Saturday, 10 April 2010

Aintree Day 3 - In-running Updates

5.18PM Update:
I am signing out with my final update. The Aintree Champion Bumper is on next and two horses that catch my eye are DARE ME and ROYAL SWAIN. The latter is interesting due to the trainer commenting it is the "best" bumper horse he has ever trained, yet he has won this Champion Bumper before with another horse so 15-2 is great value based on that quote I feel. Dare Me I watched at Haydock once and he ran a decent race in the Cheltenham Bumper recently which can often be a good prep run for here. Interesting.

Both backed to win.
Dare Me 12-1 Various Bookmakers
Royal Swain 15-2 William Hill

4.39PM Update:Expensive! But great to watch and worth it really. I was lost throughout the race as I was looking for a GREY HORSE, when infact my main pick was a BAY - SNOWY MORNING. God knows where I got the idea it was grey from. The word Snowy must have confused me! Glad Mr McCoy won but how bent are the bookies? EVERY single horse shortened right before the off so that payouts would be much less. Disgusting cheats the lot of them!

3.59PM Update:I won't have a clue which are my horses due to having so many on my book so just going to watch Snowy Morning run round as thats my biggest stake and at least its a grey horse so I can see it!

3.54PM Update:Looking forward to the National but not forgetting the race after it. It is an amateur rider race which normally means I do not touch. However a horse running for Phillip Hobbs and is 2 from 2 around Aintree catches the eye. Nampour is the horse and Giles Hawkins rides who will claim 5lb. Interesting.

1pt EW Nampour 5.00PM 31-1 on Betfair

3.50PM Update:
Last race was definately my worst of the festival. One fell and the other two made too many mistakes. A wasteful race.

Grand National up next. Already detailed my bets in the Grand National preview but put a tiny stake on Niche Market and had a look through my bets and it appears I have a place bet on Cerium on my book. Think I've backed everything in the race! Going to be a speed fest I feel with a few flapping late on so the chasers should come to the fore later on.

Best of luck.

3.10PM Update:
Next race at 3.25pm is a competitive affair and I think the Henderson duo of Wogan and Au Courant have pretty strong claims and are both unexposed after only 8 chase races each to date.

Another that interests me at a massive price is Jaunty Flight at 40-1 could be the shock. I might risk a tricast (mugs bet) and see how it goes. I'll have a little single on each of them though.

0.5pt stakes on Wogan, Au Courant and Jaunty Flight.

3.01PM Update:
Unlucky. Fell and Ruby Walsh out of the National now. Annoyed as I had put a few quid on it to place to get most of my stake back. Nevermind, better luck to follow I hope.

2.30PM Update:
Nicholls finally got his Aintree into gear there with a easy win and I definately think he can follow up here with Celestial Halo now that the blinkers have been dispensed with. They most likely hindered it in the Champion Hurdle and left off here it will be much closer to Zaynar and I think has the potential to beat that rival. At the prices I am happy to bet Celestial Halo here despite the lack of experience over the 2m 4f trip.

1pt WIN 5-1 Celestial Halo with Betfred

2.25PM Update:
Answers on a postcard please, just how did Archie Boy grab a place? He was LAST 4 furlongs out and going backwards. Shows you just how fast they went! Lucky to get a place there. PHEW!

2.01PM Update:Archie Boy is calling me out at the 20-1 on Betfair. Trainer has aimed it at this race and it looked as though it was developing well on fast ground end of last year. Been given a break and a get-fit run over hurdles since and could be worth a chance in the next as the favourites all give me doubts and Bergo been subject to very strange betting patterns on Betfair.

Archie Boy 20-1 Betfair to WIN. Covering to place.

1.27PM Update:
Lucky William looks like it could be the one now 1.45PM as it is getting alot of support from all over. 11-1 now from 14-1, do they know? Or have they just been reading this. Joke.

12.59PM Update:
Glancing over some of the other races and I cant find an angle on the third race which is the Aintree Hurdle. There is still time though. As for the second race, the Maghull Novices Chase, it looks a substandard renewal based on past years. The interesting stat for this race is that for the last 15 years the winner of this has previously run in the ARKLE at Cheltenham. Only Osana comes here from that race this year but will it be suited by Aintree's flat speed track? Very unsure and at 11-4 at the moment I'm not planning on paying to find out! Tataniano could be dangerous and will lead them along most likely at a decent gallop, but the one that could benefit from conditions is Bergo. A former G3 placed runner in Germany on the flat he has proved very adaptable since coming to Britain for a jumping career. With plenty of pace on he could be running on strong at the end. Not going to bet on it yet though, I'm keeping track of the price movements for clues.

11.43AM Update:
Still looking at the opening race and I cannot be having the irish raider Lucky William being 14-1. It has some useful Graded form from Ireland and although conditions will probably not be ideal as it would prefer some juice, its far too big a price to completely leave alone.

Updated Selections:

Duke Of Lucca 8-1 2pts
Lucky William 14-1 0.5pts

11.16AM Update:
First race looks ridiculous market wise. Peddlers Cross does appear to be the best horse in the field and I did win with it at Cheltenham but at even money here there is no value whatsoever. On the Official Ratings the first four in the field are seperated by just 4lb yet two of them can be backed at 9-1 and 8-1 where as the other two "Cheltenham" horses are 5-1 and EVEN money. Sad state of affairs and another bookmaker attempt to fool the dozey drunken punters!

I am far more interested in the two horses that avoided Cheltenham to come straight here. Bygones Of Brid is one of those two but trainer has stated previously that the horse needs some juice in the ground and it is hard to envisage too much of that after several days of sunshine. Therefore I am going to pass on it and take Duke Of Lucca to one side as the value bet of the race!

This horse has had four starts over hurdles and won three. The only time it has been beaten is when it ran in a bog and couldn't cope with the heavy ground. It also put Pistolet Noir to one side with ease last time and that horse was third here in a Listed handicap race the other day which helps the form look decent.

In my view is a far better value bet than the two market principles. Hope for a good start!

Duke Of Lucca - 2pts WIN 8-1 with nearly all bookmakers
(covering to place on Betfair)

10.31AM Update:
Well yesterday may have been a fluke but blogging in-running helped me find General Miller at 14-1 and Always Waining at 28-1 so if it is not broken do not fix it. Therefore I am scrapping the preview post today and just writing on here as the day progresses. Hopefully the luck carries over for a third day.

1 comment:

  1. the blog aint good for me having to pop out to the bookies every 5 minutes!!going to run out of petrol!!