The antepost market for the Fairyhouse Irish Grand National is quite complex at present but it would appear that there is a strong possibility that the horse Saddlers Storm who heads the current antepost betting may not run. Indeed in anycase, that horse is trained by A J Martin and we all know what his horses are like and I wouldn't trust his runners with any of my money regardless.
The trends are very strong for this race.
The most signifcant ones from the last decade include:
ALL winners had raced in less than 8 handicap chases.
ALL winners had raced in no more than 13 chases in total.
ALL winners had to have at least placed in a race worth 19k, preferably have won one.
ALL winners had won on a right handed track.
and finally 9 out of 10 had ran in the last 50 days so fitness has to be proven.
There is also the interesting statistic on official ratings which can shorten the field dramatically.
9 out of 10 winners in recent times had been rated between 125 and 136 over fences.
It is as safe as running through Afghanistan with a 'Shoot Me' sign to totally disregard anything weighted above 11 stone therefore.
Bluesea Cracker (33-1) is the best trend horse if that is the approach you want to take.
But before you do then it is important to realise that only two mares have won in the last 40 years!
Any horse older than 10 can be ignored too. Looking through past years then only the famous DESERT ORCHID has managed to win at a double figured age in 30 years!
My early thoughts are the ground is definately going to be heavy and it will be a slog and a horse that looks very interesting and as though it will love a trip over this distance is WILL JAMIE RUN.
The horse has had an ideal preparation for this race with 2 recent spins over hurdles. It will carry a fly-weight for the national and despite being 9 years of age is relatively unexposed, especially over the longer distances.
33-1 is currently available with several bookies and so that is my selection this early on as that price looks very favourable considering it compares well to the trends aswell.
(Please note WILL JAMIE RUN is number 59 on the Antepost list and needs 29 to pull out before him as 30 runners is the maximum field allowed. However the antepost favourite is number 58 on the list and so it does look like many of the runners will bypass this race so the answer to WILL JAMIE RUN? is I think so!)