in the Scottish Champion Hurdle looks increasingly interesting. Admittedly the odds on offer are not actually a value price (7-1) but this horse to me has all the traits of a Scottish National winner. He has been kept very fresh for this race and is an improved horse after a wind operation was successful last summer. Barry Geraghty has chosen it as his ride above a pretty useful sort in First Point so it appears to be all systems go for an attempt at this big prize. Its a very strong positive that the horse only has to carry a small weight here as it is a horse that appreciates light loads. The worry is Gloucester who has been backed markedly in the betting for this race, but that is still yet to win a handicap hurdle and has had many attempts to do so, therefore its definately not a value bet at the 6-1 on offer and can be dismissed on that basis.
Back over at Newbury some very exciting races take place. One of serious value in the Dubai Duty Free Stakes 2.00pm is Traffic Guard. This horse brings established form to the table and despite being 6 year of age has not regressed one bit. As a 4 year old he managed a close 2nd behind multiple G1 winner New Approach over 10f. The 12f trip proved no problem late last season at Windsor when the horse ran out a very easy winner. This is a more galloping track but conditions look perfect and if the horse is fresh then it could be bang there at the finish. Its 11-1 to find out and I am content to pay the odds to do so!
In the 2.35 handicap some of my favourite progressing young horses make an appearance but it is a very competitive race and in such a big field I cannot be guarenteed to being successful. However the bare facts make Wannabe King a ultra fantastic price based on its Ripon form from last season. The horse looked a serious Group race performer that day as it routed it's rivals from a bad draw. A repeat of that performance and it will be bang in the mix today from a massive double figure price. The other two worth noting in the field are Extraterrestrial who has a very useful 7lb claimer aboard. He has top form and is a previous winner of this event. Most likely a place prospect though in reality this year. Last of my three possible interests is Mull Of Killough who I bet on last time and was pleased with despite it only coming third. Today is should be more race fit and improvement can be expected on this more suitable going. Nice chances all three in my view.
In the 3.05pm filly Dubai Duty Free Stakes Group 3 at Newbury one of the most facile winners I had pleasure in watching from last season re-appears. Lady Of The Desert At York in a Group 2 this horse looked a class above over the 6f trip. It was put in its place next time by a supremely talented Special Duty but a year old this progressive type has been targetted at this race on the path to bigger and greater things later in the season. Definately a horse to follow and available at 15-8 to bet today which despite being short is still very good value.
Selections:
Traffic Guard 12-1 (Betfair) (2.00) Newbury
Wannabe King 50-1 (Betfair) and Mull Of Killough 8-1 (2.35) Newbury
Eradicate 7-1 (2.45) Ayr
Lady Of The Desert 15-8 (3.05) Newbury
Mobaasher 20-1 and Gone To Lunch 12-1 (3.25) Ayr
Tough one to call the City vs United derby game. Looking at the teams then Man Utd will have an obvious weakness with Gary Neville starting and asked to mark the pacy whippet that is Craig Bellamy. On the other side of the coin there is a fitness lacking Wayne Bridge with the responsibility of taking care of Antonio Valencia so both sides do have a big weakness in their back lines.
As for midfield, Man Utd have gone for experience with Scholes and Giggs forming part of the set up. Fletcher will be asked to mop up the City attacks to let Scholes and Gibson rome around but this could be tactical suicide and could leave Man Utd open to a swift counter attack.
Looks dangerous to predict a result with this one so I may just go for the scores that retain some value and cover on a draw result.
Selections:
2-1 Man City 0.5pts 14-1 (Betfair)
3-2 Man Utd 0.5pts 28-1 (Betfair)
DRAW 0.5pts 5-2 (Boylesports)
Horse Racing:
Todays racing as previously stated is very competitive and high class.
First additional bet of today is to bet on Gone To Lunch for the Scottish Grand National to go with my earlier Antepost Mobaasher bet. I am adding Gone To Lunch to my other selected runner as it fits the trends slightly better and still appears some value with Bet365 at 12-1. Was a very close 2nd last year when carrying 11st 10lb and this year due to the high class renewal it carries under 11st which can only benefit the horse in running a good race.
Eradicate in the Scottish Champion Hurdle looks increasingly interesting. Admittedly the odds on offer are not actually a value price (7-1) but this horse to me has all the traits of a Scottish National winner. He has been kept very fresh for this race and is an improved horse after a wind operation was successful last summer. Barry Geraghty has chosen it as his ride above a pretty useful sort in First Point so it appears to be all systems go for an attempt at this big prize. Its a very strong positive that the horse only has to carry a small weight here as it is a horse that appreciates light loads. The worry is Gloucester who has been backed markedly in the betting for this race, but that is still yet to win a handicap hurdle and has had many attempts to do so, therefore its definately not a value bet at the 6-1 on offer and can be dismissed on that basis.
Back over at Newbury some very exciting races take place. One of serious value in the Dubai Duty Free Stakes 2.00pm is Traffic Guard. This horse brings established form to the table and despite being 6 year of age has not regressed one bit. As a 4 year old he managed a close 2nd behind multiple G1 winner New Approach over 10f. The 12f trip proved no problem late last season at Windsor when the horse ran out a very easy winner. This is a more galloping track but conditions look perfect and if the horse is fresh then it could be bang there at the finish. Its 11-1 to find out and I am content to pay the odds to do so!
In the 2.35 handicap some of my favourite progressing young horses make an appearance but it is a very competitive race and in such a big field I cannot be guarenteed to being successful. However the bare facts make Wannabe King a ultra fantastic price based on its Ripon form from last season. The horse looked a serious Group race performer that day as it routed it's rivals from a bad draw. A repeat of that performance and it will be bang in the mix today from a massive double figure price. The other two worth noting in the field are Extraterrestrial who has a very useful 7lb claimer aboard. He has top form and is a previous winner of this event. Most likely a place prospect though in reality this year. Last of my three possible interests is Mull Of Killough who I bet on last time and was pleased with despite it only coming third. Today is should be more race fit and improvement can be expected on this more suitable going. Nice chances all three in my view.
In the 3.05pm filly Dubai Duty Free Stakes Group 3 at Newbury one of the most facile winners I had pleasure in watching from last season re-appears. Lady Of The Desert At York in a Group 2 this horse looked a class above over the 6f trip. It was put in its place next time by a supremely talented Special Duty but a year old this progressive type has been targetted at this race on the path to bigger and greater things later in the season. Definately a horse to follow and available at 15-8 to bet today which despite being short is still very good value.
Selections:
Traffic Guard 12-1 (Betfair) (2.00) Newbury
Wannabe King 50-1 (Betfair) and Mull Of Killough 8-1 (2.35) Newbury
Eradicate 7-1 (2.45) Ayr
Lady Of The Desert 15-8 (3.05) Newbury
Mobaasher 20-1 and Gone To Lunch 12-1 (3.25) Ayr
Friday, 16 April 2010
Saturday Sport Preview
Biggest sporting event this weekend is arguably the Manchester Derby. As with all my football betting selections I don't like to speak my mind until I have seen the teamsheet and I will not be changing my mind for this game.
As for the horse racing I have only got one bet lined up at the moment and thats my previously stated bet on Mobaasher for the Ayr Scottish Grand National. Which is currently available at around 20-1 in some places. Exceptional value for a horse that could very well stay the whole 4m 1f race.
I've not spent too much time looking at the Scottish Champion Hurdle but it looks quite an interesting Grade 2 handicap. Last years winner reappears and is a big price but I've not looked at the form in depth yet to project my selection publicly.
There are also a couple of tidy Group 3 races over at Newbury to add to the mix and make the whole day very interesting should I be able to decide on the right combo of bets.
First things first though, with my forthcoming trip to Chester races on the way I need to go to town and buy a suit in the morning. A cheap one obviously, but one that I can wear at least a dozen times before it falls apart at the seams. Left the last suit back in Cheltenham last month. Seems a waste to leave it there but they never "found" it apparently. Some offspring of the hotel manager probably had a car boot recently, thieving ba$tards!
...I'm going to disappear now and watch the latest episode of The Ultimate Fighter. Thats another discipline I like to have a sneaky bet on. There is an easy formula to finding the winner, just bet on the toughest fella! Not rocket science is it?
As for the horse racing I have only got one bet lined up at the moment and thats my previously stated bet on Mobaasher for the Ayr Scottish Grand National. Which is currently available at around 20-1 in some places. Exceptional value for a horse that could very well stay the whole 4m 1f race.
I've not spent too much time looking at the Scottish Champion Hurdle but it looks quite an interesting Grade 2 handicap. Last years winner reappears and is a big price but I've not looked at the form in depth yet to project my selection publicly.
There are also a couple of tidy Group 3 races over at Newbury to add to the mix and make the whole day very interesting should I be able to decide on the right combo of bets.
First things first though, with my forthcoming trip to Chester races on the way I need to go to town and buy a suit in the morning. A cheap one obviously, but one that I can wear at least a dozen times before it falls apart at the seams. Left the last suit back in Cheltenham last month. Seems a waste to leave it there but they never "found" it apparently. Some offspring of the hotel manager probably had a car boot recently, thieving ba$tards!
...I'm going to disappear now and watch the latest episode of The Ultimate Fighter. Thats another discipline I like to have a sneaky bet on. There is an easy formula to finding the winner, just bet on the toughest fella! Not rocket science is it?
Paramedics required in Coral....
Cream rises to the top as they say and tonights blog bet Gentle Ranger did the business at a 15-2SP. What on earth are people betting on? This was value at 7-1 as it was a 4-1 chance in my mind so ridiculous that it drifted slightly! Nevermind, I never complain when value is about.
Paramedics were indeed rushed to the local Coral bookies after a punter (who NEVER wins when he bets on anything I tell him to) ran into some money by backing the advised selection and collapsed on the floor in shock.
That hopefully will keep him off my back for a few weeks as he fails to realise that I win loads, he just seems to back everything that doesn't win normally! First time for everything though.
On an unlucky note, I did as I suggested and left an inrunning bet at 20-1. Amazingly despite never being headed by a rival it reached 14-1 inrunning! Strange how people bet, but because I'd been slightly too greedy I never got matched at my requested odds. Nearly though! Still won well over a ton so adds to the nice ton and a bit I won on Wednesday with Duc De Regniere.
Cheltenham rocked this year, probably had 10 course winners in 2010! I'd have to look through every race run though to find the exact figure, but I bet I'm not a mile out!
Paramedics were indeed rushed to the local Coral bookies after a punter (who NEVER wins when he bets on anything I tell him to) ran into some money by backing the advised selection and collapsed on the floor in shock.
That hopefully will keep him off my back for a few weeks as he fails to realise that I win loads, he just seems to back everything that doesn't win normally! First time for everything though.
On an unlucky note, I did as I suggested and left an inrunning bet at 20-1. Amazingly despite never being headed by a rival it reached 14-1 inrunning! Strange how people bet, but because I'd been slightly too greedy I never got matched at my requested odds. Nearly though! Still won well over a ton so adds to the nice ton and a bit I won on Wednesday with Duc De Regniere.
Cheltenham rocked this year, probably had 10 course winners in 2010! I'd have to look through every race run though to find the exact figure, but I bet I'm not a mile out!
One more go. It is Cheltenham after all...
Gentle Ranger runs this evening at 7.20pm and I've studied the form enough to know that if it stays on its feet (it fell last time) it has a great chance of beating some really average rivals in this marathon race. It will be topweight but has the size to deal with such a task and is interesting at quite decent odds of 7-1. Will take them along and make sure the pace is a decent one. I am looking to see if I can get a big odds bet inrunning as it will likely be challenged at some stage and could reach nice odds inrunning....
we shall see.
I have put double on it to win that I have to place. Equivalent of 1.5pts and 0.75pts of my bank.
we shall see.
I have put double on it to win that I have to place. Equivalent of 1.5pts and 0.75pts of my bank.
Ayr runner catches the eye for Friday...
***1PM Edit: Be wary of the selection Laskari below. It has suffered an enormous drift on the exchanges and looks like something is amiss. Unlikely connections will pull it out of the race so might be best to avoid altogether***
The 3.25 2m 4f handicap chase see's Chaninbar return to try and take advantage of an automated penalty he has gained for winning by a country mile at Aintree just 8 days previously. He was my very fortunate 25-1 winner at Aintree when I backed him at the last minute having remembered some things Ben Hutton of the Racingpost had said about the expected price being too big for his chance and indeed that proved so as he waltzed home infront alone.
However for this race, despite being 8lb well in as his official mark is due to go up in the forthcoming days I am not as keen. Its one of those, would you bet the same amount on a horse that's just won at 25-1 for you and is now going to be just 3-1 for a tougher race? I think not, though some numpties do!
Looking through the field there is one runner that has caught my eye and will find conditions ideal in this race. Laskari despite being quite old at 11 is the one I am considering to be of interest. A left handed track, 2m 4f, likely strong pace and good ground are all big positives . Trainer Paul Webber has purposely kept the horse off the track over winter with the terrible ground on offer but with a fitness gaining run behind it from last month improvement is very possible which will make it a big contender for this race.
I am more hopeful than confident but if 12-1 can be sought anywhere or close to that, its worth a small bet.
Interesting.
No stake is advised as I have not decided the amount I will be betting yet (I will update this when I have bet on it)
The 3.25 2m 4f handicap chase see's Chaninbar return to try and take advantage of an automated penalty he has gained for winning by a country mile at Aintree just 8 days previously. He was my very fortunate 25-1 winner at Aintree when I backed him at the last minute having remembered some things Ben Hutton of the Racingpost had said about the expected price being too big for his chance and indeed that proved so as he waltzed home infront alone.
However for this race, despite being 8lb well in as his official mark is due to go up in the forthcoming days I am not as keen. Its one of those, would you bet the same amount on a horse that's just won at 25-1 for you and is now going to be just 3-1 for a tougher race? I think not, though some numpties do!
Looking through the field there is one runner that has caught my eye and will find conditions ideal in this race. Laskari despite being quite old at 11 is the one I am considering to be of interest. A left handed track, 2m 4f, likely strong pace and good ground are all big positives . Trainer Paul Webber has purposely kept the horse off the track over winter with the terrible ground on offer but with a fitness gaining run behind it from last month improvement is very possible which will make it a big contender for this race.
I am more hopeful than confident but if 12-1 can be sought anywhere or close to that, its worth a small bet.
Interesting.
No stake is advised as I have not decided the amount I will be betting yet (I will update this when I have bet on it)
Thursday, 15 April 2010
Ayr Scottish Grand National Antepost
Abit of value around at present but I'm going to try and stick to one horse for this National. My choice is Mobaasher who runs for Venetia Williams. It can be abit arsey this one on occasion but the raw ability levels are not in question. The horse ended its hurdling career on a OR of 153 and runs in its sixth chase on Saturday off a OR mark of 139 which makes it a full stone better off. Obviously it is only graded on what it has achieved but it has scooped a couple of Novice events and was not overly outclassed at the Cheltenham Festival over a 4 mile trip when finishing 5th behind race rival Poker De Sivola.
This horse has a good career record when racing over 3 miles or more and stamina will be essential. The only offputting factor is its age of just seven years. It is common knowledge that horses between 8 and 10 are the ones to be concentrating on. I think though on this occasion it has more in its favour than against it and I'm looking at it from an each way viewpoint so the 22-1 that is available on Betfair could be worth chancing as I imagine it will trade at much shorter come the day.
I am having a 0.5pt stake antepost but will be topping up on the day with another 0.5pts each way.
This horse has a good career record when racing over 3 miles or more and stamina will be essential. The only offputting factor is its age of just seven years. It is common knowledge that horses between 8 and 10 are the ones to be concentrating on. I think though on this occasion it has more in its favour than against it and I'm looking at it from an each way viewpoint so the 22-1 that is available on Betfair could be worth chancing as I imagine it will trade at much shorter come the day.
I am having a 0.5pt stake antepost but will be topping up on the day with another 0.5pts each way.
Read on for more Cheltenham glory
Good result with yesterdays tip and it was tempting to rest for a day but there is another good card at Cheltenham and then there is the high quality flat stuff at Newmarket to coincide. However its simply too early for me to get my teeth into the flat season just yet with fitness of horses being unknown. With jumps though it is a different story, alot of runners have been over raced by now running for greedy owners who want to try and get as much stable fees back as possible. Then you've got horses that are suited alot to the heavy stuff that they have had to endure all winter trying their hooves for the first time back on good ground now that the sun is shining.
It helps narrow fields down and then locate the value so my one bet for Cheltenham after wading through the 17 runners in the Listed Handicap Mares Hurdle (3.20) is Mick Easterby's Diavoleria.
Nigel Twiston Davie's runs two decent horses but they are at the top of the weights and he is in disgusting form at present since blowing his own trumpet a bit too much when Imperial Commander won the Gold Cup. I've passed over both of his runners on the basis of such poor stable form, despite Kyber Kim winning at Aintree last week. Other than his two, the danger could be the high class Kerada but I am willing to ignore its chance based on its lack of wins on undulating, testing tracks such as Cheltenham. Bella Haze is a winning machine but has had 8 races since December which in my opinion is pushing a horse too far. It should find the ground too firm here and I readily pass it over as well. Easter Legend appealed to me at first but I just get the feeling that carrying 11st 9lb that one of the lower weighted horses will be able to get the better of it and that's why ultimately I've settled on Mick Easterby training his first Cheltenham winner.
The selection Diavoleria is still on the upgrade despite being a 7yo as she had a long absence through injury. She has come back thriving and is very genuine. Denis O'Regan has gone on a diet for this ride as he is set to race off just 1lb higher than the lowest weight he has done in the last 12 months. It's interesting they have bypassed the regular stable jockey in favour of O'Regan who stays over at Cheltenham from the previous day for just this one ride.
I am quietly interested in a big bet but would not want to over stake as one of the horses I have ignored could win against my better judgement so I'll stick to a smallish bet but have a cover on the place to retain my betting bank for the weekend should it just miss out on first place.
Enjoy!
Diavoleria 1.5pt Win Bet - No odds currently available but looking for 12-1! Covering to place.
It helps narrow fields down and then locate the value so my one bet for Cheltenham after wading through the 17 runners in the Listed Handicap Mares Hurdle (3.20) is Mick Easterby's Diavoleria.
Nigel Twiston Davie's runs two decent horses but they are at the top of the weights and he is in disgusting form at present since blowing his own trumpet a bit too much when Imperial Commander won the Gold Cup. I've passed over both of his runners on the basis of such poor stable form, despite Kyber Kim winning at Aintree last week. Other than his two, the danger could be the high class Kerada but I am willing to ignore its chance based on its lack of wins on undulating, testing tracks such as Cheltenham. Bella Haze is a winning machine but has had 8 races since December which in my opinion is pushing a horse too far. It should find the ground too firm here and I readily pass it over as well. Easter Legend appealed to me at first but I just get the feeling that carrying 11st 9lb that one of the lower weighted horses will be able to get the better of it and that's why ultimately I've settled on Mick Easterby training his first Cheltenham winner.
The selection Diavoleria is still on the upgrade despite being a 7yo as she had a long absence through injury. She has come back thriving and is very genuine. Denis O'Regan has gone on a diet for this ride as he is set to race off just 1lb higher than the lowest weight he has done in the last 12 months. It's interesting they have bypassed the regular stable jockey in favour of O'Regan who stays over at Cheltenham from the previous day for just this one ride.
I am quietly interested in a big bet but would not want to over stake as one of the horses I have ignored could win against my better judgement so I'll stick to a smallish bet but have a cover on the place to retain my betting bank for the weekend should it just miss out on first place.
Enjoy!
Diavoleria 1.5pt Win Bet - No odds currently available but looking for 12-1! Covering to place.
Wednesday, 14 April 2010
Danny Rose Wonder Strike vs Arsenal
Found it on the internet for anyone who did not see it. The match is currently ongoing as I write this, but not a bad goal for a full debutant player. Maybe the World Cup Theo Walcott of 2010 after this 40 yard blaster!
Gammon the order of the day
In celebration of todays winning blog bet I chose to buy some delightful gammon steak with my winnings. MMmmm tasty, but it could have been discounted sausages if I'm So Lucky had jumped the last without hesitation. A great win by Duc De Regniere ended what has been a superb season betting on the Cheltenham track. Had some brilliant bets land at the Festival and this result is a welcome one as the jumps season nears it end.
My bet ended up with a 21% reduction due to the withdrawal of Kangaroo Court, but at 6-1 it meant I still had a 4.8-1 bet playing for me. Won me over a ton to add to my betting bank so I am stacked ready for weekend.
Not found anything to bet on mind....
My bet ended up with a 21% reduction due to the withdrawal of Kangaroo Court, but at 6-1 it meant I still had a 4.8-1 bet playing for me. Won me over a ton to add to my betting bank so I am stacked ready for weekend.
Not found anything to bet on mind....
Back to cheltenham for another winner...
Cheltenham was very good to me this year with several nice prices popping up over the four day festival. With that in mind it wasn't very hard for me to overlook today's high class flat meeting at Newmarket in favour of a nice Grade 2 handicap chase (3.55pm) at Cheltenham.
There are many questions I had to ask myself when looking at the field. Last time out I had a nibble on Kangaroo Court but was not overly impressed by him in a competitive race. This is easier but at the 3-1 odds on offer it was easy to ignore this time around. Voy Por Ustedes is a former multiple G1 chase winner and is the class of the field by far here but it has lacked any quality in the current campaign and despite being dropped 5lb since Cheltenham as a result I can avoid it despite it being one of my bets at Cheltenham. From Dawn To Dusk is a recent winner but it only ran 4 days ago at Aintree when it hosed up over a longer trip. It gets in here with a temporary 5lb penalty before it is due to rise up the weights but it will hardly be 100% after those recent exertions so I am ignoring that too.
Amongst the other contenders, I'm So Lucky has an apprentice aboard making his chase debut. He has a 3 wins from 11 races strike rate over hurdles so is definitely a jockey to watch in future weeks, but he will be likely too nervous to make an impact in this race and the horse isn't the most reliable he is on in anycase. Gwanako is an interesting contender but it only ran adequately last time and not with any real enthusiasm so I am unsure as to whether it is capable to win here. Apart from my intended selection this leaves Leamington Lad but he is well out of the handicap and cannot be considered a serious danger in this company.
Therefore you guessed it, I am taking a chance on Duc De Regniere who looks a chaser that could definitely rise above his current mark of 148. According to his trainer he needs a gap between his racing to be at his best so the 61 day absence is favourable. Nicky Henderson also states that the horse can easily lose his confidence when jumping but he has targeted his prospect in small novice fields and had decent success. I have my doubts here whether they will go any real pace and if the pace is quite steady then Duc De Regniere will have time to get settled and could be the one to be on.
I'm on at 6-1 on Betfair for a 1pt stake. Lets hope its a winning bet!
There are many questions I had to ask myself when looking at the field. Last time out I had a nibble on Kangaroo Court but was not overly impressed by him in a competitive race. This is easier but at the 3-1 odds on offer it was easy to ignore this time around. Voy Por Ustedes is a former multiple G1 chase winner and is the class of the field by far here but it has lacked any quality in the current campaign and despite being dropped 5lb since Cheltenham as a result I can avoid it despite it being one of my bets at Cheltenham. From Dawn To Dusk is a recent winner but it only ran 4 days ago at Aintree when it hosed up over a longer trip. It gets in here with a temporary 5lb penalty before it is due to rise up the weights but it will hardly be 100% after those recent exertions so I am ignoring that too.
Amongst the other contenders, I'm So Lucky has an apprentice aboard making his chase debut. He has a 3 wins from 11 races strike rate over hurdles so is definitely a jockey to watch in future weeks, but he will be likely too nervous to make an impact in this race and the horse isn't the most reliable he is on in anycase. Gwanako is an interesting contender but it only ran adequately last time and not with any real enthusiasm so I am unsure as to whether it is capable to win here. Apart from my intended selection this leaves Leamington Lad but he is well out of the handicap and cannot be considered a serious danger in this company.
Therefore you guessed it, I am taking a chance on Duc De Regniere who looks a chaser that could definitely rise above his current mark of 148. According to his trainer he needs a gap between his racing to be at his best so the 61 day absence is favourable. Nicky Henderson also states that the horse can easily lose his confidence when jumping but he has targeted his prospect in small novice fields and had decent success. I have my doubts here whether they will go any real pace and if the pace is quite steady then Duc De Regniere will have time to get settled and could be the one to be on.
I'm on at 6-1 on Betfair for a 1pt stake. Lets hope its a winning bet!
Tuesday, 13 April 2010
Tartan Gigha Giggety Giggety
Not got much time but Tartan Gigha is very tempting today in the 4.20 Pontefract handicap (class 2). Race fit from its recent jaunt to Dubai this horse had some class about it last season and is interesting here at a relatively decent price. I think there is value to be had at the current 17-1 on Betfair.
So much for having a week off from gambling.....
Only a small bet though. 0.5pts to win and just covering my stake on the place market.
So much for having a week off from gambling.....
Only a small bet though. 0.5pts to win and just covering my stake on the place market.
Saturday, 10 April 2010
Too much, time for a break!
Aintree was great to watch but I think I betted myself out! Going to not blog for a week now as have to catch up on some other stuff but I will be back on Saturday for a tilt at the Ayr Scottish Champion Hurdle and to see if I can find something that will beat Denman in the Scottish Grand National. Should be fun.
Did not have the best of final days at Aintree. No returns on the National for me which was a big negative. My third place was no use as I had only bet to win on State Of Play. Did have some double figured priced horses place for me in some other races on the day but I had just backed to win with one of them and only covered on a place with the other for minor profit. My style of betting makes it frustrating when the longshots only place but when they win the money is worthwhile as most of my stake is on it!
Did not have the best of final days at Aintree. No returns on the National for me which was a big negative. My third place was no use as I had only bet to win on State Of Play. Did have some double figured priced horses place for me in some other races on the day but I had just backed to win with one of them and only covered on a place with the other for minor profit. My style of betting makes it frustrating when the longshots only place but when they win the money is worthwhile as most of my stake is on it!
Aintree Day 3 - In-running Updates
5.18PM Update:
I am signing out with my final update. The Aintree Champion Bumper is on next and two horses that catch my eye are DARE ME and ROYAL SWAIN. The latter is interesting due to the trainer commenting it is the "best" bumper horse he has ever trained, yet he has won this Champion Bumper before with another horse so 15-2 is great value based on that quote I feel. Dare Me I watched at Haydock once and he ran a decent race in the Cheltenham Bumper recently which can often be a good prep run for here. Interesting.
Both backed to win.
Dare Me 12-1 Various Bookmakers
Royal Swain 15-2 William Hill
4.39PM Update:Expensive! But great to watch and worth it really. I was lost throughout the race as I was looking for a GREY HORSE, when infact my main pick was a BAY - SNOWY MORNING. God knows where I got the idea it was grey from. The word Snowy must have confused me! Glad Mr McCoy won but how bent are the bookies? EVERY single horse shortened right before the off so that payouts would be much less. Disgusting cheats the lot of them!
3.59PM Update:I won't have a clue which are my horses due to having so many on my book so just going to watch Snowy Morning run round as thats my biggest stake and at least its a grey horse so I can see it!
3.54PM Update:Looking forward to the National but not forgetting the race after it. It is an amateur rider race which normally means I do not touch. However a horse running for Phillip Hobbs and is 2 from 2 around Aintree catches the eye. Nampour is the horse and Giles Hawkins rides who will claim 5lb. Interesting.
1pt EW Nampour 5.00PM 31-1 on Betfair
3.50PM Update:
Last race was definately my worst of the festival. One fell and the other two made too many mistakes. A wasteful race.
Grand National up next. Already detailed my bets in the Grand National preview but put a tiny stake on Niche Market and had a look through my bets and it appears I have a place bet on Cerium on my book. Think I've backed everything in the race! Going to be a speed fest I feel with a few flapping late on so the chasers should come to the fore later on.
Best of luck.
3.10PM Update:
Next race at 3.25pm is a competitive affair and I think the Henderson duo of Wogan and Au Courant have pretty strong claims and are both unexposed after only 8 chase races each to date.
Another that interests me at a massive price is Jaunty Flight at 40-1 could be the shock. I might risk a tricast (mugs bet) and see how it goes. I'll have a little single on each of them though.
0.5pt stakes on Wogan, Au Courant and Jaunty Flight.
3.01PM Update:
Unlucky. Fell and Ruby Walsh out of the National now. Annoyed as I had put a few quid on it to place to get most of my stake back. Nevermind, better luck to follow I hope.
2.30PM Update:
Nicholls finally got his Aintree into gear there with a easy win and I definately think he can follow up here with Celestial Halo now that the blinkers have been dispensed with. They most likely hindered it in the Champion Hurdle and left off here it will be much closer to Zaynar and I think has the potential to beat that rival. At the prices I am happy to bet Celestial Halo here despite the lack of experience over the 2m 4f trip.
1pt WIN 5-1 Celestial Halo with Betfred
2.25PM Update:
Answers on a postcard please, just how did Archie Boy grab a place? He was LAST 4 furlongs out and going backwards. Shows you just how fast they went! Lucky to get a place there. PHEW!
2.01PM Update:Archie Boy is calling me out at the 20-1 on Betfair. Trainer has aimed it at this race and it looked as though it was developing well on fast ground end of last year. Been given a break and a get-fit run over hurdles since and could be worth a chance in the next as the favourites all give me doubts and Bergo been subject to very strange betting patterns on Betfair.
Archie Boy 20-1 Betfair to WIN. Covering to place.
1.27PM Update:
Lucky William looks like it could be the one now 1.45PM as it is getting alot of support from all over. 11-1 now from 14-1, do they know? Or have they just been reading this. Joke.
12.59PM Update:
Glancing over some of the other races and I cant find an angle on the third race which is the Aintree Hurdle. There is still time though. As for the second race, the Maghull Novices Chase, it looks a substandard renewal based on past years. The interesting stat for this race is that for the last 15 years the winner of this has previously run in the ARKLE at Cheltenham. Only Osana comes here from that race this year but will it be suited by Aintree's flat speed track? Very unsure and at 11-4 at the moment I'm not planning on paying to find out! Tataniano could be dangerous and will lead them along most likely at a decent gallop, but the one that could benefit from conditions is Bergo. A former G3 placed runner in Germany on the flat he has proved very adaptable since coming to Britain for a jumping career. With plenty of pace on he could be running on strong at the end. Not going to bet on it yet though, I'm keeping track of the price movements for clues.
11.43AM Update:
Still looking at the opening race and I cannot be having the irish raider Lucky William being 14-1. It has some useful Graded form from Ireland and although conditions will probably not be ideal as it would prefer some juice, its far too big a price to completely leave alone.
Updated Selections:
Duke Of Lucca 8-1 2pts
Lucky William 14-1 0.5pts
11.16AM Update:
First race looks ridiculous market wise. Peddlers Cross does appear to be the best horse in the field and I did win with it at Cheltenham but at even money here there is no value whatsoever. On the Official Ratings the first four in the field are seperated by just 4lb yet two of them can be backed at 9-1 and 8-1 where as the other two "Cheltenham" horses are 5-1 and EVEN money. Sad state of affairs and another bookmaker attempt to fool the dozey drunken punters!
I am far more interested in the two horses that avoided Cheltenham to come straight here. Bygones Of Brid is one of those two but trainer has stated previously that the horse needs some juice in the ground and it is hard to envisage too much of that after several days of sunshine. Therefore I am going to pass on it and take Duke Of Lucca to one side as the value bet of the race!
This horse has had four starts over hurdles and won three. The only time it has been beaten is when it ran in a bog and couldn't cope with the heavy ground. It also put Pistolet Noir to one side with ease last time and that horse was third here in a Listed handicap race the other day which helps the form look decent.
In my view is a far better value bet than the two market principles. Hope for a good start!
Duke Of Lucca - 2pts WIN 8-1 with nearly all bookmakers
(covering to place on Betfair)
10.31AM Update:
Well yesterday may have been a fluke but blogging in-running helped me find General Miller at 14-1 and Always Waining at 28-1 so if it is not broken do not fix it. Therefore I am scrapping the preview post today and just writing on here as the day progresses. Hopefully the luck carries over for a third day.
I am signing out with my final update. The Aintree Champion Bumper is on next and two horses that catch my eye are DARE ME and ROYAL SWAIN. The latter is interesting due to the trainer commenting it is the "best" bumper horse he has ever trained, yet he has won this Champion Bumper before with another horse so 15-2 is great value based on that quote I feel. Dare Me I watched at Haydock once and he ran a decent race in the Cheltenham Bumper recently which can often be a good prep run for here. Interesting.
Both backed to win.
Dare Me 12-1 Various Bookmakers
Royal Swain 15-2 William Hill
4.39PM Update:Expensive! But great to watch and worth it really. I was lost throughout the race as I was looking for a GREY HORSE, when infact my main pick was a BAY - SNOWY MORNING. God knows where I got the idea it was grey from. The word Snowy must have confused me! Glad Mr McCoy won but how bent are the bookies? EVERY single horse shortened right before the off so that payouts would be much less. Disgusting cheats the lot of them!
3.59PM Update:I won't have a clue which are my horses due to having so many on my book so just going to watch Snowy Morning run round as thats my biggest stake and at least its a grey horse so I can see it!
3.54PM Update:Looking forward to the National but not forgetting the race after it. It is an amateur rider race which normally means I do not touch. However a horse running for Phillip Hobbs and is 2 from 2 around Aintree catches the eye. Nampour is the horse and Giles Hawkins rides who will claim 5lb. Interesting.
1pt EW Nampour 5.00PM 31-1 on Betfair
3.50PM Update:
Last race was definately my worst of the festival. One fell and the other two made too many mistakes. A wasteful race.
Grand National up next. Already detailed my bets in the Grand National preview but put a tiny stake on Niche Market and had a look through my bets and it appears I have a place bet on Cerium on my book. Think I've backed everything in the race! Going to be a speed fest I feel with a few flapping late on so the chasers should come to the fore later on.
Best of luck.
3.10PM Update:
Next race at 3.25pm is a competitive affair and I think the Henderson duo of Wogan and Au Courant have pretty strong claims and are both unexposed after only 8 chase races each to date.
Another that interests me at a massive price is Jaunty Flight at 40-1 could be the shock. I might risk a tricast (mugs bet) and see how it goes. I'll have a little single on each of them though.
0.5pt stakes on Wogan, Au Courant and Jaunty Flight.
3.01PM Update:
Unlucky. Fell and Ruby Walsh out of the National now. Annoyed as I had put a few quid on it to place to get most of my stake back. Nevermind, better luck to follow I hope.
2.30PM Update:
Nicholls finally got his Aintree into gear there with a easy win and I definately think he can follow up here with Celestial Halo now that the blinkers have been dispensed with. They most likely hindered it in the Champion Hurdle and left off here it will be much closer to Zaynar and I think has the potential to beat that rival. At the prices I am happy to bet Celestial Halo here despite the lack of experience over the 2m 4f trip.
1pt WIN 5-1 Celestial Halo with Betfred
2.25PM Update:
Answers on a postcard please, just how did Archie Boy grab a place? He was LAST 4 furlongs out and going backwards. Shows you just how fast they went! Lucky to get a place there. PHEW!
2.01PM Update:Archie Boy is calling me out at the 20-1 on Betfair. Trainer has aimed it at this race and it looked as though it was developing well on fast ground end of last year. Been given a break and a get-fit run over hurdles since and could be worth a chance in the next as the favourites all give me doubts and Bergo been subject to very strange betting patterns on Betfair.
Archie Boy 20-1 Betfair to WIN. Covering to place.
1.27PM Update:
Lucky William looks like it could be the one now 1.45PM as it is getting alot of support from all over. 11-1 now from 14-1, do they know? Or have they just been reading this. Joke.
12.59PM Update:
Glancing over some of the other races and I cant find an angle on the third race which is the Aintree Hurdle. There is still time though. As for the second race, the Maghull Novices Chase, it looks a substandard renewal based on past years. The interesting stat for this race is that for the last 15 years the winner of this has previously run in the ARKLE at Cheltenham. Only Osana comes here from that race this year but will it be suited by Aintree's flat speed track? Very unsure and at 11-4 at the moment I'm not planning on paying to find out! Tataniano could be dangerous and will lead them along most likely at a decent gallop, but the one that could benefit from conditions is Bergo. A former G3 placed runner in Germany on the flat he has proved very adaptable since coming to Britain for a jumping career. With plenty of pace on he could be running on strong at the end. Not going to bet on it yet though, I'm keeping track of the price movements for clues.
11.43AM Update:
Still looking at the opening race and I cannot be having the irish raider Lucky William being 14-1. It has some useful Graded form from Ireland and although conditions will probably not be ideal as it would prefer some juice, its far too big a price to completely leave alone.
Updated Selections:
Duke Of Lucca 8-1 2pts
Lucky William 14-1 0.5pts
11.16AM Update:
First race looks ridiculous market wise. Peddlers Cross does appear to be the best horse in the field and I did win with it at Cheltenham but at even money here there is no value whatsoever. On the Official Ratings the first four in the field are seperated by just 4lb yet two of them can be backed at 9-1 and 8-1 where as the other two "Cheltenham" horses are 5-1 and EVEN money. Sad state of affairs and another bookmaker attempt to fool the dozey drunken punters!
I am far more interested in the two horses that avoided Cheltenham to come straight here. Bygones Of Brid is one of those two but trainer has stated previously that the horse needs some juice in the ground and it is hard to envisage too much of that after several days of sunshine. Therefore I am going to pass on it and take Duke Of Lucca to one side as the value bet of the race!
This horse has had four starts over hurdles and won three. The only time it has been beaten is when it ran in a bog and couldn't cope with the heavy ground. It also put Pistolet Noir to one side with ease last time and that horse was third here in a Listed handicap race the other day which helps the form look decent.
In my view is a far better value bet than the two market principles. Hope for a good start!
Duke Of Lucca - 2pts WIN 8-1 with nearly all bookmakers
(covering to place on Betfair)
10.31AM Update:
Well yesterday may have been a fluke but blogging in-running helped me find General Miller at 14-1 and Always Waining at 28-1 so if it is not broken do not fix it. Therefore I am scrapping the preview post today and just writing on here as the day progresses. Hopefully the luck carries over for a third day.
Friday, 9 April 2010
Grand National Preview
Usually I have my selection cast in stone over a week before the race but this year it looks the most competitive I've seen.
Always Waining won the Topham chase yesterday despite being in the worst form of his career with nothing better than a fifth place to his name in nine runs since his last visit to Aintree.
When I ask myself how this occurred then I have to remember that previous form around the National course counts for more than winning a race on another course (barring an Irish Grand National perhaps). It appeared crucial in the Topham to remain prominent as the first two horses had it between them until Frankie Figg fell late on to leave Always Waining to dawdle home infront alone. The same prominent racing trend occurs in the Grand National too.
There is some discrepency regarding the unwritten 11st barrier. I am no longer a believer in the "back anything below 11st" rule, where as a few years ago I was. This is because the handicapper now has the right to choose weights as he sees appropriate so no longer can an Irish horse be kept over hurdles to keep its chasing mark down and visit Aintree and win at 10st and go home victorious. Now if there are any signs of a horse being run in inadequate races to keep its handicap mark down the BHA Handicapper has the right to raise the horses weight for this race. Hopefully I make some sense.
I think a horse can be weighted a few pounds over 11st and still have a fighting chance, especially with the bottom weight this year being 10st 5lb aswell instead of the bare 10st.
I've already backed a couple for this race but I've talked myself out of them now. Ballyholland was one of them but he has his stamina to prove. However his odds of 28-1 make it a value punt to find out as he has quite abit of class and will be racing prominently which will help. My other early bet was on Arbor Supreme who has won on good ground in Ireland over 3m 6f so has plenty of stamina about him and runs off a tidy weight of 10st 8lbs. Interesting and available at 18-1.
What I noticed about my two picks though was that I have gambled on picking horses with no previous Aintree form. After watching the Topham I think this could be a mistake and especially after 7 of the previous 10 winners of the National have had course form I think I need to get some horses of that stature on my side if I am to win the race.
With this in mind I think Snowy Morning (beware its a grey, they never win) has a great chance. Third 2 years ago when rated 145 and only 8 years old, it did not run aswell last year but had risen to a rating of 156 which is simply far too high to win a National from. The Handicapper has been extra lenient this term despite some brilliant runs over inadequate trips and the horse now finds himself at a rating of only 147 which is a massive error by him I feel. He should have weighted this horse around 153 based on the horses career form so with 6lb less to carry than I think it should, it has a superb chance and can be backed at 16-1.
The other I think is handily rated and may run well is State Of Play. He is a another class horse personified who has got in this race based on past form off a very lenient rating. He was 4th in this race last year off a rating of 150 and has the benefit of that experience and a drop down to 145 for this renewal. He was hampered quite badly last year too so considering he is 12lb better off this time around with last years winner Mon Mome you have to say he has a fighting chance of being amongst the leaders at the finish.
Before I forget I have a cheeky bet on Palyspo De Creek to finish in the top five. It was 100-1 when I placed the bet but I got quarter odds on a 1-5 finish so thats 20-1 for 2nd to 5th. I'll be praying even though its unlikely!
My 'hopeful' Grand National top 5 prediction is:
1st Snowy Morning 16-1
2nd Arbor Supreme 18-1
3rd State Of Play 16-1
4th Ballyholland 28-1
5th Palypso De Creek 100-1
Special mention to Niche Market who is the current Irish Grand National winner and is my workplace sweepstake horse. I actually think it also has a great chance of a first five finish but its never met these fences before so I am not confident with the weight it has to carry, of him winning. Its the first time I think I've had any chance of winning the sweepstake though in 8 years! That is at least SOMETHING!
Always Waining won the Topham chase yesterday despite being in the worst form of his career with nothing better than a fifth place to his name in nine runs since his last visit to Aintree.
When I ask myself how this occurred then I have to remember that previous form around the National course counts for more than winning a race on another course (barring an Irish Grand National perhaps). It appeared crucial in the Topham to remain prominent as the first two horses had it between them until Frankie Figg fell late on to leave Always Waining to dawdle home infront alone. The same prominent racing trend occurs in the Grand National too.
There is some discrepency regarding the unwritten 11st barrier. I am no longer a believer in the "back anything below 11st" rule, where as a few years ago I was. This is because the handicapper now has the right to choose weights as he sees appropriate so no longer can an Irish horse be kept over hurdles to keep its chasing mark down and visit Aintree and win at 10st and go home victorious. Now if there are any signs of a horse being run in inadequate races to keep its handicap mark down the BHA Handicapper has the right to raise the horses weight for this race. Hopefully I make some sense.
I think a horse can be weighted a few pounds over 11st and still have a fighting chance, especially with the bottom weight this year being 10st 5lb aswell instead of the bare 10st.
I've already backed a couple for this race but I've talked myself out of them now. Ballyholland was one of them but he has his stamina to prove. However his odds of 28-1 make it a value punt to find out as he has quite abit of class and will be racing prominently which will help. My other early bet was on Arbor Supreme who has won on good ground in Ireland over 3m 6f so has plenty of stamina about him and runs off a tidy weight of 10st 8lbs. Interesting and available at 18-1.
What I noticed about my two picks though was that I have gambled on picking horses with no previous Aintree form. After watching the Topham I think this could be a mistake and especially after 7 of the previous 10 winners of the National have had course form I think I need to get some horses of that stature on my side if I am to win the race.
With this in mind I think Snowy Morning (beware its a grey, they never win) has a great chance. Third 2 years ago when rated 145 and only 8 years old, it did not run aswell last year but had risen to a rating of 156 which is simply far too high to win a National from. The Handicapper has been extra lenient this term despite some brilliant runs over inadequate trips and the horse now finds himself at a rating of only 147 which is a massive error by him I feel. He should have weighted this horse around 153 based on the horses career form so with 6lb less to carry than I think it should, it has a superb chance and can be backed at 16-1.
The other I think is handily rated and may run well is State Of Play. He is a another class horse personified who has got in this race based on past form off a very lenient rating. He was 4th in this race last year off a rating of 150 and has the benefit of that experience and a drop down to 145 for this renewal. He was hampered quite badly last year too so considering he is 12lb better off this time around with last years winner Mon Mome you have to say he has a fighting chance of being amongst the leaders at the finish.
Before I forget I have a cheeky bet on Palyspo De Creek to finish in the top five. It was 100-1 when I placed the bet but I got quarter odds on a 1-5 finish so thats 20-1 for 2nd to 5th. I'll be praying even though its unlikely!
My 'hopeful' Grand National top 5 prediction is:
1st Snowy Morning 16-1
2nd Arbor Supreme 18-1
3rd State Of Play 16-1
4th Ballyholland 28-1
5th Palypso De Creek 100-1
Special mention to Niche Market who is the current Irish Grand National winner and is my workplace sweepstake horse. I actually think it also has a great chance of a first five finish but its never met these fences before so I am not confident with the weight it has to carry, of him winning. Its the first time I think I've had any chance of winning the sweepstake though in 8 years! That is at least SOMETHING!
In-running Day Two Betting Updates
4.45pm Update:
Last update now as I will not be touching the bumper. Here some useful sorts line up and my earlier bet Alderluck looks like this will suit. However the horse that fits the trends perfectly is Carsonstown Boy who will love the good going and can improve for it. Likely to take them along in the lead he could be a nice back to lay prospect.
Happy betting!
4.20pm Update:
Bloodbath that last race. Still calming down here. I still do not have a big National fancy but course form is looking crucial after that race.
Phidippides would have been my pick here but there is just a lack of experience that concerns me. 16 of the last 17 winners have had 4 runs over hurdles and sadly this one has only had 2 so has to be dismissed.
Based on the current prices and this HUGE statistic I am settling for a 1pt win bet on LORD GENEROUS. Good ground now and getting quicker all the time which is perfect for this horse.
Lord Generous available with most bookmakers 1pt 12-1 to WIN. Cover stakes on the place.
4.08pm Update:
Wow, Always Waining - THEY KNEW! I do not normally follow like a sheep but 50-1 in to 20-1 in anyone's eyes is a major market move! Usually means they place only but this one won by a country mile. 0.5pts but available at 28-1 on Betfair returned me several hundred. A nice festival so far but feeling incredibly fortunate rather than clever.
3.42pm Update:
I am not too hopeful on these, drifting like mad my original two and Always Waining looks most likely to place unless several fall. Still hopeful though!
3.34pm Update:
Always Waining a horse that has experience over the course is being backed in for the Topham. Was available at 50-1 at one stage this morning and now approaching 20-1 with nearly all bookmakers. Could be one for a place.
My two I will stick with here, neither has experience of these fences so I am betting slightly blind here. Duers is a whopping 40-1 in some places and Battlecry to me looks overpriced considering it has some Graded form from the past to its name. Very lightly weighted and could shock if taking to the fences.
Carnage AWAITS!
Betting on Duer, Battlecry and Always Waining equal stakes. o.5pts to win! Cannot be bothered betting to place.
3.16pm Update:
Won the quid! Poquelin fell. Easy! Sadly lost alot on my Deep Purple bet. Nevermind, still ahead. Need to retain some discipline now. Cheltenham winners are finding their feet now with Albertas Run obliging there.
3.09pm Update:
Just had a token £1 match bet against a friend. He is on Poquelin and I am on Deep Purple. I think both should be the same price so an even money £1 is just about fair enough. This could change my life should Deep Purple finish ahead!
2.50pm Update:
The Melling Chase up next at 3.10pm. Already put a sizeable chunk on Deep Purple who I think is tremendous value at 9-1. 11.5 on Betfair earlier when I 'lumped' on. Flat track should suit far better than Cheltenham where the horse still ran well to get a decent 4th place in the Ryannair Chase. Kalahari King is the big danger in my eyes as mentioned in my preview but it simply is no value at 7-2 for me. If it had of been 9-2 or so then maybe I'd have backed it each way as a bet to nothing.
Deep Purple - 9-1 available with various bookmakers. 2pts to WIN! Betting to place on Betfair to recoup any lost win bet.
2.45pm Update:
Shame, only 4th place so miss out with the place bet. Burton Port won quite comfortably. Lenabane just made too many errors when trying to jump at pace in the latter part of the race. Held up most of the way carrying on the form of those that have tried to stay towards the back of the fields in the races at this festival.
2.29pm Update:
Burton Port drifting slightly. People finally realising that Cheltenham and Aintree are two totally different tracks and the form at Cheltenham is not invincible form back here at Aintree.
2.16pm Update:
Well the first pick of the day obliged with General Miller. Despite a couple of errors it still managed to power through and was the gamble of the race. Luckily I got on it before the gamble took place so had a nice 14-1 result. Went off at 7-1SP.
Lenabane looks best value for the 2.35pm race at 9-1 based upon its Grade 1 4th place form in Ireland. I have slight worries ground may be too quick but jockeys are stating after the first race it is not quick, it is merely "perfect" good ground.
LENABANE - 9-1 available 1pt to place 0.5pts to win
1.55pm Update:
All the money seems to be for the Nicholls runner and Dan Breen in this. Dan Breen looked interesting at Cheltenham but ultimately was not suited by the track. Flat track here seems to be what everyone is pinning hopes on but it is no value now unless backing to lay for a free bet. It is a front runner after all.
12.57pm Update:
Menorah looking abit uneasy in the market for the opener, possibly due to the lack of success yesterday of Cheltenham winners (only invincible Big Bucks obliged). Interesting signals surrounding General Miller who fell at the first last time when racing against Menorah but that may possibly have been a blessing in disguise as the horse runs well fresh. It is also incredibly interesting to note that when the horse won its debut over hurdles the previous 4 winners of that same race were Karabak, Calgary Bay, Tidal Bay and Noland. They are all Graded winners so it seems massive value today that General Miller is big odds against a horse that has had a hard race at Cheltenham and may not be back to peak fitness yet to win here.
GENERAL MILLER - 14-1 available with William Hill and Bet365. Betting to win 1pt!
Last update now as I will not be touching the bumper. Here some useful sorts line up and my earlier bet Alderluck looks like this will suit. However the horse that fits the trends perfectly is Carsonstown Boy who will love the good going and can improve for it. Likely to take them along in the lead he could be a nice back to lay prospect.
Happy betting!
4.20pm Update:
Bloodbath that last race. Still calming down here. I still do not have a big National fancy but course form is looking crucial after that race.
Phidippides would have been my pick here but there is just a lack of experience that concerns me. 16 of the last 17 winners have had 4 runs over hurdles and sadly this one has only had 2 so has to be dismissed.
Based on the current prices and this HUGE statistic I am settling for a 1pt win bet on LORD GENEROUS. Good ground now and getting quicker all the time which is perfect for this horse.
Lord Generous available with most bookmakers 1pt 12-1 to WIN. Cover stakes on the place.
4.08pm Update:
Wow, Always Waining - THEY KNEW! I do not normally follow like a sheep but 50-1 in to 20-1 in anyone's eyes is a major market move! Usually means they place only but this one won by a country mile. 0.5pts but available at 28-1 on Betfair returned me several hundred. A nice festival so far but feeling incredibly fortunate rather than clever.
3.42pm Update:
I am not too hopeful on these, drifting like mad my original two and Always Waining looks most likely to place unless several fall. Still hopeful though!
3.34pm Update:
Always Waining a horse that has experience over the course is being backed in for the Topham. Was available at 50-1 at one stage this morning and now approaching 20-1 with nearly all bookmakers. Could be one for a place.
My two I will stick with here, neither has experience of these fences so I am betting slightly blind here. Duers is a whopping 40-1 in some places and Battlecry to me looks overpriced considering it has some Graded form from the past to its name. Very lightly weighted and could shock if taking to the fences.
Carnage AWAITS!
Betting on Duer, Battlecry and Always Waining equal stakes. o.5pts to win! Cannot be bothered betting to place.
3.16pm Update:
Won the quid! Poquelin fell. Easy! Sadly lost alot on my Deep Purple bet. Nevermind, still ahead. Need to retain some discipline now. Cheltenham winners are finding their feet now with Albertas Run obliging there.
3.09pm Update:
Just had a token £1 match bet against a friend. He is on Poquelin and I am on Deep Purple. I think both should be the same price so an even money £1 is just about fair enough. This could change my life should Deep Purple finish ahead!
2.50pm Update:
The Melling Chase up next at 3.10pm. Already put a sizeable chunk on Deep Purple who I think is tremendous value at 9-1. 11.5 on Betfair earlier when I 'lumped' on. Flat track should suit far better than Cheltenham where the horse still ran well to get a decent 4th place in the Ryannair Chase. Kalahari King is the big danger in my eyes as mentioned in my preview but it simply is no value at 7-2 for me. If it had of been 9-2 or so then maybe I'd have backed it each way as a bet to nothing.
Deep Purple - 9-1 available with various bookmakers. 2pts to WIN! Betting to place on Betfair to recoup any lost win bet.
2.45pm Update:
Shame, only 4th place so miss out with the place bet. Burton Port won quite comfortably. Lenabane just made too many errors when trying to jump at pace in the latter part of the race. Held up most of the way carrying on the form of those that have tried to stay towards the back of the fields in the races at this festival.
2.29pm Update:
Burton Port drifting slightly. People finally realising that Cheltenham and Aintree are two totally different tracks and the form at Cheltenham is not invincible form back here at Aintree.
2.16pm Update:
Well the first pick of the day obliged with General Miller. Despite a couple of errors it still managed to power through and was the gamble of the race. Luckily I got on it before the gamble took place so had a nice 14-1 result. Went off at 7-1SP.
Lenabane looks best value for the 2.35pm race at 9-1 based upon its Grade 1 4th place form in Ireland. I have slight worries ground may be too quick but jockeys are stating after the first race it is not quick, it is merely "perfect" good ground.
LENABANE - 9-1 available 1pt to place 0.5pts to win
1.55pm Update:
All the money seems to be for the Nicholls runner and Dan Breen in this. Dan Breen looked interesting at Cheltenham but ultimately was not suited by the track. Flat track here seems to be what everyone is pinning hopes on but it is no value now unless backing to lay for a free bet. It is a front runner after all.
12.57pm Update:
Menorah looking abit uneasy in the market for the opener, possibly due to the lack of success yesterday of Cheltenham winners (only invincible Big Bucks obliged). Interesting signals surrounding General Miller who fell at the first last time when racing against Menorah but that may possibly have been a blessing in disguise as the horse runs well fresh. It is also incredibly interesting to note that when the horse won its debut over hurdles the previous 4 winners of that same race were Karabak, Calgary Bay, Tidal Bay and Noland. They are all Graded winners so it seems massive value today that General Miller is big odds against a horse that has had a hard race at Cheltenham and may not be back to peak fitness yet to win here.
GENERAL MILLER - 14-1 available with William Hill and Bet365. Betting to win 1pt!
Day Two - Aintree Preview
Not planning on a trip to the track today so discipline and value seeking is the name of the game once more. No hopeful following of picks that have run at Cheltenham and no selecting of horses that are clearly no value based on minimal superiority to their race rivals.
I have viewed the first race and it would appear Menorah cannot be beaten. However I would be stupid to bet it at 6-4 odds considering I bet and won with it at Cheltenham at 16-1! Therefore it is a race I will pass on as I am want to save my money for better value chances.
The second race of the day is of interest as I think Ogee can spring a surprise and finish infront of Burton Port. This race takes longer to complete than the RSA Chase at Cheltenham so that in theory will aid Burton Port who was second there. Ogee meanwhile lacked experience when running a decent race at Cheltenham ultimately messing up at a vital time to win. This Aintree track though where he won at this meeting last year can bring about the improvement required to win in my view. Each way is the safe call but I'd be tempted to risk a win only bet and scoop a bigger win should it beat the favourite as I hope it will.
The third race on the card is the Grade 1 Melling Chase and a race I cannot wait to see. Looks very competitive with so many great chasers in opposition. Monets Garden has a fantasic record at Aintree but is at an age now where I find it hard to envisage him winning. It is not impossible but unlikely in my mind considering this is far tougher than the renewal he won 3 years ago. A lot of Cheltenham form is on show and I expect the winner could come from one of them. Albertas Run a ready winner of the Ryanair Chase looks decent value but it has run at Aintree before and never looked anywhere near as good as it does at Cheltenham (Imperial Commanderesque). The horse that may not be value but looks most likely to win in my mind is Kalahari King. This is because at this distance I expect him to improve on his Cheltenham run on a track that has already proven to suit. Another that is sure to run well is Deep Purple who seems to be coming back into form and back at Aintree an improved performance can be expected at a decent each way price. Last of the possibles for me in this is Padydeplasterer but he lacks finishing speed and that could cost him on a track like this. He will be galloping all the way to the line but will probably compete for place money in all likelihood. Kalahari King and Deep Purple at the prices get my vote! Might mix them up in a double and two separate win bets.
29 runners contest the fourth race of the day, the Topham Chase run over the National fences. Racecaller states some useful trends which I am going to use to aid my picks:
The most significant appears to be finding a horse that has won over the distance and won a chase race worth at least 9k. More than 10 handicap chase runs are required as experience and it does appear that an advantage is given if the horse has had a run within the last 35 days or so.
Past experience notoriously counts for a lot over these fences and there are several taking part that have tried them before so the winner could come from Pak Jack, Always Waining, Offshore Account, Frankie Figg or incredibly yesterdays winner Silver Adonis.
Frankie Figg would be of interest but he does not jump well under pressure with horses around him. He has fallen the last two times he has attempted to make all around this course and I see a similar thing occurring again today. If he can compose himself though and stay upright then he should be in the first four at the finish. However the 16-1 odds available offer no value considering his negatives.
Duers is intriguing and gets into this race off his proper handicap mark which is a small plus. He was being aimed at the Grand National itself at one stage but it is a blessing in disguise in my view that he didn't get into it as this race is far more suitable. 28-1 is available and that is value considering the ground has now turned in the horses favour with the lengthy spells of sunshine that we have had. He should race prominently and has never fallen so I am relatively keen on him doing well if he takes to the fences.
The other horse of potential value is Battlecry. Not a prolific winner but talented on his day with experience of these fences previously. It is a proven trend that horses that have not won that same season or have only won once do much better so Battlecry ticks this stat nicely and has come down the weights considerably running off a rating 12lb lower than when he attempted the National last year. Interesting chance.
There is another fantastic race on the card next with the Sefton Novices Hurdle. It is a grade one for inexperienced hurdlers and can often find a good one to follow the career of in future years. The last three winners have had starting prices of 25-1, 20-1 and 16-1 so it does appear that a horse jumping well on the day itself does not need immaculate previous form. Only two favourites have obliged in the last 9 years and both were in the top echolons of class in Iris's Gift and Black Jack Ketchum. There is definitely no horse of that stature in the field this year. I have narrowed it down to three possibles with Voramar Two, Chamirey and Lord Generous. I am going to have to kick one of them out and just bet small on two here. Voramar Two and Lord Generous to win would be my preferred choice.
The sixth race is a classy handicap hurdle and one stat I have found is that the last 4 winners were stepping up in trip to tackle the 3m+ for the first time. Alderluck looks fascinating with the ground and trip looking almost certain to be ideal. 25-1 is available and I am very keen. Ringaroses could be a good cover with Jonjo O'Neill the trainer having a good record in this race. This one also fits the ratings trend which suggests horses above 134 not having much chance. Despite Alderluck being rated 135 I will still have that as my main pick as the improvement possible from the step up in trip compensates this.
The final race on the card is a bumper flat race and this is something I am not very interested in. Hopefully I've won my money beforehand!
Best Value Bets:
Alderluck 25-1 with Sportingbet (4.55)
Duers 33-1 with Bet365 (3.45)
Battlecry 20-1 with Ladbrokes and William Hill (3.45)
Deep Purple 9-1 with various Bookmakers (3.10)
I am not making the mistake of stating the rest of my bets early because betting patterns change and value becomes clearer nearer the time. I would definitely be paying special attention to horses that like to run close to the pace today as yesterday the held up horses tended to suffer.
I have viewed the first race and it would appear Menorah cannot be beaten. However I would be stupid to bet it at 6-4 odds considering I bet and won with it at Cheltenham at 16-1! Therefore it is a race I will pass on as I am want to save my money for better value chances.
The second race of the day is of interest as I think Ogee can spring a surprise and finish infront of Burton Port. This race takes longer to complete than the RSA Chase at Cheltenham so that in theory will aid Burton Port who was second there. Ogee meanwhile lacked experience when running a decent race at Cheltenham ultimately messing up at a vital time to win. This Aintree track though where he won at this meeting last year can bring about the improvement required to win in my view. Each way is the safe call but I'd be tempted to risk a win only bet and scoop a bigger win should it beat the favourite as I hope it will.
The third race on the card is the Grade 1 Melling Chase and a race I cannot wait to see. Looks very competitive with so many great chasers in opposition. Monets Garden has a fantasic record at Aintree but is at an age now where I find it hard to envisage him winning. It is not impossible but unlikely in my mind considering this is far tougher than the renewal he won 3 years ago. A lot of Cheltenham form is on show and I expect the winner could come from one of them. Albertas Run a ready winner of the Ryanair Chase looks decent value but it has run at Aintree before and never looked anywhere near as good as it does at Cheltenham (Imperial Commanderesque). The horse that may not be value but looks most likely to win in my mind is Kalahari King. This is because at this distance I expect him to improve on his Cheltenham run on a track that has already proven to suit. Another that is sure to run well is Deep Purple who seems to be coming back into form and back at Aintree an improved performance can be expected at a decent each way price. Last of the possibles for me in this is Padydeplasterer but he lacks finishing speed and that could cost him on a track like this. He will be galloping all the way to the line but will probably compete for place money in all likelihood. Kalahari King and Deep Purple at the prices get my vote! Might mix them up in a double and two separate win bets.
29 runners contest the fourth race of the day, the Topham Chase run over the National fences. Racecaller states some useful trends which I am going to use to aid my picks:
The most significant appears to be finding a horse that has won over the distance and won a chase race worth at least 9k. More than 10 handicap chase runs are required as experience and it does appear that an advantage is given if the horse has had a run within the last 35 days or so.
Past experience notoriously counts for a lot over these fences and there are several taking part that have tried them before so the winner could come from Pak Jack, Always Waining, Offshore Account, Frankie Figg or incredibly yesterdays winner Silver Adonis.
Frankie Figg would be of interest but he does not jump well under pressure with horses around him. He has fallen the last two times he has attempted to make all around this course and I see a similar thing occurring again today. If he can compose himself though and stay upright then he should be in the first four at the finish. However the 16-1 odds available offer no value considering his negatives.
Duers is intriguing and gets into this race off his proper handicap mark which is a small plus. He was being aimed at the Grand National itself at one stage but it is a blessing in disguise in my view that he didn't get into it as this race is far more suitable. 28-1 is available and that is value considering the ground has now turned in the horses favour with the lengthy spells of sunshine that we have had. He should race prominently and has never fallen so I am relatively keen on him doing well if he takes to the fences.
The other horse of potential value is Battlecry. Not a prolific winner but talented on his day with experience of these fences previously. It is a proven trend that horses that have not won that same season or have only won once do much better so Battlecry ticks this stat nicely and has come down the weights considerably running off a rating 12lb lower than when he attempted the National last year. Interesting chance.
There is another fantastic race on the card next with the Sefton Novices Hurdle. It is a grade one for inexperienced hurdlers and can often find a good one to follow the career of in future years. The last three winners have had starting prices of 25-1, 20-1 and 16-1 so it does appear that a horse jumping well on the day itself does not need immaculate previous form. Only two favourites have obliged in the last 9 years and both were in the top echolons of class in Iris's Gift and Black Jack Ketchum. There is definitely no horse of that stature in the field this year. I have narrowed it down to three possibles with Voramar Two, Chamirey and Lord Generous. I am going to have to kick one of them out and just bet small on two here. Voramar Two and Lord Generous to win would be my preferred choice.
The sixth race is a classy handicap hurdle and one stat I have found is that the last 4 winners were stepping up in trip to tackle the 3m+ for the first time. Alderluck looks fascinating with the ground and trip looking almost certain to be ideal. 25-1 is available and I am very keen. Ringaroses could be a good cover with Jonjo O'Neill the trainer having a good record in this race. This one also fits the ratings trend which suggests horses above 134 not having much chance. Despite Alderluck being rated 135 I will still have that as my main pick as the improvement possible from the step up in trip compensates this.
The final race on the card is a bumper flat race and this is something I am not very interested in. Hopefully I've won my money beforehand!
Best Value Bets:
Alderluck 25-1 with Sportingbet (4.55)
Duers 33-1 with Bet365 (3.45)
Battlecry 20-1 with Ladbrokes and William Hill (3.45)
Deep Purple 9-1 with various Bookmakers (3.10)
I am not making the mistake of stating the rest of my bets early because betting patterns change and value becomes clearer nearer the time. I would definitely be paying special attention to horses that like to run close to the pace today as yesterday the held up horses tended to suffer.
Thursday, 8 April 2010
Fortune favours the brave (I got bloody lucky!)
Aintree Day One turned out to be a savage day for favourites with only the DEAD CERT Big Bucks obliging it was left to horses with Starting Prices of 40-1, 50-1, 20-1 and 16-1 to win four of the other 6 races! Incredible prices, but just imagine what they probably were on Betfair? Scary!
My picks were failing left right and centre and I was well down with four races gone, so I changed tact and added a 2nd choice to each of my remaining picks to either go totally bust or capture a fluke. Luckily the latter happened!
Chanibar at 25-1 (20-1SP) obliged in the fifth race after I had gone equal stakes on that one and Safari Journey. The latter never showed its form and looks like it is definitely a good ground or faster performer. However Chanibar absolutely annihilated its opponents getting to the lead before too long and pushing clear of the pack with a mile left. It stretched them out and won by a country mile in the end with only Doctor David stoking up a challenge and that one was still 15 lengths behind crossing the line! I didn't really expect to win but I'd heard about the horse when watching the RacingPost Television Forum on their website. RP Correspondent Ben Hutton had mentioned it as a horse at a price of some value considering the form it had shown and luckily this had stuck in my subconscious for me to take advantage. Phew!
I followed up by pairing up Mad Max (5-1) with my original pick Somersby in the next race and both shot clear with the former prevailing. It was a nice win but Somersby clearly didn't perform as he could and was looked at beforehand by the vet which really put me off it.
In the end a good day, profitable more by luck than knowledge. However I was only out to enjoy myself and had set myself a target of breaking even which I surpassed. Any riches on the course are always welcomed but it was so close to being a nightmare before that LUCKY fifth race!
My picks were failing left right and centre and I was well down with four races gone, so I changed tact and added a 2nd choice to each of my remaining picks to either go totally bust or capture a fluke. Luckily the latter happened!
Chanibar at 25-1 (20-1SP) obliged in the fifth race after I had gone equal stakes on that one and Safari Journey. The latter never showed its form and looks like it is definitely a good ground or faster performer. However Chanibar absolutely annihilated its opponents getting to the lead before too long and pushing clear of the pack with a mile left. It stretched them out and won by a country mile in the end with only Doctor David stoking up a challenge and that one was still 15 lengths behind crossing the line! I didn't really expect to win but I'd heard about the horse when watching the RacingPost Television Forum on their website. RP Correspondent Ben Hutton had mentioned it as a horse at a price of some value considering the form it had shown and luckily this had stuck in my subconscious for me to take advantage. Phew!
I followed up by pairing up Mad Max (5-1) with my original pick Somersby in the next race and both shot clear with the former prevailing. It was a nice win but Somersby clearly didn't perform as he could and was looked at beforehand by the vet which really put me off it.
In the end a good day, profitable more by luck than knowledge. However I was only out to enjoy myself and had set myself a target of breaking even which I surpassed. Any riches on the course are always welcomed but it was so close to being a nightmare before that LUCKY fifth race!
Wednesday, 7 April 2010
Day 1 - Aintree Preview
Before I created this blog I would religiously pencil in various scruffily written notes onto a piece of paper ready for my day at the races. How times change as now I can easily write up this blog and then access it all on the course from my mobile phone. All I need to do then is remember to charge the thing!
When I visit the racecourse I invariably let my betting get abit loose compared to when I'm betting from home and watching the TV. A day at the races is about enjoyment for me so it feels abit senseless to not have some kind of bet in every race. Therefore as I will be betting in every race I will try and write about my reasoning for each of my SEVEN selections for Day One of the Aintree Grand National Festival.
Race 1 - BGC Partners Liverpool Hurdle Grade 1 (2.00pm)
The result of the winner of this race is already beyond reasonable doubt as Big Bucks the long distance hurdler of its generation takes part here. It would be absolutely criminal for me to even suggest something can beat it. On the figures it has 12lb in hand over likely main challenger Tidal Bay.
However I've done my analysis and I am approaching the race from the Each Way perspective as there will be EIGHT runners lining up now that Time For Rupert will not run. This approach could be shattered though should another horse withdraw before the start as then each way would only pay out on two places (unless betting on the exchanges).
Tiday Bay coming back from a poor showing at Cheltenham may be vulnerable for 2nd place but you have to give it enough respect to say it is ahead of its rivals in terms of ability if on song. A career hurdling record of 10 starts and only ONCE being outside the first 2 tells you that clearly.
Its the race for third place that looks interesting and it is between Bouggler, Kayf Aramis and Souffleur in my eyes and luckily they all competed at Haydock against one another to help me with my form analysis.
My choice for the 3rd place and best challenger for 2nd place is Bouggler. It was an unlucky third at Haydock when interfered with by the eventual winner Souffleur. The Selection also carried a 4lb weight penalty on that occasion and this time will meet his victor Souffleur on level terms. Kayf Aramis gives me doubts because at eight years old it will not be getting any better and a previous run at Aintree at last years meeting was dire. Bouggler is only five years old and has not peaked yet. It is also a winner at Aintree in a Grade 2 Novice when it had very little experience which exemplifies what talent it has when the chips fall into place. I am deadly keen on Bouggler putting the sword to the main players and at big odds could reward backers each way or those that choose to bet just to place on Betfair.
Selection: Bouggler 16-1 EW with various Bookmakers
RACE 2 - Matalan Anniversary 4-Y-O Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 (2.35pm)
This race notoriously goes to favourites with the last five all proving victorious. Trends change though and I cannot help but be impressed with Barizan who ran amok in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham to lead by 15 lengths at one stage only to be beaten by a charging horse in Soldatino on the run in to the line. The rain had got into the ground that day which was not ideal and jockeys described the surface as "dead". Had it still been good ground like earlier in the festival then I have no doubts in my mind that Barizan would have won that race and been a VERY firm favourite here at LESS THAN 2-1. It therefore makes illogical sense to not bet on it here with at the current prices on offer! There is an argument that a 20 day gap may not be long enough between races for it and that could possibly be true, but if the horse is refreshed to just 90% fitness then it will not be outside the first two here. I think its worth a punt against the favourite Sanctuaire who beat easily its rivals in a G3 handicap hurdle at the Festival, but of which there was no real quality amongst them.
Selection:
Barizan 2PTS Win 1PT Place (6-1 Most Bookmakers)
RACE 3 - Totesport Bowl Chase Grade 1 (3.10pm)
The bookmakers are at it again for this race. Trying to make the average punter believe that the race is beyond doubt. Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Imperial Commander is a ready runner and ODDS ON with the odds compilers. Buy why? Trainer Nigel Twiston Davies' comments have been bullish and he thinks this will be easy for his champion, but looking at the statistics it should be far from a cosy walk in the park - despite the lack of opposition!
Favourites first of all have an awful record in this. First Gold won at a short price in 2001 but did not compete at Cheltenham prior to his run. Exotic Dancer won at a short price in 2007 having been runner up to Kauto Star in the Gold Cup previously, however it had an EXTRA week to recover as the festivals that year were FOUR weeks apart and not THREE! It may mean nothing to most people but it is off putting to risk any cash on a horse that is running so soon after a gigantic effort and on a horse who is away from his favoured track of Cheltenham.
Therefore if not selecting the favourite then the only two viable alternatives on form are What A Friend and Nacarat and I am inclined to go with the latter. Nacarat is a proven front runner but can stay happily tracking the pace which he may have to do as Carruthers will want to be at the head of affairs I imagine here. The fact Nacarat avoided a run at Cheltenham bodes well and on a flat track I think this race is there for the taking should Imperial Commander be feeling any effects of its win at Cheltenham. What A Friend will be held up and a switch to Ruby Walsh as jockey is a positive. However the current odds just simply are not viable and the 100 day absence since its last run puts me off it enough.
The horses that are best value in this race are Carruthers and Calgary Bay. They both ran in the Gold Cup but that was too much of a hot race for them there. Calgary Bay made several mistakes but on a flat track the time before at Doncaster he jumped positively so the odds on offer make it a viable outsider. Carruthers will front run and take them along with Nacarat but its unproven when only having a three week gap between racing and looked like it had a tough race in the Gold Cup as it was fighting with Mon Mome for third all the way to the line.
Selection:
Calgary Bay 0.5pts EW 20-1 with Ladbrokes
Nacarat 0.5pts to win 9-2 with Most Bookmakers
RACE 4 - John Smith´s Fox Hunters´ Chase (3.45pm)
During my lunchtime at work I set about trying to narrow the field down for what is my favourite race of the festival barring the Grand National, every year. Amateur riders over the National fences with bodies flying all over the place. Its carnage and great to watch (providing all horses stay safe).
As a result of my lunchtime endeavours I only managed to narrow it down to seven runners which is far too many to be betting on so I'm going to have to use some of my better judgement to get this one right hopefully.
I won the Christie Foxhunter Chase with Baby Run at Cheltenham and that one is the favourite for this race. However this race is five furlongs shorter and on a flat track so I'm abit undecided as to what price this should actually be. At 7-2 I do not see it as value so I am going to have to defer from backing this one on this occasion.
Christy Beamish is another to consider and is one of my favourite horses in training having won me this race back in 2008. However at 13 years old age could be catching up with him and it is unlikely he will improve on last years decent second which he would have to do considerably to beat a horse like Baby Run. I did my research into the horses recent spin on the Point-to-Point scene and it won comfortably at Bangor last month which will have put it in good shape for a crack here.
Others to note are last years winner Trust Fund and last years third place Having A Cut who looked good and may have improved enough now he is a year older.
Such a tight race I do not want to just stick with one horse. I may spread my bets out on this one I'm afraid so I will have to say NO FANCY. Just pick one from those that I have mentioned and hope for some luck!
Selection: Going to have to decide on course because its too difficult to assess.
RACE 5 - Alder Hey Imagine Appeal Red Rum Handicap Chase Grade 3 (4.20pm)
This is one of the races I am interested on Day One of the meeting as it involves a horse I wanted to bet on at Cheltenham in the final race of the meeting. However due to persistent rain that day there was simply no point in betting on it as it was unproven in soft going. Despite that it still ran well and at one point looked like it may actually win before eventually not having enough speed in the mud to continue its challenge. The horse I am talking about is Safari Journey. This pick doesn't really offer much value but as I didn't get to back it at Cheltenham then I at least think I'm allowed one personable bet this time around.
Selection: Safari Journey 1pt TO WIN 8-1 with Ladbrokes
RACE 6 - totepool Manifesto Novices´ Chase Grade 2 (4.55pm)
It's against my better judgement to bet on favourites normally but only when they are not any value. However Somersby impressed me at Cheltenham on a track that was not built to suit it still almost landed the Arkle. At Aintree though this horse should be a different proposition and I would envisage if it has no ill-effects from its Cheltenham run then it will win this one in total command.
Selection: Somersby 1pt To WIN 11-8 Ladbrokes, William Hill, Paddypower
RACE 7 - Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle (5.30pm)
Frequently a lottery this race where outsiders tend to excel. If you are on a losing run then this could be the race to get you out of trouble. Wishfull Thinking I backed at Cheltenham but it fell when looking sure of at least coming 3rd at the very worst. It is no value here however at just 6-1. The horse I've heard nice reports about is Honest John and as I have no firm fancy for this race and because he is a nicely priced 16-1 I am willing to have him run for me each way.
I will also stick Pagan Starprincess into the mix as she is a mare who has run creditably at times this season and the first time visor and more suitable trip here could offer some help for what looks a huge price. Being reunited with Barry Keniry in the saddle will not be a negative either has they form a superb partnership when he used to ride her with 3 victories and 5 places in just 12 career races together.
Selection(s):
Honest John 0.5pts EW 16-1 William Hill, Betfred, Paddypower
Pagan Starprincess 0.5pts EW 28-1 Paddypower
When I visit the racecourse I invariably let my betting get abit loose compared to when I'm betting from home and watching the TV. A day at the races is about enjoyment for me so it feels abit senseless to not have some kind of bet in every race. Therefore as I will be betting in every race I will try and write about my reasoning for each of my SEVEN selections for Day One of the Aintree Grand National Festival.
Race 1 - BGC Partners Liverpool Hurdle Grade 1 (2.00pm)
The result of the winner of this race is already beyond reasonable doubt as Big Bucks the long distance hurdler of its generation takes part here. It would be absolutely criminal for me to even suggest something can beat it. On the figures it has 12lb in hand over likely main challenger Tidal Bay.
However I've done my analysis and I am approaching the race from the Each Way perspective as there will be EIGHT runners lining up now that Time For Rupert will not run. This approach could be shattered though should another horse withdraw before the start as then each way would only pay out on two places (unless betting on the exchanges).
Tiday Bay coming back from a poor showing at Cheltenham may be vulnerable for 2nd place but you have to give it enough respect to say it is ahead of its rivals in terms of ability if on song. A career hurdling record of 10 starts and only ONCE being outside the first 2 tells you that clearly.
Its the race for third place that looks interesting and it is between Bouggler, Kayf Aramis and Souffleur in my eyes and luckily they all competed at Haydock against one another to help me with my form analysis.
My choice for the 3rd place and best challenger for 2nd place is Bouggler. It was an unlucky third at Haydock when interfered with by the eventual winner Souffleur. The Selection also carried a 4lb weight penalty on that occasion and this time will meet his victor Souffleur on level terms. Kayf Aramis gives me doubts because at eight years old it will not be getting any better and a previous run at Aintree at last years meeting was dire. Bouggler is only five years old and has not peaked yet. It is also a winner at Aintree in a Grade 2 Novice when it had very little experience which exemplifies what talent it has when the chips fall into place. I am deadly keen on Bouggler putting the sword to the main players and at big odds could reward backers each way or those that choose to bet just to place on Betfair.
Selection: Bouggler 16-1 EW with various Bookmakers
RACE 2 - Matalan Anniversary 4-Y-O Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 (2.35pm)
This race notoriously goes to favourites with the last five all proving victorious. Trends change though and I cannot help but be impressed with Barizan who ran amok in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham to lead by 15 lengths at one stage only to be beaten by a charging horse in Soldatino on the run in to the line. The rain had got into the ground that day which was not ideal and jockeys described the surface as "dead". Had it still been good ground like earlier in the festival then I have no doubts in my mind that Barizan would have won that race and been a VERY firm favourite here at LESS THAN 2-1. It therefore makes illogical sense to not bet on it here with at the current prices on offer! There is an argument that a 20 day gap may not be long enough between races for it and that could possibly be true, but if the horse is refreshed to just 90% fitness then it will not be outside the first two here. I think its worth a punt against the favourite Sanctuaire who beat easily its rivals in a G3 handicap hurdle at the Festival, but of which there was no real quality amongst them.
Selection:
Barizan 2PTS Win 1PT Place (6-1 Most Bookmakers)
RACE 3 - Totesport Bowl Chase Grade 1 (3.10pm)
The bookmakers are at it again for this race. Trying to make the average punter believe that the race is beyond doubt. Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Imperial Commander is a ready runner and ODDS ON with the odds compilers. Buy why? Trainer Nigel Twiston Davies' comments have been bullish and he thinks this will be easy for his champion, but looking at the statistics it should be far from a cosy walk in the park - despite the lack of opposition!
Favourites first of all have an awful record in this. First Gold won at a short price in 2001 but did not compete at Cheltenham prior to his run. Exotic Dancer won at a short price in 2007 having been runner up to Kauto Star in the Gold Cup previously, however it had an EXTRA week to recover as the festivals that year were FOUR weeks apart and not THREE! It may mean nothing to most people but it is off putting to risk any cash on a horse that is running so soon after a gigantic effort and on a horse who is away from his favoured track of Cheltenham.
Therefore if not selecting the favourite then the only two viable alternatives on form are What A Friend and Nacarat and I am inclined to go with the latter. Nacarat is a proven front runner but can stay happily tracking the pace which he may have to do as Carruthers will want to be at the head of affairs I imagine here. The fact Nacarat avoided a run at Cheltenham bodes well and on a flat track I think this race is there for the taking should Imperial Commander be feeling any effects of its win at Cheltenham. What A Friend will be held up and a switch to Ruby Walsh as jockey is a positive. However the current odds just simply are not viable and the 100 day absence since its last run puts me off it enough.
The horses that are best value in this race are Carruthers and Calgary Bay. They both ran in the Gold Cup but that was too much of a hot race for them there. Calgary Bay made several mistakes but on a flat track the time before at Doncaster he jumped positively so the odds on offer make it a viable outsider. Carruthers will front run and take them along with Nacarat but its unproven when only having a three week gap between racing and looked like it had a tough race in the Gold Cup as it was fighting with Mon Mome for third all the way to the line.
Selection:
Calgary Bay 0.5pts EW 20-1 with Ladbrokes
Nacarat 0.5pts to win 9-2 with Most Bookmakers
RACE 4 - John Smith´s Fox Hunters´ Chase (3.45pm)
During my lunchtime at work I set about trying to narrow the field down for what is my favourite race of the festival barring the Grand National, every year. Amateur riders over the National fences with bodies flying all over the place. Its carnage and great to watch (providing all horses stay safe).
As a result of my lunchtime endeavours I only managed to narrow it down to seven runners which is far too many to be betting on so I'm going to have to use some of my better judgement to get this one right hopefully.
I won the Christie Foxhunter Chase with Baby Run at Cheltenham and that one is the favourite for this race. However this race is five furlongs shorter and on a flat track so I'm abit undecided as to what price this should actually be. At 7-2 I do not see it as value so I am going to have to defer from backing this one on this occasion.
Christy Beamish is another to consider and is one of my favourite horses in training having won me this race back in 2008. However at 13 years old age could be catching up with him and it is unlikely he will improve on last years decent second which he would have to do considerably to beat a horse like Baby Run. I did my research into the horses recent spin on the Point-to-Point scene and it won comfortably at Bangor last month which will have put it in good shape for a crack here.
Others to note are last years winner Trust Fund and last years third place Having A Cut who looked good and may have improved enough now he is a year older.
Such a tight race I do not want to just stick with one horse. I may spread my bets out on this one I'm afraid so I will have to say NO FANCY. Just pick one from those that I have mentioned and hope for some luck!
Selection: Going to have to decide on course because its too difficult to assess.
RACE 5 - Alder Hey Imagine Appeal Red Rum Handicap Chase Grade 3 (4.20pm)
This is one of the races I am interested on Day One of the meeting as it involves a horse I wanted to bet on at Cheltenham in the final race of the meeting. However due to persistent rain that day there was simply no point in betting on it as it was unproven in soft going. Despite that it still ran well and at one point looked like it may actually win before eventually not having enough speed in the mud to continue its challenge. The horse I am talking about is Safari Journey. This pick doesn't really offer much value but as I didn't get to back it at Cheltenham then I at least think I'm allowed one personable bet this time around.
Selection: Safari Journey 1pt TO WIN 8-1 with Ladbrokes
RACE 6 - totepool Manifesto Novices´ Chase Grade 2 (4.55pm)
It's against my better judgement to bet on favourites normally but only when they are not any value. However Somersby impressed me at Cheltenham on a track that was not built to suit it still almost landed the Arkle. At Aintree though this horse should be a different proposition and I would envisage if it has no ill-effects from its Cheltenham run then it will win this one in total command.
Selection: Somersby 1pt To WIN 11-8 Ladbrokes, William Hill, Paddypower
RACE 7 - Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle (5.30pm)
Frequently a lottery this race where outsiders tend to excel. If you are on a losing run then this could be the race to get you out of trouble. Wishfull Thinking I backed at Cheltenham but it fell when looking sure of at least coming 3rd at the very worst. It is no value here however at just 6-1. The horse I've heard nice reports about is Honest John and as I have no firm fancy for this race and because he is a nicely priced 16-1 I am willing to have him run for me each way.
I will also stick Pagan Starprincess into the mix as she is a mare who has run creditably at times this season and the first time visor and more suitable trip here could offer some help for what looks a huge price. Being reunited with Barry Keniry in the saddle will not be a negative either has they form a superb partnership when he used to ride her with 3 victories and 5 places in just 12 career races together.
Selection(s):
Honest John 0.5pts EW 16-1 William Hill, Betfred, Paddypower
Pagan Starprincess 0.5pts EW 28-1 Paddypower
Tuesday, 6 April 2010
The Football Prediction Machine strikes again!
Barcelona vs Arsenal proved to be a money-spinner when I managed to out-do my 2-2 prediction for the first leg with a 4-1 prediction for the return fixture which paid a unbelieveable 22-1 on Expekt.com! Thankyou for being such value giving bookmakers!
Walcott was my God at the Emirates but he was put to one side by the exceptional Messi in this second game.
Four goals for Messi not only made himself a hero but pretty much guarenteed his status as World Player of the Year for yet another season. Sorry Mr Rooney! Your time will come though.
I would have wrote up more but got alot of Aintree stuff to catch up on before I set off on Thursday. The preview for Aintree Day One will be uploaded late on Wednesday.
Walcott was my God at the Emirates but he was put to one side by the exceptional Messi in this second game.
4 Goal Messi - Sublime
Four goals for Messi not only made himself a hero but pretty much guarenteed his status as World Player of the Year for yet another season. Sorry Mr Rooney! Your time will come though.
I would have wrote up more but got alot of Aintree stuff to catch up on before I set off on Thursday. The preview for Aintree Day One will be uploaded late on Wednesday.
US Masters - Golf Preview
All eyes will be on Augusta this weekend as Tiger makes him comeback in an attempt to win the US Masters for the first time with his trousers still up before the end of the four rounds of golf.
It all looks relatively compelling but I will be brutally honest, I am almost two years out of date with my golfing knowledge so you will be well advised to research your own golf picks rather than listen to me!
However I am still going to have a play and having seen some interesting stats and trends I am keen to take part.
Tiger could very well go on and win this but having not had any practice tournament golf prior to the event I am keen to dismiss his chances out of hand - gutsy or stupid? Not sure!
I am going to try my hand with just two pre tournament picks. The first of these being the useful Australian Geoff Ogilvy.
He brings to the table some decent past form and is available at a very likeable price of 47-1 on Betfair. 16th on his Masters debut in 2006 he then went onto be 24th a year later. He had a quiet tournament in 2008 but still made the cut and finished 39th before finishing a personal best of 15th last year. His consistency on the course gives him a chance to improve this year and as he has won on the tour already this season this gives him an added edge. The world number 13 should not be dismissed lightly.
The other player I am going to throw into the mix is the ever impressive Camilo Villegas. World number 12 and winner of the Houston Open this season he comes to the course in decent form. Villegas is a talented putter and although never showing his best form at Augusta he comes into the event this year a better player than ever.
Lets hope one or both are in contention come Sunday evening!
My Selections:
Geoff Ogilvy 47-1 with Betfair
Camilo Villegas 40-1 with William Hill and Ladbrokes
It all looks relatively compelling but I will be brutally honest, I am almost two years out of date with my golfing knowledge so you will be well advised to research your own golf picks rather than listen to me!
However I am still going to have a play and having seen some interesting stats and trends I am keen to take part.
Tiger could very well go on and win this but having not had any practice tournament golf prior to the event I am keen to dismiss his chances out of hand - gutsy or stupid? Not sure!
I am going to try my hand with just two pre tournament picks. The first of these being the useful Australian Geoff Ogilvy.
He brings to the table some decent past form and is available at a very likeable price of 47-1 on Betfair. 16th on his Masters debut in 2006 he then went onto be 24th a year later. He had a quiet tournament in 2008 but still made the cut and finished 39th before finishing a personal best of 15th last year. His consistency on the course gives him a chance to improve this year and as he has won on the tour already this season this gives him an added edge. The world number 13 should not be dismissed lightly.
The other player I am going to throw into the mix is the ever impressive Camilo Villegas. World number 12 and winner of the Houston Open this season he comes to the course in decent form. Villegas is a talented putter and although never showing his best form at Augusta he comes into the event this year a better player than ever.
Lets hope one or both are in contention come Sunday evening!
My Selections:
Geoff Ogilvy 47-1 with Betfair
Camilo Villegas 40-1 with William Hill and Ladbrokes
Barcelona anyone?
After another faller with Mansony I am heading for despair soon! Ridiculous bad luck this last few days but I am still content and have not lost my discipline once. In times gone by, bad luck like this could have ended up costing me hundreds as I would have been accustomed to chasing my losses!
Onwards and upwards though and tonight is the return for the mighty Barcelona and fortunate Arsenal in the Champions League match. I got a good result when the first leg ended 2-2 and I am hopeful of tonight as I firmly believe that Barcelona with home advantage will prove too potent for a weakened Arsenal side.
I struggle to see Arsenal retaining any sort of possession on one of the biggest pitches in Europe. In my head though I am allowing for Arsenal to score at some stage during the game. Arsenal will be very keen to defend well as going behind early could make it a very long, tiring and tedious evening for them.
Barcelona do have injuries and suspensions which weakens their side but they should have too much for an Arsenal team that is best described as just "pretty good" when Fabregas is not present.
My Selections:
0.5pts on each of the below -
3-1 Barcelona 10-1 with various Bookmakers
4-0 Barcelona 19-1 with Expekt
4-1 Barcelona 22-1 with Expekt
*Expekt is an International Bookmaker that offers value odds on certain markets. Luckily this time its value on two scorelines I think could occur!
Onwards and upwards though and tonight is the return for the mighty Barcelona and fortunate Arsenal in the Champions League match. I got a good result when the first leg ended 2-2 and I am hopeful of tonight as I firmly believe that Barcelona with home advantage will prove too potent for a weakened Arsenal side.
I struggle to see Arsenal retaining any sort of possession on one of the biggest pitches in Europe. In my head though I am allowing for Arsenal to score at some stage during the game. Arsenal will be very keen to defend well as going behind early could make it a very long, tiring and tedious evening for them.
Barcelona do have injuries and suspensions which weakens their side but they should have too much for an Arsenal team that is best described as just "pretty good" when Fabregas is not present.
My Selections:
0.5pts on each of the below -
3-1 Barcelona 10-1 with various Bookmakers
4-0 Barcelona 19-1 with Expekt
4-1 Barcelona 22-1 with Expekt
*Expekt is an International Bookmaker that offers value odds on certain markets. Luckily this time its value on two scorelines I think could occur!
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